Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971-2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4-16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4-15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI

Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China

Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971–1990 and 1991–2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller (<4 %) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971–1990 to 1991–2010, total MAF changes range from −13 % to 10 % across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70 % of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88 % of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of −9 % to 18 % in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2 % to 8 % in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change

Multimodel assessments of human and climate impacts on mean annual streamflow in China

Human activities, as well as climate variability, have had increasing impacts on natural hydrological systems, particularly streamflow. However, quantitative assessments of these impacts are lacking on large scales. In this study, we use the simulations from six global hydrological models driven by three meteorological forcings to investigate direct human impact (DHI) and climate impact on streamflow in China. Results show that, in the sub-periods of 1971–1990 and 1991–2010, one-fifth to one-third of mean annual streamflow (MAF) was reduced due to DHI in northern basins, and much smaller (&lt;4&thinsp;%) MAF was reduced in southern basins. From 1971–1990 to 1991–2010, total MAF changes range from −13&thinsp;% to 10&thinsp;% across basins wherein the relative contributions of DHI change and climate variability show distinct spatial patterns. DHI change caused decreases in MAF in 70&thinsp;% of river segments, but climate variability dominated the total MAF changes in 88&thinsp;% of river segments of China. In most northern basins, climate variability results in changes of −9&thinsp;% to 18&thinsp;% in MAF, while DHI change results in decreases of 2&thinsp;% to 8&thinsp;% in MAF. In contrast with the climate variability that may increase or decrease streamflow, DHI change almost always contributes to decreases in MAF over time, with water withdrawals supposedly being the major impact on streamflow. This quantitative assessment can be a reference for attribution of streamflow changes at large scales, despite remaining uncertainty. We highlight the significant DHI in northern basins and the necessity to modulate DHI through improved water management towards a better adaptation to future climate change.</p

The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change

Droughts that exceed the magnitudes of historical variation ranges could occur increasingly frequently under future climate conditions. However, the time of the emergence of unprecedented drought conditions under climate change has rarely been examined. Here, using multimodel hydrological simulations, we investigate the changes in the frequency of hydrological drought (defined as abnormally low river discharge) under high and low greenhouse gas concentration scenarios and existing water resource management measures and estimate the time of the first emergence of unprecedented regional drought conditions centered on the low-flow season. The times are detected for several subcontinental-scale regions, and three regions, namely, Southwestern South America, Mediterranean Europe, and Northern Africa, exhibit particularly robust results under the high-emission scenario. These three regions are expected to confront unprecedented conditions within the next 30 years with a high likelihood regardless of the emission scenarios. In addition, the results obtained herein demonstrate the benefits of the lower-emission pathway in reducing the likelihood of emergence. The Paris Agreement goals are shown to be effective in reducing the likelihood to the unlikely level in most regions. However, appropriate and prior adaptation measures are considered indispensable when facing unprecedented drought conditions. The results of this study underscore the importance of improving drought preparedness within the considered time horizons

Parents' assessment of parent-child interaction interventions – a longitudinal study in 101 families

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of the study was to describe families with small children who participated in parent-child interaction interventions at four centres in Sweden, and to examine long term and short term changes regarding the parents' experience of parental stress, parental attachment patterns, the parents' mental health and life satisfaction, the parents' social support and the children's problems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this longitudinal study a consecutive sample of 101 families (94 mothers and 54 fathers) with 118 children (median age 3 years) was assessed, using self-reports, at the outset of the treatment (T1), six months later (T2) and 18 months after the beginning of treatment (T3). Analysis of the observed differences was carried out using Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test and Cohen's d.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results from commencement of treatment showed that the parents had considerable problems in all areas examined. At the outset of treatment (T1) the mothers showed a higher level of problem load than the fathers on almost all scales. In the families where the children's problems have also been measured (children from the age of four) it appeared that they had problems of a nature and degree otherwise found in psychiatric populations. We found a clear general trend towards a positive development from T1 to T2 and this development was also reinforced from T2 to T3. Aggression in the child was one of the most common causes for contact. There were few undesired or unplanned interruptions of the treatment, and the attrition from the study was low.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study has shown that it is possible to reach mothers as well as fathers with parenting problems and to create an intervention program with very low dropout levels – which is of special importance for families with small children displaying aggressive behaviour. The parents taking part in this study showed clear improvement trends after six months and this development was reinforced a year later. This study suggests the necessity of clinical development and future research concerning the role of fathers in parent-child interaction interventions.</p

