StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate-biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth's history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.Stuart C. Brown, Tom M. L. Wigley, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner and Damien A. Fordha

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi400, E280) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations

A "critical" climatic evaluation of last interglacial (MIS 5e) records from the Norwegian Sea

Sediment cores from the Norwegian Sea were studied to evaluate interglacial climate conditions of the marine isotope stage 5e (MIS 5e). Using planktic forminiferal assemblages as the core method, a detailed picture of the evolution of surface water conditions was derived. According to our age model, a step-like deglaciation of the Saalian ice sheets is noted between ca. 135 and 124.5 Kya, but the deglaciation shows little response with regard to surface ocean warming. From then on, the rapidly increasing abundance of subpolar forminifers, concomitant with decreasing iceberg indicators, provides evidence for the development of interglacial conditions sensu stricto (5e-ss), a period that lasted for about 9 Ky. As interpreted from the foraminiferal records, and supported by the other proxies, this interval of 5e-ss was in two parts: showing an early warm phase, but with a fresher, i.e., lower salinity, water mass, and a subsequent cooling phase that lasted until ca. 118.5 Kya. After this time, the climatic optimum with the most intense advection of Atlantic surface water masses occurred until ca. 116 Kya. A rapid transition with two notable climatic perturbations is observed subsequently during the glacial inception. Overall, the peak warmth of the last interglacial period occurred relatively late after deglaciation, and at no time did it reach the high warmth level of the early Holocene. This finding must be considered when using the last interglacial situation as an analogue model for enhanced meridional transfer of ocean heat to the Arctic, with the prospect of a future warmer climate

towards a better understanding of the latest warm climate: the PmiP last interglacial Working group

International audienceThe Last Interglacial is one of the five priorities within the CMIP6-PMIP4 initiative. Its 127 kyr BP model experiment allows for an assessment of climate model fidelity during a period of Northern Hemisphere warmth, sea-level high stand, and regional hydroclimate changes

The response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum forcing: Implications for detection in proxies

International audienceThe response of the Walker circulation to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) forcing is analyzed using an ensemble of six coordinated coupled climate model experiments. The tropical atmospheric overturning circulation strengthens in all models in a manner that is dictated by the response of the hydrological cycle to tropical cooling. This response arises from the same mechanism that has been found to explain the weakening of the tropical circulation in response to anthropogenic global warming but with opposite sign. Analysis of the model differences shows that the ascending branch of the Walker circulation strengthens via this mechanism but vertical motion also weakens over areas of the Maritime Continent exposed due to lower sea level. Each model exhibits a different balance between these two mechanisms, and the result is a Pacific Walker circulation response that is not robust. Further, even those models that simulate a stronger Walker circulation during the LGM do not simulate clear patterns of surface cooling, such as La Niña-like cooling or enhanced equatorial cooling, as proposed by previous studies. In contrast, the changes in the Walker circulation have a robust and distinctive signature on the tilt of the equatorial thermocline, as expected from zonal momentum balance. The changes in the Walker circulation also have a clear signature on the spatial pattern of the precipitation changes. A reduction of the east-west salinity contrast in the Indian Ocean is related to the precipitation changes resulting from a weakening of the Indian Walker circulation. These results indicate that proxies of thermocline depth and sea surface salinity can be used to detect actual LGM changes in the Pacific and Indian Walker circulations, respectively, and help to constrain the sensitivity of the Walker circulation to tropical cooling