Bayesian interim analysis for prospective randomized studies:reanalysis of the acute myeloid leukemia HOVON 132 clinical trial

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard to establish the benefit-risk ratio of novel drugs. However, the evaluation of mature results often takes many years. We hypothesized that the addition of Bayesian inference methods at interim analysis time points might accelerate and enforce the knowledge that such trials may generate. In order to test that hypothesis, we retrospectively applied a Bayesian approach to the HOVON 132 trial, in which 800 newly diagnosed AML patients aged 18 to 65 years were randomly assigned to a “7 + 3” induction with or without lenalidomide. Five years after the first patient was recruited, the trial was negative for its primary endpoint with no difference in event-free survival (EFS) between experimental and control groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, p = 0.96) in the final conventional analysis. We retrospectively simulated interim analyses after the inclusion of 150, 300, 450, and 600 patients using a Bayesian methodology to detect early lack of efficacy signals. The HR for EFS comparing the lenalidomide arm with the control treatment arm was 1.21 (95% CI 0.81–1.69), 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.30), 1.00 (95% CI 0.84–1.19), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.87–1.19) at interim analysis 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Complete remission rates were lower in the lenalidomide arm, and early deaths more frequent. A Bayesian approach identified that the probability of a clinically relevant benefit for EFS (HR &lt; 0.76, as assumed in the statistical analysis plan) was very low at the first interim analysis (1.2%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively). Similar observations were made for low probabilities of any benefit regarding CR. Therefore, Bayesian analysis significantly adds to conventional methods applied for interim analysis and may thereby accelerate the performance and completion of phase III trials.</p

Core outcome set measurement for future clinical trials in acute myeloid leukemia: the HARMONY study protocol using a multi-stakeholder consensus-based Delphi process and a final consensus meeting

Abstract: Background: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is the most common acute leukemia in adults and has an unacceptably low cure rate. In recent years, a number of new treatment strategies and compounds were developed for the treatment of AML. There were several randomized controlled clinical trials with the objective to improve patients’ management and patients’ outcome in AML. Unfortunately, these trials are not always directly comparable since they do not measure the same outcomes, and currently there are no core outcome sets that can be used to guide outcome selection and harmonization in this disease area. The HARMONY (Healthcare Alliance for Resourceful Medicine Offensive against Neoplasms in Hematology) Alliance is a public-private European network established in 2017 and currently includes 53 partners and 32 associated members from 22 countries. Amongst many other goals of the HARMONY Alliance, Work Package 2 focuses on defining outcomes that are relevant to each hematological malignancy. Accordingly, this pilot study will be performed to define a core outcome set in AML. Methods: The pilot study will use a three-round Delphi survey and a final consensus meeting to define a core outcome set. Participants will be recruited from different stakeholder groups, including patients, clinicians, regulators and members of the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations. At the pre-Delphi stage, a literature research was conducted followed by several semi-structured interviews of clinical public and private key opinion leaders. Subsequently, the preliminary outcome list was discussed in several multi-stakeholder face-to-face meetings. The Delphi survey will reduce the preliminary outcome list to essential core outcomes. After completion of the last Delphi round, a final face-to-face meeting is planned to achieve consensus about the core outcome set in AML. Discussion: As part of the HARMONY Alliance, the pilot Delphi aims to define a core outcome set in AML on the basis of a multi-stakeholder consensus. Such a core outcome set will help to allow consistent comparison of future clinical trials and real-world evidence research and ensures that appropriate outcomes valued by a range of stakeholders are measured within future trials

Molecular characterization of mutant TP53 acute myeloid leukemia and high-risk myelodysplastic syndrome

