Augmented Winter's method for forecasting under asynchronous seasonalities

The method of Winters (1960) is one of the most well-known forecasting methodologies in practice. The main reason behind its popularity is that it is easy to implement and can give quite effective and efficient results for practice purposes. However, this method is not capable of capturing a pattern being emerged due to the simultaneous effects of two different asynchronous calendars, such as Gregorian and Hijri. We adapt this method in a way that it can deal with such patterns, and study its performance using a real dataset collected from a brewery factory in Turkey. With the same data set, we also provide a comparative performance analysis between our model and several forecasting models such as Winter’s (Winters 1960), TBAT (De Livera et al. 2011), ETS (Hyndman et al. 2002), and ARIMA (Hyndman and Khandakar 2008). The results we obtained reveal that better forecasts can be achieved using the new method when two asynchronous calendars exert their effects on the time-series

Evaluation of the diagnostic value of platelet indices in pediatric acute appendicitis

Objective: Abdominal examination findings in pediatric acute appendicitis (AA) significantly vary by age. Therefore, grading systems have been developed for diagnosing pediatric appendicitis, and laboratory and radiological findings have an important role in this diagnosis. However, there is a need to develop new parameters for diagnosing AA. This study aimed to investigate the diagnostic value of platelet indices in AA. Methods: This retrospective, observational study included 207 pediatric patients who were admitted to the Emergency Department and operated on for AA. The patients were divided into three groups on the basis of their surgical and histopathological findings (non-AA, uncomplicated AA, and complicated AA). Results: There was no significant difference in the mean platelet volume/platelet count (MPV/PC) ratio among the groups. The white blood cell (WBC) count and the MPV/PC ratio showed a significant negative relationship (r = −0.239). The specificity for MPV was 61.8% and the sensitivity was 68.8%. Receiver operating curve analysis of WBC and MPV showed significance for diagnosing AA. Conclusion: There is a negative, but weak, relationship between the WBC count and the MPV/PC ratio. However, the MPV/PC ratio could be a useful parameter for diagnosing pediatric AA according to receiver operating curve analysis. © The Author(s) 2020

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

Funder: European Society of Intensive Care Medicine; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013347Funder: Flemish Society for Critical Care NursesAbstract: Purpose: Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are particularly susceptible to developing pressure injuries. Epidemiologic data is however unavailable. We aimed to provide an international picture of the extent of pressure injuries and factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries in adult ICU patients. Methods: International 1-day point-prevalence study; follow-up for outcome assessment until hospital discharge (maximum 12 weeks). Factors associated with ICU-acquired pressure injury and hospital mortality were assessed by generalised linear mixed-effects regression analysis. Results: Data from 13,254 patients in 1117 ICUs (90 countries) revealed 6747 pressure injuries; 3997 (59.2%) were ICU-acquired. Overall prevalence was 26.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 25.9–27.3). ICU-acquired prevalence was 16.2% (95% CI 15.6–16.8). Sacrum (37%) and heels (19.5%) were most affected. Factors independently associated with ICU-acquired pressure injuries were older age, male sex, being underweight, emergency surgery, higher Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Braden score 3 days, comorbidities (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, immunodeficiency), organ support (renal replacement, mechanical ventilation on ICU admission), and being in a low or lower-middle income-economy. Gradually increasing associations with mortality were identified for increasing severity of pressure injury: stage I (odds ratio [OR] 1.5; 95% CI 1.2–1.8), stage II (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.4–1.9), and stage III or worse (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.3–3.3). Conclusion: Pressure injuries are common in adult ICU patients. ICU-acquired pressure injuries are associated with mainly intrinsic factors and mortality. Optimal care standards, increased awareness, appropriate resource allocation, and further research into optimal prevention are pivotal to tackle this important patient safety threat

Correction to: Prevalence, associated factors and outcomes of pressure injuries in adult intensive care unit patients: the DecubICUs study

The original version of this article unfortunately contained a mistake

Effect of parental pressure on emergency physicians for computerized tomography imaging request in children with head trauma

