Systemic risk: A survey

This paper develops a broad concept of systemic risk, the basic economic concept for the understanding of financial crises. It is claimed that any such concept must integrate systemic events in banking and financial markets as well as in the related payment and settlement systems. At the heart of systemic risk are contagion effects, various forms of external effects. The concept also includes simultaneous financial instabilities following aggregate shocks. The quantitative literature on systemic risk, which was evolving swiftly in the last couple of years, is surveyed in the light of this concept. Various rigorous models of bank and payment system contagion have now been developed, although a general theoretical paradigm is still missing. Direct econometric tests of bank contagion effects seem to be mainly limited to the United States. Empirical studies of systemic risk in foreign exchange and security settlement systems appear to be non-existent. Moreover, the literature surveyed reflects the general difficulty to develop empirical tests that can make a clear distinction between contagion in the proper sense and joint crises caused by common shocks, rational revisions of depositor or investor expectations when information is asymmetric ('information-based' contagion) and 'pure' contagion as well as between 'efficient' and 'inefficient' systemic events. JEL Classification: G21, G29, G12, E49banking crises, Contagion, currency crises, financial markets, financial stability, payment and settlement systems, systemic risk

A cross-country comparison of market structures in European banking

In order to assess the effect of EMU on market conditions for banks based in countries which adopt the Single Currency, we use the H indicator suggested by Panzar and Rosse (1987). Our contribution is to assess results separately for large and small banks, and for interest income and total income as a dependent variable. From a panel of banks over the period 1992-1996, we provide evidence that European banking markets for large banks in the mid-1990s were still characterised by monopolistic competition, as compared to the United States. Regarding small banks, the level of competition appears to be even lower, especially in France and Germany. EMU would therefore imply a notable rise in competition for small banks in France and Germany, as well as an increase in competition for large banks, especially in Italy. JEL Classification: G21, L12banking, competition, contestability, EMU, panel data analysis

Confiance dans le système bancaire et croissance économique

Cet article propose un modèle de croissance endogène dans lequel on introduit des intermédiaires financiers en concurrence imparfaite et une rémunération du capital soumise à un choc macroéconomique. Les anticipations rationnelles des ménages sur le risque de faillites bancaires (dont ils supportent en partie les coûts influencent leur décisions de dépôts, contribuent à déterminer le taux de croissance, et peuvent être á l'origine d'un piége á pauvreté. La règlementation de l'entrée dans le secteur bancaire peut, dans certains cas, permettre un meilleur arbitrage entre l'efficacité et la stabilité du secteur bancaire, et, en conséquence, augmenter le nombre de dépôts, la croissance et le bien-être.Croissance, banques, depots, confiance, concurrence imparfaite

Determining a low disease activity threshold for decision to maintain disease-modifying antirheumatic drug treatment unchanged in rheumatoid arthritis patients

International audienceINTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to determine a low disease activity threshold--a 28-joint disease activity score (DAS28) value--for the decision to maintain unchanged disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) treatment in rheumatoid arthritis patients, based on expert opinion. METHODS: Nine hundred and sixty-seven case scenarios with various levels for each component of the DAS28 (resulting in a disease activity score between 2 and 3.2) were presented to 44 panelists. For each scenario, panelists had to decide whether or not DMARD treatment (excluding steroids) could be maintained unchanged. In each scenario, for decision, the participants were given the DAS28 parameters, without knowledge of the resultant DAS28. The relationship between panelists' decision, DAS28 value, and components of the score were analysed by multiple logistic regression analysis. Each panelist analysed 160 randomised scenarios. Intra-rater and inter-rater reproducibility were assessed. RESULTS: Forty-four panelists participated in the study. Inter-panelist agreement was good (kappa = 0.63; 95% confidence interval = 0.61 to 0.65). Intra-panelist agreement was excellent (kappa = 0.87; 95% confidence interval = 0.82 to 0.92). Quasi-perfect agreement was observed for DAS28 3.0. For values below 2.5, panelists agreed to maintain unchanged DMARDs; for values above 2.5, discrepancies occurred more frequently as the DAS28 value increased. Multivariate analysis confirmed the relationship between panelist's decision, DAS28 value and components of the DAS28. Between DAS28 of 2.4 and 3.2, a major determinant for panelists' decision was swollen joint count. Female and public practice physicians decided more often to maintain treatment unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: As a conclusion, panelists suggested that in clinical practice there is no need to change DMARD treatment in rheumatoid arthritis patients with DAS28 < or = 2.4

