A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP

In this paper we introduce a Bayesian framework, which is explicit about prior assumptions, for using model ensembles and observations together to constrain future climate change. The emergent constraint approach has seen broad application in recent years, including studies constraining the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP). Most of these studies were based on ordinary least squares (OLS) fits between a variable of the climate state, such as tropical temperature, and climate sensitivity. Using our Bayesian method, and considering the LGM and mPWP separately, we obtain values of ECS of 2.7 K (0.6–5.2, 5th–95th percentiles) using the PMIP2, PMIP3, and PMIP4 datasets for the LGM and 2.3 K (0.5–4.4) with the PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 datasets for the mPWP. Restricting the ensembles to include only the most recent version of each model, we obtain 2.7 K (0.7–5.2) using the LGM and 2.3 K (0.4–4.5) using the mPWP. An advantage of the Bayesian framework is that it is possible to combine the two periods assuming they are independent, whereby we obtain a tighter constraint of 2.5 K (0.8–4.0) using the restricted ensemble. We have explored the sensitivity to our assumptions in the method, including considering structural uncertainty, and in the choice of models, and this leads to 95 % probability of climate sensitivity mostly below 5 K and only exceeding 6 K in a single and most uncertain case assuming a large structural uncertainty. The approach is compared with other approaches based on OLS, a Kalman filter method, and an alternative Bayesian method. An interesting implication of this work is that OLS-based emergent constraints on ECS generate tighter uncertainty estimates, in particular at the lower end, an artefact due to a flatter regression line in the case of lack of correlation. Although some fundamental challenges related to the use of emergent constraints remain, this paper provides a step towards a better foundation for their potential use in future probabilistic estimations of climate sensitivity

Hot spot of millennial scale climate oscillatory mode in glacial climate

The Tenth Symposium on Polar Science/Ordinary sessions: [OM] Polar Meteorology and Glaciology, Wed. 4 Dec. / 2F Auditorium, National Institute of Polar Researc

Large-scale features and evaluation of the PMIP4-CMIP6 midHolocene simulations

The mid-Holocene (6,000 years ago) is a standard experiment for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using paleoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a contribution by the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) to the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the northern hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of -0.3 K, which is -0.2 K cooler that the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Neither this difference nor the improvement in model complexity and resolution seems to improve the realism of the simulations. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on climate sensitivity and feedback strength

Global-scale energy and freshwater balance in glacial climate: A comparison of three PMIP2 LGM simulations

Three coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (I-GM: about 21000 yr before present), conducted under the protocol of the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2), have been analyzed from a viewpoint of large-scale energy and freshwater balance. Atmospheric latent heat (LH) transport decreases at most latitudes due to reduced water vapour content in the lower troposphere. and dry static energy (DSE) transport in northern midlatitudes increases and changes the intensity contrast between the Pacific and Atlantic regions due to enhanced stationary waves over the North American ice Sheets. In low latitudes. even with an intensified Hadley circulation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), reduced DSE transport by the mean zonal circulation as well as a reduced equatorward LH transport is observed. The oceanic heat transport at NH midlatitudes increases owing to intensified subpolar gyres, and the Atlantic heat transport at low latitudes increases in all models whether or not meridional overturning circulation (MOC) intensifies. As a result, total poleward energy transport at the LGM increases in NH mid- and low latitudes in all models. Oceanic freshwater transport decreases. compensating for the response of the atmospheric water vapor transport. These responses in the atmosphere and ocean make the northern North Atlantic Ocean cold and relatively fresh. and the Southern Ocean relatively warm and saline. This is a common and robust feature in all odels. The resultant ocean densities and ocean MOC response. however. show model dependency