Substantial heterogeneity within mutant TP53 acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome with excess of blast (MDS-EB) precludes the exact assessment of prognostic impact for individual patients. We performed in-depth clinical and molecular analysis of mutant TP53 AML and MDS-EB to dissect the molecular characteristics in detail and determine its impact on survival. We performed next-generation sequencing on 2200 AML/MDS-EB specimens and assessed the TP53 mutant allelic status (mono- or bi-allelic), the number of TP53 mutations, mutant TP53 clone size, concurrent mutations, cytogenetics, and mutant TP53 molecular minimal residual disease and studied the associations of these characteristics with overall survival. TP53 mutations were detected in 230 (10.5%) patients with AML/MDS-EB with a median variant allele frequency of 47%. Bi-allelic mutant TP53 status was observed in 174 (76%) patients. Multiple TP53 mutations were found in 49 (21%) patients. Concurrent mutations were detected in 113 (49%) patients. No significant difference in any of the aforementioned molecular characteristics of mutant TP53 was detected between AML and MDS-EB. Patients with mutant TP53 have a poor outcome (2-year overall survival, 12.8%); however, no survival difference between AML and MDS-EB was observed. Importantly, none of the molecular characteristics were significantly associated with survival in mutant TP53 AML/MDS-EB. In most patients, TP53 mutations remained detectable in complete remission by deep sequencing (73%). Detection of residual mutant TP53 was not associated with survival. Mutant TP53 AML and MDS-EB do not differ with respect to molecular characteristics and survival. Therefore, mutant TP53 AML/MDS-EB should be considered a distinct molecular disease entity

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors improve long-term outcome of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for adult patients with philadelphia chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia

This study aimed to determine the impact of tyrosine kinase inhibitors given pre- and post-allogeneic stem cell transplantation on long-term outcome of patients allografted for Philadelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This retrospective analysis from the EBMT Acute Leukemia Working Party included 473 de novoPhiladelphia chromosome-positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients in first complete remission who underwent an allogeneic stem cell transplantation using a human leukocyte antigen-identical sibling or human leukocyte antigen-matched unrelated donor between 2000 and 2010. Three hundred and ninety patients received tyrosine kinase inhibitors before transplant, 329 at induction and 274 at consolidation. Kaplan-Meier estimates of leukemia-free survival, overall survival, cumulative incidences of relapse incidence, and non-relapse mortality at five years were 38%, 46%, 36% and 26%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, tyrosine-kinase inhibitors given before allogeneic stem cell transplantation was associated with a better overall survival (HR=0.68; P=0.04) and was associated with lower relapse incidence (HR=0.5;P=0.01). In the post-transplant period, multivariate analysis identified prophylactic tyrosine-kinase inhibitor administration to be a significant factor for improved leukemia-free survival (HR=0.44; P=0.002) and overall survival (HR=0.42; P=0.004), and a lower relapse incidence (HR=0.40; P=0.01). Over the past decade, administration of tyrosine kinase inhibitors before allogeneic stem cell transplantation has significantly improved the long-term allogeneic stem cell trans

Distinct factors determine the kinetics of disease relapse in adults transplanted for acute myeloid leukaemia

Background: Disease recurrence remains the major cause of death in adults with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) treated using either intensive chemotherapy (IC) or allogenic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT). Aims: The timely delivery of maintenance drug or cellular therapies represent emerging strategies with the potential to reduce relapse after both treatment modalities, but whilst the determinants of overall relapse risk have been extensively characterized the factors determining the timing of disease recurrence have not been characterized. Materials and Methods: We have therefore examined, using a series of sequential landmark analyses, relapse kinetics in a cohort of 2028 patients who received an allo-SCT for AML in CR1 and separately 570 patients treated with IC alone. Results: In the first 3 months after allo-SCT, the factors associated with an increased risk of relapse included the presence of the FLT3-ITD (P < 0.001), patient age (P = 0.012), time interval from CR1 to transplant (P < 0.001) and donor type (P = 0.03). Relapse from 3 to 6 months was associated with a higher white cell count at diagnosis (P = 0.001), adverse-risk cytogenetics (P < 0.001), presence of FLT3-ITD mutation (P < 0.001) and time interval to achieve first complete remission (P = 0.013). Later relapse was associated with adverse cytogenetics, mutated NPM1, absence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) and the use of in vivo T-cell depletion. In patients treated with IC alone, the factors associated with relapse in the first 3 months were adverse-risk cytogenetics (P < 0.001) and FLT3-ITD status (P = 0.001). The factors predicting later relapse were the time interval from diagnosis to CR1 (P = 0.22) and time interval from CR1 to IC (P = 0.012). Discussion and Conclusion: Taken together, these data provide novel insights into the biology of disease recurrence after both allo-SCT and IC and have the potential to inform the design of novel maintenance strategies in both clinical settings

Applicability and reproducibility of acute myeloid leukaemia stem cell assessment in a multi-centre setting