Background: Both minor and major head traumas constitute an important proportion of childhood emergency admissions. In this study, the findings of cranial computed tomography (CCT) scans performed as a result of the parental pressure were evaluated. Methods: The frequency and findings of CCT scans performed as a result of parental pressure were examined in a separate subgroup. Results: A total of 227 patients were included in the study; 158 (69.9%) patients had undergone CCT scans; a pathological finding was detected in 24 (10.6%) of these patients and undergone a consultation by the neurosurgeon (most common finding was isolated linear fracture; n = 12; 50%). The patients undergoing CCT scans were divided in two subgroups: the PECARN group [n = 123 (77.8%)] and the Parental pressure group [n = 33 (22.2%)]. Conclusion: One third of the parents of children who presented to the emergency department with head trauma and had no indication for CCT according to PECARN rules insisted on CCT imaging, and none of these cases showed ciTBI, surgical operation, or mortality. None of the patients in the parental pressure group had a history of surgical intervention or mortality within one month after discharge. © 2020 Elsevier Inc

Impact of desert dust storms, PM10 levels and daily temperature on mortality and emergency department visits due to stroke

ObjectiveIt is known that the inhalation of air pollutants adversely affects human health. These air pollutants originated from natural sources such as desert storms or human activities including traffic, power generating, domestic heating, etc. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of desert dust storms, particulate matter ≤10 μm (PM10) and daily maximum temperature (MT) on mortality and emergency department (ED) visits due to stroke in the city of Gaziantep, Southeast Turkey.MethodThe data on mortality and ED visits due to stroke were retrospectively recruited from January 1, 2009, to March 31, 2014, in Gaziantep City Centre.ResultsPM10 levels did not affect ED visits or mortality due to stroke; however, MT increased both ED visits [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.002, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.001–1.003] and mortality (OR = 1.006, 95% CI = 0.997–1.014) due to stroke in women. The presence of desert storms increased ED visits due to stroke in the total population (OR = 1.219, 95% CI = 1.199–1.240), and all subgroups. It was observed that desert dust storms did not have an increasing effect on mortality.ConclusionOur findings suggest that MT and desert dust storms can induce morbidity and mortality due to stroke

Comparison of fine needle aspiration biopsy and paraffin embedded tissue sections for measuring AgNOR proteins

WOS: 000361304600009PubMed: 25843622Paraffin embedded tissue sections and fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB) are important methods for diagnosis. We compared thyroid tissue obtained by FNAB to paraffin embedded sections to determine whether there were differences in detection of the amounts of argyrophilic nucleolar organizing region (AgNOR) proteins. Twenty-two patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma were included in the study. Slides were prepared with both FNAB tissue and 3 mu m sections of paraffin embedded tissue, and stained for AgNOR. One hundred nuclei per individual were evaluated; total AgNOR number/nucleus (TAn/TNn) and total AgNOR area/nuclear area (TAa/TNa) of individual cells were determined. Mean TAn/TNn and TAa/TNa values were 4.800 +/- 1.118 and 13.382 +/- 2.612, respectively, for FNAB samples; corresponding values were 2.406 +/- 0.649 and 8.49 +/- 0.893, respectively, for paraffin embedded sections. The differences between FNAB materials and paraffin embedded tissue sections were significant for the mean TAn/TNn and TAa/TNa values. Significant differences in the amounts of AgNOR protein detected were found between FNAB and paraffin embedded tissue sections

Arteriovenous malformation of auricula: Case report

Arteriovenous malformation is the existence of a directcommunication between an artery and vein without capillaryconnections. Although arteriovenous malformations(AVMs) are frequent in head and neck region, it is rare inear, especially in auricula. A thirty three year old femalepatient presented with hemorrhagic mass in her auricula.Radiological and histopatological examinations revealedan AVM that was limited to auricula. The mass is excisedand reconstructed with a local pediculated flap. This casewas presented together with a literature review