Estimating the need for inpatient neonatal services: an iterative approach employing evidence and expert consensus to guide local policy in Kenya.

Universal access to quality newborn health services will be essential to meeting specific Sustainable Development Goals to reduce neonatal and overall child mortality. Data for decision making are crucial for planning services and monitoring progress in these endeavours. However, gaps in local population-level and facility-based data hinder estimation of health service requirements for effective planning in many low-income and middle-income settings. We worked with local policy makers and experts in Nairobi City County, an area with a population of four million and the highest neonatal mortality rate amongst counties in Kenya, to address this gap, and developed a systematic approach to use available data to support policy and planning. We developed a framework to identify major neonatal conditions likely to require inpatient neonatal care and identified estimates of incidence through literature review and expert consultation, to give an overall estimate for the year 2017 of the need for inpatient neonatal care, taking account of potential comorbidities. Our estimates suggest that almost 1 in 5 newborns (183/1000 live births) in Nairobi City County may need inpatient care, resulting in an estimated 24 161 newborns expected to require care in 2017. Our approach has been well received by local experts, who showed a willingness to work together and engage in the use of evidence in healthcare planning. The process highlighted the need for co-ordinated thinking on admission policy and referral care especially in a pluralistic provider environment helping build further appetite for data-informed decision making

Hospital Mortality - a neglected but rich source of information supporting the transition to higher quality health systems in low and middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing focus on the strength of primary health care systems in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). There are important roles for higher quality district hospital care within these systems. These hospitals are also sources of information of considerable importance to health systems, but this role, as with the wider roles of district hospitals, has been neglected. KEY MESSAGES: As we make efforts to develop higher quality health systems in LMIC we highlight the critical importance of district hospitals focusing here on how data on hospital mortality offers value: i) in understanding disease burden; ii) as part of surveillance and impact monitoring; iii) as an entry point to exploring system failures; and iv) as a lens to examine variability in health system performance and possibly as a measure of health system quality in its own right. However, attention needs paying to improving data quality by addressing reporting gaps and cause of death reporting. Ideally enabling the collection of basic, standardised patient level data might support at least simple case-mix and case-severity adjustment helping us understand variation. Better mortality data could support impact evaluation, benchmarking, exploration of links between health system inputs and outcomes and critical scrutiny of geographic variation in quality and outcomes of care. Improved hospital information is a neglected but broadly valuable public good. CONCLUSION: Accurate, complete and timely hospital mortality reporting is a key attribute of a functioning health system. It can support countries' efforts to transition to higher quality health systems in LMIC enabling national and local advocacy, accountability and action

Presence and distribution of mosquito larvae predators and factors influencing their abundance along the Mara River, Kenya and Tanzania

Among all the malaria controlling measures, biological control of mosquito larvae may be the cheapest and easiest to implement. This study investigated baseline predation of immature mosquitoes by macroinvertebrate predators along the Mara River, determined the diversity of predators and mosquito larvae habitats and the range of their adaptive capacity to water physico-chemical parameters. Between July and August 2011, sampling sites (n=39) along the Mara River were selected and investigated for the presence of macroinvertebrate predators and mosquito larvae. The selected sampling sites were geocoded and each dipped 20 times using standard mosquito larvae dipper to sample mosquito larvae, while a D-frame dip net was used to capture the macroinvertebrate predators. Water physico-chemical parameters (dissolved oxygen, temperature, pH, conductivity, salinity and turbidity) were taken in situ at access points, while hardness and alkalinity were measured titrimetically. The influence of macroinvertebrate predator occurrence was correlated with mosquito larvae and water quality parameters using Generalized Linear Model (GLM). Predators (n=297) belonging to 3 orders of Hemiptera (54.2%), Odonata (22.9%) and Coleoptera (22.9%), and mosquito larvae (n=4001) belonging to 10 species, which included An.gambiae s.l (44.9%), Culex spp. (34.8%) and An. coustani complex (13.8%), An. maculipalpis (3.6%), An. phaorensis (1.2%), An. funestus group (0.5%), An. azaniae (0.4%), An. hamoni (0.3%), An. christyi (0.3%), An. ardensis (0.08%), An. faini (0.07%), An. sergentii (0.05%) and 0.05% of Aedes mosquito larvae which were not identified to species level, due to lack of an appropriate key, were captured from different habitats along the Mara river. It was established that invasion of habitats by the macroinvertebrate predators were partially driven by the presence of mosquito larvae (p < 0.001), and the prevailing water physico-chemical parameters (DO, temperature, and turbidity, p <0.001). Understanding abiotic and biotic factors which favour mosquitoes and macroinveterbrate co-occurrence may contribute to the control of malaria

Autoantibody levels are associated with acute kidney injury, anemia and post-discharge morbidity and mortality in Ugandan children with severe malaria

