Multi-timescale Solar Cycles and the Possible Implications

Based on analysis of the annual averaged relative sunspot number (ASN) during 1700 -- 2009, 3 kinds of solar cycles are confirmed: the well-known 11-yr cycle (Schwabe cycle), 103-yr secular cycle (numbered as G1, G2, G3, and G4, respectively since 1700); and 51.5-yr Cycle. From similarities, an extrapolation of forthcoming solar cycles is made, and found that the solar cycle 24 will be a relative long and weak Schwabe cycle, which may reach to its apex around 2012-2014 in the vale between G3 and G4. Additionally, most Schwabe cycles are asymmetric with rapidly rising-phases and slowly decay-phases. The comparisons between ASN and the annual flare numbers with different GOES classes (C-class, M-class, X-class, and super-flare, here super-flare is defined as $\geq$ X10.0) and the annal averaged radio flux at frequency of 2.84 GHz indicate that solar flares have a tendency: the more powerful of the flare, the later it takes place after the onset of the Schwabe cycle, and most powerful flares take place in the decay phase of Schwabe cycle. Some discussions on the origin of solar cycles are presented.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation

The causes of Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions (60,000 to 11,650 years ago, hereafter 60 to 11.65 ka) remain contentious, with major phases coinciding with both human arrival and climate change around the world. The Americas provide a unique opportunity to disentangle these factors as human colonization took place over a narrow time frame (~15 to 14.6 ka) but during contrasting temperature trends across each continent. Unfortunately, limited data sets in South America have so far precluded detailed comparison. We analyze genetic and radiocarbon data from 89 and 71 Patagonian megafaunal bones, respectively, more than doubling the high-quality Pleistocene megafaunal radiocarbon data sets from the region. We identify a narrow megafaunal extinction phase 12,280 ± 110 years ago, some 1 to 3 thousand years after initial human presence in the area. Although humans arrived immediately prior to a cold phase, the Antarctic Cold Reversal stadial, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until the stadial finished and the subsequent warming phase commenced some 1 to 3 thousand years later. The increased resolution provided by the Patagonian material reveals that the sequence of climate and extinction events in North and South America were temporally inverted, but in both cases, megafaunal extinctions did not occur until human presence and climate warming coincided. Overall, metapopulation processes involving subpopulation connectivity on a continental scale appear to have been critical for megafaunal species survival of both climate change and human impacts.Jessica L. Metcalf, Chris Turney, Ross Barnett, Fabiana Martin, Sarah C. Bray, Julia T. Vilstrup, Ludovic Orlando, Rodolfo Salas-Gismondi, Daniel Loponte, Matías Medina, Mariana De Nigris, Teresa Civalero, Pablo Marcelo Fernández, Alejandra Gasco, Victor Duran, Kevin L. Seymour, Clara Otaola, Adolfo Gil, Rafael Paunero, Francisco J. Prevosti, Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Jane C. Wheeler, Luis Borrero, Jeremy J. Austin, Alan Coope

High-resolution CT phenotypes in pulmonary sarcoidosis: a multinational Delphi consensus study

One view of sarcoidosis is that the term covers many different diseases. However, no classification framework exists for the future exploration of pathogenetic pathways, genetic or trigger predilections, patterns of lung function impairment, or treatment separations, or for the development of diagnostic algorithms or relevant outcome measures. We aimed to establish agreement on high-resolution CT (HRCT) phenotypic separations in sarcoidosis to anchor future CT research through a multinational two-round Delphi consensus process. Delphi participants included members of the Fleischner Society and the World Association of Sarcoidosis and other Granulomatous Disorders, as well as members' nominees. 146 individuals (98 chest physicians, 48 thoracic radiologists) from 28 countries took part, 144 of whom completed both Delphi rounds. After rating of 35 Delphi statements on a five-point Likert scale, consensus was achieved for 22 (63%) statements. There was 97% agreement on the existence of distinct HRCT phenotypes, with seven HRCT phenotypes that were categorised by participants as non-fibrotic or likely to be fibrotic. The international consensus reached in this Delphi exercise justifies the formulation of a CT classification as a basis for the possible definition of separate diseases. Further refinement of phenotypes with rapidly achievable CT studies is now needed to underpin the development of a formal classification of sarcoidosis

