Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: A chemistry-climate model study

The characteristics and driving mechanisms of Elevated Stratopause Events (ESEs) are examined in simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model under present and projected climate conditions. ESEs develop after sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in boreal winter. While the stratopause descends during SSWs, it is reformed at higher altitudes after the SSWs, leading to ESEs in years with a particularly high new stratopause. EMAC reproduces well the frequency and main characteristics of observed ESEs. ESEs occur in 24% of the winters, mostly after major SSWs. They develop in stable polar vortices due to a persistent tropospheric wave forcing leading to a prolonged zonal wind reversal in the lower stratosphere. By wave filtering, this enables a faster re-establishment of the mesospheric westerly jet, polar downwelling and a higher stratopause. We find the presence of a westward-propagating wavenumber-1 planetary wave in the mesosphere following the onset, consistent with in-situ generation by large-scale instability. By the end of the 21st century, the number of ESEs is projected to increase, mainly due to a sinking of the original stratopause after strong tropospheric wave forcing and planetary wave dissipation at lower levels. Future ESEs develop preferably in more intense and cold polar vortices, and tend to be shorter. While in the current climate, planetary wavenumber-2 contributes to the forcing of ESEs, future wave forcing is dominated by wavenumber-1 activity as a result of climate change. Hence, a persistent wave forcing seems to be more relevant for the development of an ESE than the wavenumber decomposition of the forcing

Arctic summer storm track in CMIP3/5 climate models

第4回極域科学シンポジウム横断セッション：[IA] 「急変する北極気候システム及びその全球的な影響の総合的解明」―GRENE北極気候変動研究事業研究成果報告2013―11月12日（火） 国立極地研究所 ２階大会議

Observed anomalous atmospheric patterns in summers of unusual Arctic sea ice melt

The Arctic sea ice retreat has accelerated over the last decade. The negative trend is largest in summer, but substantial interannual variability still remains. Here we explore observed atmospheric conditions and feedback mechanisms during summer months of anomalous sea ice melt in the Arctic. Compositing months of anomalous low and high sea ice melt over 1979–2013, we find distinct patterns in atmospheric circulation, precipitation, radiation, and temperature. Compared to summer months of anomalous low sea ice melt, high melt months are characterized by anomalous high sea level pressure in the Arctic (up to 7 hPa), with a corresponding tendency of storms to track on a more zonal path. As a result, the Arctic receives less precipitation overall and 39% less snowfall. This lowers the albedo of the region and reduces the negative feedback the snowfall provides for the sea ice. With an anticyclonic tendency, 12 W/m2 more incoming shortwave radiation reaches the surface in the start of the season. The melting sea ice in turn promotes cloud development in the marginal ice zones and enhances downwelling longwave radiation at the surface toward the end of the season. A positive cloud feedback emerges. In midlatitudes, the more zonally tracking cyclones give stormier, cloudier, wetter, and cooler summers in most of northern Europe and around the Sea of Okhotsk. Farther south, the region from the Mediterranean Sea to East Asia experiences significant surface warming (up to 2.4◦C), possibly linked to changes in the jet stream

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability phase-dependence of teleconnection between the North Atlantic Oscillation in February and the Tibetan Plateau in March

The Tibetan Plateau (TP), referred to as the “Asian water tower,” contains one of the largest land ice masses on Earth. The local glacier shrinkage and frozen-water storage are strongly affected by variations in surface air temperature over the TP (TPSAT), especially in springtime. This study reveals that the relationship between the February North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and March TPSAT is unstable with time and regulated by the phase of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). The significant out-of-phase connection occurs only during the warm phase of AMV (AMV+). The results show that during the AMV+, the negative phase of the NAO persists from February to March, and is accompanied by a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train trapped along a northward-shifted subtropical westerly jet stream across Eurasia, inducing an anomalous adiabatic descent that warms the TP. However, during the cold phase of the AMV, the negative NAO cannot persist into March. The Rossby wave train propagates along the well-separated polar and subtropical westerly jets, and the NAO–TPSAT connection is broken. Further investigation suggests that the enhanced synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) interaction over the North Atlantic in February and March during the AMV+, caused by the southward-shifted storm track, helps maintain the NAO pattern via positive eddy feedback. This study provides a new detailed perspective on the decadal variability of the North Atlantic–TP connection in late winter to early spring.publishedVersio