Autoantibodies targeting host antigens contribute to autoimmune disorders, frequently occur during and after infections and have been proposed to contribute to malaria-induced anemia. We measured anti-phosphatidylserine (PS) and anti-DNA antibody levels in 382 Ugandan children prospectively recruited in a study of severe malaria (SM). High antibody levels were defined as antibody levels greater than the mean plus 3 standard deviations of community children (CC). We observed increases in median levels of anti-PS and anti-DNA antibodies in children with SM compared to CC (p < 0.0001 for both). Children with severe malarial anemia were more likely to have high anti-PS antibodies than children with cerebral malaria (16.4% vs. 7.4%), p = 0.02. Increases in anti-PS and anti-DNA antibodies were associated with decreased hemoglobin (p < 0.05). A one-unit increase in anti-DNA antibodies was associated with a 2.99 (95% CI, 1.68, 5.31) increase odds of acute kidney injury (AKI) (p < 0.0001). Elevated anti-PS and anti-DNA antibodies were associated with post-discharge mortality (p = 0.031 and p = 0.042, respectively). Children with high anti-PS antibodies were more likely to have multiple hospital readmissions compared to children with normal anti-PS antibody levels (p < 0.05). SM is associated with increased autoantibodies against PS and DNA. Autoantibodies were associated with anemia, AKI, post-discharge mortality, and hospital readmission

Coordination mechanisms for COVID-19 in the WHO Regional office for Africa

Aim: this study describes the coordination mechanisms that have been used for management of the COVID-19 pandemic in the WHO AFRO region; relate the patterns of the disease (length of time between onset of coordination and first case; length of the wave of the disease and peak attack rate) to coordination mechanisms established at the national level, and document best practices and lessons learned. Method: We did a retrospective policy tracing of the COVID-19 coordination mechanisms from March 2020 (when first cases of COVID-19 in the AFRO region were reported) to the end of the third wave in September 2021. Data sources were from document and Literature review of COVID-19 response strategies, plans, regulations, press releases, government websites, grey and peer-reviewed literature. The data was extracted to Excel file database and coded then analysed using Stata (version 15). Analysis was done through descriptive statistical analysis (using measures of central tendencies (Mean, DS, and median) and measures of central dispersion (range)), multiple linear regression, and thematic analysis of qualitative data. Results: There are three distinct layered coordination mechanisms (strategic, operational, and tactical) that were either implemented singularly or in tandem with another coordination mechanism. 87.23% (n=41) of the countries initiated strategic coordination, and 59.57% (n=28) initiated some form of operational coordination. Some of countries (n=26,55.32%) provided operational coordination using functional Public Health Emergency Operation Centres (PHEOCs) which were activated for the response. 31.91% (n=15) of the countries initiated some form of tactical coordination which involved the decentralisation of the operations at the local/grassroot level/district/ county levels. Decentralisation strategies played a key role in coordination, as was the innovative strategies by the countries; some coordination mechanisms built on already existing coordination systems and the heads of states were effective in the success of the coordination process. Financing posed challenge to majority of the countries in initiating coordination. Conclusion: Coordinating an emergency is a multidimensional process that includes having decision-makers and institutional agents define and prioritise policies and norms that contain the spread of the disease, regulate activities and behaviour and citizens, and respond to personnel who coordinate prevention

Plasma angiopoietin-2 is associated with age-related deficits in cognitive sub-scales in Ugandan children following severe malaria

Background: Elevated angiopoietin-2 (Angpt-2) concentrations are associated with worse overall neurocognitive function in severe malaria survivors, but the specific domains affected have not been elucidated. Methods: Ugandan children with severe malaria underwent neurocognitive evaluation a week after hospital discharge and at 6, 12 and 24 months follow-up. The relationship between Angpt-2 concentrations and age-adjusted, cognitive sub-scale z-scores over time were evaluated using linear mixed effects models, adjusting for disease severity (coma, acute kidney injury, number of seizures in hospital) and sociodemographic factors (age, gender, height-for-age z-score, socio-economic status, enrichment in the home environment, parental education, and any preschool education of the child). The Mullen Scales of Early Learning was used in children < 5 years and the Kaufman Assessment Battery for Children 2nd edition was used in children ≥ 5 years of age. Angpt-2 levels were measured on admission plasma samples by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Adjustment for multiple comparisons was conducted using the Benjamini-Hochberg Procedure of False Discovery Rate. Results: Increased admission Angpt-2 concentration was associated with worse outcomes in all domains (fine and gross motor, visual reception, receptive and expressive language) in children < 5 years of age at the time of severe malaria episode, and worse simultaneous processing and learning in children < 5 years of age at the time of severe malaria who were tested when ≥ 5 years of age. No association was seen between Angpt-2 levels and cognitive outcomes in children ≥ 5 years at the time of severe malaria episode, but numbers of children and testing time points were lower for children ≥ 5 years at the time of severe malaria episode. Conclusion: Elevated Angpt-2 concentration in children with severe malaria is associated with worse outcomes in multiple neurocognitive domains. The relationship between Angpt-2 and worse cognition is evident in children < 5 years of age at the time of severe malaria presentation and in selected domains in older years

Endothelial Activation, Acute Kidney Injury, and Cognitive Impairment in Pediatric Severe Malaria