Mental health training programmes for non-mental health trained professionals coming into contact with people with mental ill health: a systematic review of effectiveness

Background The police and others in occupations where they come into close contact with people experiencing/with mental ill health, often have to manage difficult and complex situations. Training is needed to equip them to recognise and assist when someone has a mental health issue or learning/intellectual disability. We undertook a systematic review of the effectiveness of training programmes aimed at increasing knowledge, changing behaviour and/or attitudes of the trainees with regard to mental ill health, mental vulnerability, and learning disabilities. Methods Databases searched from 1995 onwards included: ASSIA, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical Trials (CENTRAL), Criminal Justice Abstracts, Embase, ERIC, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Social Science Citation Index. Courses, training, or learning packages aimed at helping police officers and others who interact with the public in a similar way to deal with people with mental health problems were included. Primary outcomes were change in practice and change in outcomes for the groups of people the trainees come into contact with. Systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non- randomised controlled trials (non-RCTs) were included and quality assessed. In addition non-comparative evaluations of training for police in England were included. Results From 8578 search results, 19 studies met the inclusion criteria: one systematic review, 12 RCTs, three prospective non-RCTs, and three non-comparative studies. The training interventions identified included broad mental health awareness training and packages addressing a variety of specific mental health issues or conditions. Trainees included police officers, teachers and other public sector workers. Some short term positive changes in behaviour were identified for trainees, but for the people the trainees came into contact with there was little or no evidence of benefit. Conclusions A variety of training programmes exist for non-mental health professionals who come into contact with people who have mental health issues. There may be some short term change in behaviour for the trainees, but longer term follow up is needed. Research evaluating training for UK police officers is needed in which a number of methodological issues need to be addressed

Axial Concentration Profiles and NO Flue Gas in a Pilot-Scale Bubbling Fluidized Bed Coal Combustor

Atmospheric bubbling fluidized bed coal combustion of a bituminous coal and anthracite with particle diameters in the range 500-4000 ím was investigated in a pilot-plant facility. The experiments were conducted at steady-state conditions using three excess air levels (10, 25, and 50%) and bed temperatures in the 750-900 °C range. Combustion air was staged, with primary air accounting for 100, 80, and 60% of total combustion air. For both types of coal, high NO concentrations were found inside the bed. In general, the NO concentration decreased monotonically along the freeboard and toward the exit flue; however, during combustion with high air staging and low to moderate excess air, a significant additional NO formation occurred near the secondary air injection point. The results show that the bed temperature increase does not affect the NO flue gas concentration significantly. There is a positive correlation between excess air and the NO flue gas concentration. The air staging operation is very effective in lowering the NO flue gas, but there is a limit for the first stage stoichiometry below which the NO flue gas starts rising again. This effect could be related with the coal rank

Joint Effects of Febrile Acute Infection and an Interferon-γ Polymorphism on Breast Cancer Risk

BACKGROUND: There is an inverse relationship between febrile infection and the risk of malignancies. Interferon gamma (IFN-γ) plays an important role in fever induction and its expression increases with incubation at fever-range temperatures. Therefore, the genetic polymorphism of IFN-γ may modify the association of febrile infection with breast cancer risk. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Information on potential breast cancer risk factors, history of fever during the last 10 years, and blood specimens were collected from 839 incident breast cancer cases and 863 age-matched controls between October 2008 and June 2010 in Guangzhou, China. IFN-γ (rs2069705) was genotyped using a matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight mass spectrometry platform. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using multivariate logistic regression. We found that women who had experienced ≥1 fever per year had a decreased risk of breast cancer [ORs and 95% CI: 0.77 (0.61-0.99)] compared to those with less than one fever a year. This association only occurred in women with CT/TT genotypes [0.54 (0.37-0.77)] but not in those with the CC genotype [1.09 (0.77-1.55)]. The association of IFN-γ rs2069705 with the risk of breast cancer was not significant among all participants, while the CT/TT genotypes were significantly related to an elevated risk of breast cancer [1.32 (1.03-1.70)] among the women with <1 fever per year and to a reduced risk of breast cancer [0.63 (0.40-0.99)] among women with ≥1 fever per year compared to the CC genotype. A marked interaction between fever frequencies and the IFN-γ genotypes was observed (P for multiplicative and additive interactions were 0.005 and 0.058, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate a possible link between febrile acute infection and a decreased risk of breast cancer, and this association was modified by IFN-γ rs2069705