The IDENTIFY study: the investigation and detection of urological neoplasia in patients referred with suspected urinary tract cancer - a multicentre observational study

Objective To evaluate the contemporary prevalence of urinary tract cancer (bladder cancer, upper tract urothelial cancer [UTUC] and renal cancer) in patients referred to secondary care with haematuria, adjusted for established patient risk markers and geographical variation. Patients and Methods This was an international multicentre prospective observational study. We included patients aged ≥16 years, referred to secondary care with suspected urinary tract cancer. Patients with a known or previous urological malignancy were excluded. We estimated the prevalence of bladder cancer, UTUC, renal cancer and prostate cancer; stratified by age, type of haematuria, sex, and smoking. We used a multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to adjust cancer prevalence for age, type of haematuria, sex, smoking, hospitals, and countries. Results Of the 11 059 patients assessed for eligibility, 10 896 were included from 110 hospitals across 26 countries. The overall adjusted cancer prevalence (n = 2257) was 28.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 22.3–34.1), bladder cancer (n = 1951) 24.7% (95% CI 19.1–30.2), UTUC (n = 128) 1.14% (95% CI 0.77–1.52), renal cancer (n = 107) 1.05% (95% CI 0.80–1.29), and prostate cancer (n = 124) 1.75% (95% CI 1.32–2.18). The odds ratios for patient risk markers in the model for all cancers were: age 1.04 (95% CI 1.03–1.05; P < 0.001), visible haematuria 3.47 (95% CI 2.90–4.15; P < 0.001), male sex 1.30 (95% CI 1.14–1.50; P < 0.001), and smoking 2.70 (95% CI 2.30–3.18; P < 0.001). Conclusions A better understanding of cancer prevalence across an international population is required to inform clinical guidelines. We are the first to report urinary tract cancer prevalence across an international population in patients referred to secondary care, adjusted for patient risk markers and geographical variation. Bladder cancer was the most prevalent disease. Visible haematuria was the strongest predictor for urinary tract cancer

Musiques et danses dans l’Antiquité

La publication des actes du colloque qui s’est tenu à Brest en 2006 met en lumière les rapports complexes qui existent entre musiques, rythmes et danses : toute musique n’est pas forcément faite pour être dansée, mais lorsqu’une musique est composée pour l’orchestique elle est toujours vocale. La découverte de papyrus musicaux, les reconstitutions d’instruments antiques et leur pratique, la restitution de la métrique et des rythmes antiques, l’exécution de chorégraphies antiques sur des partitions musicales ont déjà renouvelé considérablement les connaissances sur le sujet. Il restait cependant à s’interroger sur des questions majeures telles que les mouvements des instrumentistes, l’utilisation de la métrique et du rythme pour danser sur un texte dont la musique n’est pas conservée (poésie ou théâtre), le rôle des accents grecs dans la mélodie et dans le rythme, l’utilisation de sources spécifiques telles que l’épigraphie. Les débats ont été orientés autour de quatre thèmes : musique et mouvement ; musique, rythme et métrique dans la danse ; des modèles dans la danse et la musique ; musique, rythme et danse face au christianisme. Le présent ouvrage a permis encore d’approfondir la réflexion. La première partie regroupe les rapports entre musique et mouvement dans les périodes pharaonique, grecque, ou chrétienne, ainsi que les définitions de l’ethos : il existe en effet un ethos des mélodies et des rythmes, destiné à donner sa couleur à chaque morceau musical, à exprimer ainsi une ou plusieurs émotions par le mouvement du corps ou bien par la danse. Le second axe de l’ouvrage se pose la question du texte grec, rythme ou musique, qu’il s’agisse de textes en vers ou en prose, dans la mesure où la langue grecque est musicale par nature, y compris ses accents qui ont une incidence sur la mélodie et sur le rythme. Le dernier volet du livre met en œuvre la diversité des méthodes d’étude, souvent liée à l’étude de sources spécifiques : sources littéraires y compris les chroniques de l’époque byzantine, épigraphie et archéologie