Modelling the descent of nitric oxide during the elevated stratopause event of January 2013

Using simulations with a whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate model nudged by meteorological analyses, global satellite observations of nitrogen oxide (NO) and water vapour by the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer instrument (SMR), of temperature by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), as well as local radar observations, this study examines the recent major stratospheric sudden warming accompanied by an elevated stratopause event (ESE) that occurred in January 2013. We examine dynamical processes during the ESE, including the role of planetary wave, gravity wave and tidal forcing on the initiation of the descent in the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) and its continuation throughout the mesosphere and stratosphere, as well as the impact of model eddy diffusion. We analyse the transport of NO and find the model underestimates the large descent of NO compared to SMR observations. We demonstrate that the discrepancy arises abruptly in the MLT region at a time when the resolved wave forcing and the planetary wave activity increase, just before the elevated stratopause reforms. The discrepancy persists despite doubling the model eddy diffusion. While the simulations reproduce an enhancement of the semi-diurnal tide following the onset of the 2013 SSW, corroborating new meteor radar observations at high northern latitudes over Trondheim (63.4$^{\circ}$N), the modelled tidal contribution to the forcing of the mean meridional circulation and to the descent is a small portion of the resolved wave forcing, and lags it by about ten days

Elevated stratopause events in the current and a future climate: a chemistry-climate model study

The characteristics and driving mechanisms of Elevated Stratopause Events (ESEs) are examined in simulations of the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model under present and projected climate conditions. ESEs develop after sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in boreal winter. While the stratopause descends during SSWs, it is reformed at higher altitudes after the SSWs, leading to ESEs in years with a particularly high new stratopause. EMAC reproduces well the frequency and main characteristics of observed ESEs. ESEs occur in 24% of the winters, mostly after major SSWs. They develop in stable polar vortices due to a persistent tropospheric wave forcing leading to a prolonged zonal wind reversal in the lower stratosphere. By wave filtering, this enables a faster re-establishment of the mesospheric westerly jet, polar downwelling and a higher stratopause. We find the presence of a westward-propagating wavenumber-1 planetary wave in the mesosphere following the onset, consistent with in-situ generation by large-scale instability. By the end of the 21st century, the number of ESEs is projected to increase, mainly due to a sinking of the original stratopause after strong tropospheric wave forcing and planetary wave dissipation at lower levels. Future ESEs develop preferably in more intense and cold polar vortices, and tend to be shorter. While in the current climate, planetary wavenumber-2 contributes to the forcing of ESEs, future wave forcing is dominated by wavenumber-1 activity as a result of climate change. Hence, a persistent wave forcing seems to be more relevant for the development of an ESE than the wavenumber decomposition of the forcing

Mesospheric nitric acid enhancements during energetic electron precipitation events simulated by WACCM‐D

While observed mesospheric polar nitric acid enhancements have been attributed to energetic particle precipitation through ion cluster chemistry in the past, this phenomenon is not reproduced in current whole-atmosphere chemistry-climate models. We investigate such nitric acid enhancements resulting from energetic electron precipitation events using a recently developed variant of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) that includes a sophisticated ion chemistry tailored for the D-layer of the ionosphere (50-90 km), namely WACCM-D. Using the specified-dynamics mode, i.e., nudging dynamics in the troposphere and stratosphere to meteorological re-analyses, we perform a one-year long simulation (July 2009-June 2010) and contrast WACCM-D with the standard WACCM. Both WACCM and WACCM-D simulations are performed with and without forcing from medium-to-high energy electron precipitation, allowing a better representation of the energetic electrons penetrating into the mesosphere. We demonstrate the effects of the strong particle precipitation events which occurred during April and May 2010 on nitric acid and on key ion cluster species, as well as other relevant species of the nitrogen family. The one-year-long simulation allows the event-related changes in neutral and ionic species to be placed in the context of their annual cycle. We especially highlight the role played by medium-to-high energy electrons in triggering ion cluster chemistry and ion-ion recombinations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the precipitation event, leading to enhanced production of nitric acid and raising its abundance by two orders of magnitude from 10-4 to a few 10-2 ppb