Objectives: Evaluate the relationship between endothelial activation, malaria complications, and long-term cognitive outcomes in severe malaria survivors. Design: Prospectively cohort study of children with cerebral malaria, severe malarial anemia, or community children. Setting: Mulago National Referral Hospital in Kampala, Uganda. Subjects: Children 18 months to 12 years old with severe malaria (cerebral malaria, n = 253 or severe malarial anemia, n = 211) or community children (n = 206) were followed for 24 months. Interventions: None. Measurements and main results: Children underwent neurocognitive evaluation at enrollment (community children) or a week following hospital discharge (severe malaria) and 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up. Endothelial activation was assessed at admission on plasma samples (von Willebrand factor, angiopoietin-1 and angiopoietin-2, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule-1, soluble E-Selectin, and P-Selectin). False discovery rate was used to adjust for multiple comparisons. Severe malaria was associated with widespread endothelial activation compared with community children (p < 0.0001 for all markers). Acute kidney injury was independently associated with changes in von Willebrand factor, soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1, soluble E-Selectin, P-Selectin, and angiopoietin-2 (p < 0.0001 for all). A log10 increase in angiopoietin-2 was associated with lower cognitive z scores across age groups (children < 5, β -0.42, 95% CI, -0.69 to -0.15, p = 0.002; children ≥ 5, β -0.39, 95% CI, -0.67 to -0.11, p = 0.007) independent of disease severity (coma, number of seizures, acute kidney injury) and sociodemographic factors. Angiopoietin-2 was associated with hemolysis (lactate dehydrogenase, total bilirubin) and inflammation (tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-10). In children with cerebral malaria who had a lumbar puncture performed, angiopoietin-2 was associated with blood-brain barrier dysfunction, and markers of neuroinflammation and injury in the cerebrospinal fluid (tumor necrosis factor-α, kynurenic acid, tau). Conclusions: These data support angiopoietin-2 as a measure of disease severity and a risk factor for long-term cognitive injury in children with severe malaria

Multiple evolutionary origins of Trypanosoma evansi in Kenya

Trypanosoma evansi is the parasite causing surra, a form of trypanosomiasis in camels and other livestock, and a serious economic burden in Kenya and many other parts of the world. Trypanosoma evansi transmission can be sustained mechanically by tabanid and Stomoxys biting flies, whereas the closely related African trypanosomes T. brucei brucei and T. b. rhodesiense require cyclical development in tsetse flies (genus Glossina) for transmission. In this study, we investigated the evolutionary origins of T. evansi. We used 15 polymorphic microsatellites to quantify levels and patterns of genetic diversity among 41 T. evansi isolates and 66 isolates of T. b. brucei (n = 51) and T. b. rhodesiense (n = 15), including many from Kenya, a region where T. evansi may have evolved from T. brucei. We found that T. evansi strains belong to at least two distinct T. brucei genetic units and contain genetic diversity that is similar to that in T. brucei strains. Results indicated that the 41 T. evansi isolates originated from multiple T. brucei strains from different genetic backgrounds, implying independent origins of T. evansi from T. brucei strains. This surprising finding further suggested that the acquisition of the ability of T. evansi to be transmitted mechanically, and thus the ability to escape the obligate link with the African tsetse fly vector, has occurred repeatedly. These findings, if confirmed, have epidemiological implications, as T. brucei strains from different genetic backgrounds can become either causative agents of a dangerous, cosmopolitan livestock disease or of a lethal human disease, like for T. b. rhodesiense

Genome sequence of the tsetse fly (Glossina morsitans):Vector of African trypanosomiasis

Tsetse flies are the sole vectors of human African trypanosomiasis throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Both sexes of adult tsetse feed exclusively on blood and contribute to disease transmission. Notable differences between tsetse and other disease vectors include obligate microbial symbioses, viviparous reproduction, and lactation. Here, we describe the sequence and annotation of the 366-megabase Glossina morsitans morsitans genome. Analysis of the genome and the 12,308 predicted protein-encoding genes led to multiple discoveries, including chromosomal integrations of bacterial (Wolbachia) genome sequences, a family of lactation-specific proteins, reduced complement of host pathogen recognition proteins, and reduced olfaction/chemosensory associated genes. These genome data provide a foundation for research into trypanosomiasis prevention and yield important insights with broad implications for multiple aspects of tsetse biology.IS

A year of genomic surveillance reveals how the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic unfolded in Africa.

The progression of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic in Africa has so far been heterogeneous, and the full impact is not yet well understood. In this study, we describe the genomic epidemiology using a dataset of 8746 genomes from 33 African countries and two overseas territories. We show that the epidemics in most countries were initiated by importations predominantly from Europe, which diminished after the early introduction of international travel restrictions. As the pandemic progressed, ongoing transmission in many countries and increasing mobility led to the emergence and spread within the continent of many variants of concern and interest, such as B.1.351, B.1.525, A.23.1, and C.1.1. Although distorted by low sampling numbers and blind spots, the findings highlight that Africa must not be left behind in the global pandemic response, otherwise it could become a source for new variants