Leukaemic stem cells (LSC) have been experimentally defined as the leukaemia-propagating population and are thought to be the cellular reservoir of relapse in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML). Therefore, LSC measurements are warranted to facilitate accurate risk stratification. Previously, we published the composition of a one-tube flow cytometric assay, characterised by the presence of 13 important membrane markers for LSC detection

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors improve long-term outcome of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation for adult patients with Philadelphia chromosome positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia

This study aimed to determine the impact of tyrosine kinase inhibitors given pre- and post- allogeneic stem cell transplantation on long- term outcome of patients allografted for Philadelphia chromosome- positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. This retrospective analysis from the EBMT Acute Leukemia Working Party included 473 de novo Philadelphia chromosome- positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia patients in first complete remission who underwent an allogeneic stem cell transplantation using a human leukocyte antigen- identical sibling or human leukocyte antigen- matched unrelated donor between 2000 and 2010. Three hundred and ninety patients received tyrosine kinase inhibitors before transplant, 329 at induction and 274 at consolidation. Kaplan- Meier estimates of leukemia- free survival, overall survival, cumulative incidences of relapse incidence, and non- relapse mortality at five years were 38%, 46%, 36% and 26%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, tyrosine- kinase inhibitors given before allogeneic stem cell transplantation was associated with a better overall survival ( HR= 0.68; P= 0.04) and was associated with lower relapse incidence ( HR= 0.5; P= 0.01). In the post- transplant period, multivariate analysis identified prophylactic tyrosine- kinase inhibitor administration to be a significant factor for improved leukemiafree survival ( HR= 0.44; P= 0.002) and overall survival ( HR= 0.42; P= 0.004), and a lower relapse incidence ( HR= 0.40; P= 0.01). Over the past decade, administration of tyrosine kinase inhibitors before allogeneic stem cell transplantation has significantly improved the long- term allogeneic stem cell transplantation outcome of adult Philadelphia chromosome- positive acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Prospective studies will be of great interest to further confirm the potential benefit of the prophylactic use of tyrosine kinase inhibitors in the post- transplant setting.Peer reviewe

Establishing human leukemia xenograft mouse models by implanting human bone marrow-like scaffold-based niches

To begin to understand the mechanisms that regulate self-renewal, differentiation, and transformation of human hematopoietic stem cells or to evaluate the efficacy of novel treatment modalities, stem cells need to be studied in their own species-specific microenvironment. By implanting ceramic scaffolds coated with human mesenchymal stromal cells into immune-deficient mice, we were able to mimic the human bone marrow niche. Thus, we have established a human leukemia xenograft mouse model in which a large cohort of patient samples successfully engrafted, which covered all of the important genetic and risk subgroups. We found that by providing a humanized environment, stem cell self-renewal properties were better maintained as determined by serial transplantation assays and genome-wide transcriptome studies, and less clonal drift was observed as determined by exome sequencing. The human leukemia xenograft mouse models that we have established here will serve as an excellent resource for future studies aimed at exploring novel therapeutic approaches

MRD in AML: does it already guide therapy decision-making?

Prognostic factors determined at diagnosis are predictive for outcome whereas achievement of morphological complete remission (CR) is still an important end point during treatment. Residual disease after therapy may reflect the sum of all diagnosis and postdiagnosis resistance mechanisms/factors; its measurement could hypothetically be very instrumental for guiding treatment. The possibility of defining residual disease (minimal residual disease [MRD]) far below the level of 5% blast cells is changing the landscape of risk classification. In this manuscript, the various methods, all different in sensitivity, specificity, and phase of development, to assess MRD are discussed. Currently, the 2 methods mostly used are flow cytometry-based immune MRD (multiparameter flow cytometry [MPFC]) and molecular MRD assessed by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Both have advantages and disadvantages that are summarized in detail. Many studies in children as well as adults already demonstrated that MRD detection by MPFC or molecular MRD provides strong prognostic information in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after both induction and consolidation. These studies are summarized in this review. The general conclusion of this review is that a better definition of disease burden than morphological CR is now emerging. MRD assessed by flow or molecular techniques should become standard in every clinical trial in AML. Harmonization of antibody panels, introduction of single-cell tube systems (for determination of residual leukemic stem cells), and standardized analytical programs will pave the way for individual risk assessment and become a surrogate end point for survival in studies investigating new drugs, hopefully resulting in faster drug approval in AML