A state space model for exponential smoothing with group seasonality

We present an approach to improve forecast accuracy by simultaneously forecasting a group of products that exhibit similar seasonal demand patterns. Better seasonality estimates can be made by using information on all products in a group, and using these improved estimates when forecasting at the individual product level. This approach is called the group seasonal indices (GSI) approach, and is a generalization of the classical Holt-Winters procedure. This article describes an underlying state space model for this method and presents simulation results that show when it yields more accurate forecasts than Holt-Winters.Common seasonality; demand forecasting; exponential smoothing; Holt-Winters; state space model.

Temperature dependent NIR emitting lanthanide-PMO/silica hybrid materials

Two materials - a mesoporous silica (MS) and a periodic mesoporous organosilica (PMO) functionalized with dipyridyl-pyridazine (dppz) units were grafted with near-infrared (NIR) emitting lanthanide (Nd3+, Er3+, Yb3+) complexes in an attempt to obtain hybrid NIR emitting materials. The parent materials: dppz-vSilica and dppz-ePMO were prepared by a hetero Diels-Alder reaction between 3,6-di(2-pyridyl)-1,2,4,5- tetrazine (dptz) and the double bonds of either ethenylene-bridged PMO (ePMO) or vinyl-silica (vSilica) and subsequent oxidation. The dppz-vSilica is reported here for the first time. The prepared lanthanide-PMO/silica hybrid materials were studied in depth for their luminescence properties at room temperature and chosen Nd3+ and Yb3+ samples also at low temperature (as low as 10 K). We show that both the dppz-vSilica and dppz-ePMO materials can be used as "platforms" for obtaining porous materials showing NIR luminescence. To obtain NIR emission these materials can be excited either in the UV or Vis region (into the pi -> pi* transitions of the ligands or directly into the f-f transitions of the Ln(3+) ions). More interestingly, when functionalized with Nd3+ or Yb3+ beta-diketonate complexes these materials showed interesting luminescence properties over a wide temperature range (10-360 K). The Yb3+ materials were investigated for their potential use as ratiometric temperature sensors

Lactobacillus species causing obesity in humans: where is the evidence?

By definition, probiotics are to provide health benefits, and are expected not to cause any adverse effects in the general population. Recently, it has been suggested that probiotics, and in particular lactobacilli are contributing to human obesity. Here, we critically review the data available on this topic. The main misconception in this hypothesis is that growth in livestock and children equals with obesity in adults. The former two are expected to grow and probiotics may, by reducing disease risk, contribute to an improved growth. It is not correct to extrapolate this growth (of all tissues) to body weight gain (growth of adipose tissue) in adults. Furthermore, when looking at animal models of obesity, it even appears the lactobacilli may potentially contribute to a reduction in body weight. Epidemiological studies lend strength to this. We therefore conclude that there is no evidence that consumption of lactobacilli or probiotics in general would contribute to obesity in humans

The moisture effect on 223Ra and 224Ra measurements using Mn-cartridges

Important processes in the ocean can be evaluated with radioactive nuclides, including radium isotopes. An approach for quantifying radium isotopes in seawater with in-situ pumps has been developed in advance of the GEOTRACES program [1]. Precise measurements of 223Ra and 224Ra by means of the delayed coincidence counting system (RaDeCC) [2] are dependent on the moisture content of the medium [3]. In order to verify the optimum moisture content for this new approach, a set of measurements of the Mn-cartridge standards under different moisture conditions was conducted, as this was done previously for acrylic fiber. At a time, an amount of water equivalent to 5% of the cartridges weight was added, and the activities were determined. The variation of 224Ra activity occurs mainly between 0 to 15% of humidity. Under moisture conditions higher than 15%, the emanation efficiency reaches an optimum plateau until 100% of moisture. This result differs slightly from those found for 224Ra measurements using the acrylic fiber (plateau from 30 to 100 %) [3]. The 223Ra Mn-cartridge standard reaches the plateau under 5% of humidity, and above 50% moisture the activity seems to decrease. Considering the counting error (7%), it is hard to state that the effect of the moisture is critical. However, this decrease can be related to the shorter half-life of the 219Rn compared to the time needed to its diffusion through the water film, which could be a reason for the frequently observed lower efficiency of the 223Ra channel of the RaDeCC system [4]. [1] Henderson et al. (2013) J. Radioanal. Nucl. Chem. 296, 357–362. [2] Moore and Arnold (1996) J. Geophys. Res. 101, 321–1329. [3] Sun and Torgersen (1998) Mar. Chem. 61, 163–171. [4] Charette et al. (2012) Limnol. Oceanogr. 10, 451–463

Holy Apparition or Hyper-Religiosity:Prevalence of Explanatory Models for Religious and Spiritual Experiences in Patients with Bipolar Disorder and Their Associations with Religiousness

One point that emerges from qualitative research on religion and bipolar disorder (BD) is the problem patients with BD experience in distinguishing between genuine religious experiences and hyper-religiosity. However, clinical practice does not obviously address communication about differences in explanatory models for illness experiences. The aim of the current study is first to estimate the frequencies of different types of explanations (medical versus religious) for experiences perceived as religious and related to BD, second to explore how these types relate to diagnosis and religiousness, and third to explore the frequency of expectation of treatment for religiosity. In total, 196 adult patients at a specialist outpatient center for BD in the Netherlands completed a questionnaire consisting of seven types of explanations for religious experiences and several items on religiousness. Of the participants who had had religious experiences (66%), 46% viewed the experiences as 'part of spiritual development' and 42% as 'both spiritual and pathological,' 31% reported 'keeping distance from such experiences,' and 15% viewed them as 'only pathological.' Measures of religiousness were positively associated with 'part of spiritual development' and negatively associated with 'keeping distance from the experiences' and 'only pathological.' Half of the sample viewed religiosity as an important topic in treatment. It can be hypothesized that strength of religiousness may help people to integrate destabilizing experiences related to BD into their spiritual development. However, the ambiguity of strong religious involvement in BD necessitates careful exploration of the subject in clinical practice

Influence of 2 '-fucosyllactose and galacto-oligosaccharides on the growth and adhesion of Streptococcus mutans

Human milk oligosaccharides, such as 2 '-fucosyllactose (2 '-FL), and galacto-oligosaccharides (GOS), a prebiotic carbohydrate mixture, are being increasingly added to infant formulas, necessitating the understanding of their impact on the oral microbiota. Here, for the first time, the effects of 2 '-FL and GOS on the planktonic growth and adhesion characteristics of the caries-associated oral pathogenStreptococcus mutanswere assessed, and the results were compared against the effects of xylitol, lactose and glucose. There were differences inS. mutansgrowth between 2 '-FL and GOS. None of the threeS. mutansstrains grew with 2 '-FL, while they all grew with GOS as well as lactose and glucose. Xylitol inhibitedS. mutansgrowth. The adhesion ofS. mutansCI 2366 to saliva-coated hydroxyapatite was reduced by 2 '-FL and GOS. Exopolysaccharide-mediated adhesion ofS. mutansDSM 20523 to a glass surface was decreased with 2 '-FL, GOS and lactose, and the adhesion of strain CI 2366 strain was reduced only by GOS. Unlike GOS, 2 '-FL did not support the growth of anyS. mutansstrain. Neither 2 '-FL nor GOS enhanced the adhesive properties of theS. mutansstrains, but they inhibited some of the tested strains. Thus, the cariogenic tendency may vary between infant formulas containing different types of oligosaccharides

Koi-kamsalamander

Animal sciencesNaturali