In Antisynthetase Syndrome, ACPA Are Associated With Severe and Erosive Arthritis: An Overlapping Rheumatoid Arthritis and Antisynthetase Syndrome

International audienceAbstract: Anticitrullinated peptide/protein antibodies (ACPA), which are highly specific for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), may be found in some patients with other systemic autoimmune diseases. The clinical significance of ACPA in patients with antisynthetase syndrome (ASS), a systemic disease characterized by the association of myositis, interstitial lung disease, polyarthralgia, and/or polyarthritis, has not yet been evaluated with regard to phenotype, prognosis, and response to treatment. ACPA-positive ASS patients were first identified among a French multicenter registry of patients with ASS. Additionally, all French rheumatology and internal medicine practitioners registered on the Club Rhumatismes et Inflammation web site were asked to report their observations of ASS patients with ACPA. The 17 collected patients were retrospectively studied using a standardized questionnaire and compared with 34 unselected ACPA-negative ASS patients in a case–control study. All ACPA-positive ASS patients suffered from arthritis versus 41% in the control group (P 7-year mean follow-up, extra-articular outcomes and survival were not different. ACPA-positive ASS patients showed an overlapping RA–ASS syndrome, were at high risk of refractory erosive arthritis, and might experience ASS flare when treated with antitumor necrosis factor drugs. In contrast, other biologics such as anti-CD20 mAb were effective in this context, without worsening systemic involvements

Le financement de l'industrie : différenciation ou homogénéisation ?

The financing of Industry : divergence or convergence ? A comparative analysis of the financial structures of the industrial firms in Japan, Germany, United States, United Kingdom and France, from 1971 to 1983, enables to verify the main conclusions of the theories that show great differences among countries in the relations between finance and industry (banking selection methods, provision of venture capital...). Nevertheless History shows the succession of periods of convergence and divergence between countries and a new phase of international convergence seems to have taken place since the first quarter of the 80's. On the one hand, this is a consequence of the transformation of the industrial sector, in relation with productive and financial investment. On the other hand, there is a greater similarity in the methods of public intervention of the financial system, in favor of industry, as a consequence of deregulation.L'analyse statistique comparée des structures de financement des entreprises industrielles aux Etats-Unis, au Royaume-Uni, au Japon, en R.F.A. et en France, sur la période 1971-1983, permet de vérifier, dans une certaine mesure, les conclusions des théories faisant état de différences importantes, entre les pays, dans les relations finance-industrie (en ce qui concerne les modalités de la sélection-bancaire, la fourniture de capital-risque,...). Cependant, l'Histoire enseigne la succession dans le temps de phase de rapprochement et de différenciation entre les pays et la période qui a débuté à partir du deuxième tiers des années 1980 est aujourd'hui marquée par un mouvement d'homogénéisation au niveau international. Celui-ci découle notamment de l'évolution des besoins du secteur productif en raison de la transformation du contenu de l'investissement aussi bien productif que financier, qui remet en cause l'originalité de certains « modèles » nationaux de relation finance-industrie. Parallèlement, on constate une plus grande convergence dans les modalités d'intervention des pouvoirs publics sur le système financier au profit du secteur productif, en particulier sous l'effet du mouvement de déréglementation et de la montée des marchés financiers.De Bandt Olivier. Le financement de l'industrie : différenciation ou homogénéisation ?. In: Revue d'économie financière, n°7, 1988. Articles divers. pp. 75-94