Evidence That Two ATP-Dependent (Lon) Proteases in Borrelia burgdorferi Serve Different Functions

The canonical ATP-dependent protease Lon participates in an assortment of biological processes in bacteria, including the catalysis of damaged or senescent proteins and short-lived regulatory proteins. Borrelia spirochetes are unusual in that they code for two putative ATP-dependent Lon homologs, Lon-1 and Lon-2. Borrelia burgdorferi, the etiologic agent of Lyme disease, is transmitted through the blood feeding of Ixodes ticks. Previous work in our laboratory reported that B. burgdorferi lon-1 is upregulated transcriptionally by exposure to blood in vitro, while lon-2 is not. Because blood induction of Lon-1 may be of importance in the regulation of virulence factors critical for spirochete transmission, the clarification of functional roles for these two proteases in B. burgdorferi was the object of this study. On the chromosome, lon-2 is immediately downstream of ATP-dependent proteases clpP and clpX, an arrangement identical to that of lon of Escherichia coli. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Lon-1 and Lon-2 cluster separately due to differences in the NH2-terminal substrate binding domains that may reflect differences in substrate specificity. Recombinant Lon-1 manifested properties of an ATP-dependent chaperone-protease in vitro but did not complement an E. coli Lon mutant, while Lon-2 corrected two characteristic Lon-mutant phenotypes. We conclude that B. burgdorferi Lons -1 and -2 have distinct functional roles. Lon-2 functions in a manner consistent with canonical Lon, engaged in cellular homeostasis. Lon-1, by virtue of its blood induction, and as a unique feature of the Borreliae, may be important in host adaptation from the arthropod to a warm-blooded host

Evolution of a New Function by Degenerative Mutation in Cephalochordate Steroid Receptors

Gene duplication is the predominant mechanism for the evolution of new genes. Major existing models of this process assume that duplicate genes are redundant; degenerative mutations in one copy can therefore accumulate close to neutrally, usually leading to loss from the genome. When gene products dimerize or interact with other molecules for their functions, however, degenerative mutations in one copy may produce repressor alleles that inhibit the function of the other and are therefore exposed to selection. Here, we describe the evolution of a duplicate repressor by simple degenerative mutations in the steroid hormone receptors (SRs), a biologically crucial vertebrate gene family. We isolated and characterized the SRs of the cephalochordate Branchiostoma floridae, which diverged from other chordates just after duplication of the ancestral SR. The B. floridae genome contains two SRs: BfER, an ortholog of the vertebrate estrogen receptors, and BfSR, an ortholog of the vertebrate receptors for androgens, progestins, and corticosteroids. BfSR is specifically activated by estrogens and recognizes estrogen response elements (EREs) in DNA; BfER does not activate transcription in response to steroid hormones but binds EREs, where it competitively represses BfSR. The two genes are partially coexpressed, particularly in ovary and testis, suggesting an ancient role in germ cell development. These results corroborate previous findings that the ancestral steroid receptor was estrogen-sensitive and indicate that, after duplication, BfSR retained the ancestral function, while BfER evolved the capacity to negatively regulate BfSR. Either of two historical mutations that occurred during BfER evolution is sufficient to generate a competitive repressor. Our findings suggest that after duplication of genes whose functions depend on specific molecular interactions, high-probability degenerative mutations can yield novel functions, which are then exposed to positive or negative selection; in either case, the probability of neofunctionalization relative to gene loss is increased compared to existing models