Impact of springtime Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts

The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. To assess the impact of realistic initialization of springtime snow over HTP on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon, we examine a suite of coupled ocean–atmosphere 4-month ensemble reforecasts made at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, using their Seasonal Forecasting System 4. The reforecasts were initialized on 1 April every year for the period 1981–2010. In these seasonal reforecasts, the snow is initialized “realistically” with ERA-Interim/Land Reanalysis. In addition, we carried out an additional set of forecasts, identical in all aspects except that initial conditions for snow-related land surface variables over the HTP region are randomized. We show that high snow depth over HTP influences the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient reversal that marks the monsoon onset. Composite difference based on a normalized HTP snow index reveal that, in high snow years, (1) the onset is delayed by about 8 days, and (2) negative precipitation anomalies and warm surface conditions prevail over India. We show that about half of this delay can be attributed to the realistic initialization of snow over the HTP region. We further demonstrate that high April snow depths over HTP are not uniquely influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole or the North Atlantic Oscillation.RS and YOR were supported by the Research Council of Norway through the NORINDIA Project (#216576). AW and YOR were also supported by the EU project SPECS funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 308378.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Validation of the vertical profiles of HCl over the wide range of the stratosphere to the lower thermosphere measured by SMILES

Hydrogen chloride (HCl) is the most abundant (more than 95 %) among inorganic chlorine compounds Cly in the stratosphere. The HCl molecule has been observed to obtain long-term quantitative estimations of total budget of the stratospheric anthropogenic chlorine compounds. In this study, we provided HCl vertical profiles at altitudes of 16–100 km using the superconducting submillimeter-wave limb-emission sounder (SMILES) from space. We used the SMILES Level-2 research product version 3.0.0. The period of the SMILES HCl observation was from October 12, 2009 to April 21, 2010, and the latitude coverage was 40S–65N. The average HCl vertical profile showed an increase with altitude up to the stratopause (~ 45 km), approximately constant values between the stratopause and the upper mesosphere (~ 80 km), and a decrease from the mesopause to the lower thermosphere (~ 100 km). This behavior was observed in the all latitude regions, and reproduced by the SD-WACCM model. We compared the SMILES HCl vertical profiles in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere with HCl profiles from MLS on the Aura satellite, as well as from ACE-FTS on SCISAT and from TELIS (balloon-borne). The TELIS observations were performed using the superconductive limb emission technique, as used by SMILES. The globally averaged vertical HCl profiles of SMILES well agreed with those of MLS and ACE-FTS within 0.25 and 0.2 ppbv between 20 and 40 km, respectively. The SMILES HCl concentration was smaller than those of MLS and ACE/FTS as the altitude increased from 40 km, and the difference was approximately 0.4–0.5 ppbv at 50–60 km. The difference between SMILES and TELIS HCl observations was about 0.3 ppbv in the polar winter region between 20 and 34 km, except near 26 km. SMILES HCl error sources that may cause discrepancies with the other observations are investigated by a theoretical error analysis. We calculated errors caused by the uncertainties of spectroscopic parameters, instrument functions, and atmospheric temperature profiles. The jacobian for the temperature explains the negative bias of the SMILES HCl concentration at 50–60 km. The HCl vertical profile from the middle troposphere to the lower thermosphere is reported for the first time from SMILES observations; the data quality is quantified by comparisons with other measurements and via theoretical error analysis

Impact of the major SSWs of February 2018 and January 2019 on the middle atmospheric nitric oxide abundance

The Arctic middle atmosphere was affected by major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) in February 2018 and January 2019, respectively. In this article, we report for the first time the impact of these two events on the middle atmospheric nitric oxide (NO) abundance. The study is based on measurements obtained during two dedicated observation campaigns, using the Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) aboard the Odin satellite, measuring NO globally since 2003. The SSW of February 2018 was similar to other, more dynamically quiet, Arctic winters in term of NO downward transport from the upper mesosphere–lower thermosphere to lower altitudes (referred to as energetic particle precipitation indirect effect EPP-IE). On the contrary, the event of January 2019 led to one of the strongest EPP-IE cases observed within the Odin operational period. Important positive NO anomalies were indeed observed in the lower mesosphere–upper stratosphere during the three months following the SSW onset, corresponding to NO volume mixing ratios more than 50 times higher than the climatological values. These different consequences on the middle atmospheric composition are explained by very different dynamical characteristics of these two SSW events