Avulsions Drive Ecosystem Services and Economic Changes in the Brazilian Pantanal Wetlands

The Pantanal wetland is a mosaic of landscapes that brings together rich biodiversity with the valuable activities of fishing, tourism and ranching. Human occupation and land use in the headwaters have intensified the rate of channel avulsions in the lower reaches of the largest megafan on the Taquari River. This study evaluates the long-term changes of landscapes in the active depositional lobe of the Taquari megafan from the perspective of local communities of pantaneiros. Maps derived from multiple decades of multispectral Landsat data have proven useful for studying land cover changes through the relationship between dry (terrestrial vegetation and soil/dry pastures) and humid landscapes (open waters, aquatic macrophytes and wet soils), as well as through Sankey diagrams and spatiotemporal mapping with Boolean operations according to the rate of dryland recovery. We found that dryland recovery associated with an older and smaller avulsion (known as Zé da Costa) is analogous to that of a most recent and much larger avulsion (known as Caronal), which is still ongoing and has greater importance due to the scale of the impacts. Land value and fish capture depreciate as the partial Caronal avulsion still evolves, increasing the likelihood of environmental conflicts. While pantaneiros no longer profit from ecosystem services of provision (e.g., livestock or fishing), dryland recovery may deliver quantifiable ecosystem services of regulation. The strengthening of partnerships among stakeholders and the implementation of environmental compensation mechanisms are central for the best management of the Pantanal\u27s megafans that ensure quality of life for all pantaneiros

Simulated climate change, but not predation risk, accelerates Aedes aegypti emergence in a microcosm experiment in western Amazonia

Climate change affects individual life-history characteristics and species interactions, including predator-prey interactions. While effects of warming on Aedes aegypti adults are well known, clarity the interactive effects of climate change (temperature and CO2 concentration) and predation risk on the larval stage remains unexplored. In this study, we performed a microcosm experiment simulating temperature and CO2 changes in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil, for the year 2100. Simulated climate change scenarios (SCCS) were in accordance with the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Used SCCS were: Control (real-time current conditions in Manaus: average temperature is ~25.76°C ± 0.71°C and ~477.26 ± 9.38 parts per million by volume (ppmv) CO2); Light: increase of ~1, 7°C and ~218 ppmv CO2; Intermediate: increase of ~2.4°C and ~446 ppmv CO2; and Extreme: increase of ~4.5°C and ~861 ppmv CO2, all increases were relative to a Control SCCS. Light, Intermediate and Extreme SCCS reproduced, respectively, the B1, A1B, and A2 climatic scenarios predicted by IPCC (2007). We analyzed Aedes aegypti larval survivorship and adult emergence pattern with a factorial design combining predation risk (control and predator presence-Toxorhynchites haemorrhoidalis larvae) and SCCS. Neither SCCS nor predation risk affected Aedes aegypti larval survivorship, but adult emergence pattern was affected by SCCS. Accordingly, our results did not indicate interactive effects of SCCS and predation risk on larval survivorship and emergence pattern of Aedes aegypti reared in SCCS in western Amazonia. Aedes aegypti is resistant to SCCS conditions tested, mainly due to high larval survivorship, even under Extreme SCCS, and warmer scenarios increase adult Aedes aegypti emergence. Considering that Aedes aegypti is a health problem in western Amazonia, an implication of our findings is that the use of predation cues as biocontrol strategies will not provide a viable means of controlling the accelerated adult emergence expected under the IPCC climatic scenarios

Structuring functional groups of aquatic insects along the resistance/resilience axis when facing water flow changes

Understanding how differences in intensity and frequency of hydrological disturbances affect the resistance and resilience of aquatic organisms is key to manage aquatic systems in a fast-changing world. Some aquatic insects have strategies that improve the permanence (resistance), while others use strategies that favor recolonization (resilience). Therefore, we carried out a manipulative experiment to understand the influence of functional characteristics of aquatic insects in their permanence and recolonization against hydrological disturbances in streams in the biodiversity hotspot of the Cerrado of Brazil. We placed 200 artificial substrates in five streams and submitted them to changing water flow regimes that differed both in frequency and intensity, and we observed the response of the aquatic community for 39 days. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate the probabilities of permanence and recolonization of each life strategy group (nine groups). We observed that the most intense changes in the water flow tended to affect the permanence of almost all groups, but the intensity of this effect reduced over time. On the other hand, less frequent disturbances, regardless of intensity, tended to reduce the permanence of most groups of aquatic insects over time. The different effects of disturbance intensity may have been related to a greater recolonization capacity of some groups. The results we present are worrisome in a scenario of reduced riparian vegetation around streams and with the expectation of precipitation becoming more concentrated in shorter periods of time due to climate change in the Cerrado hotspot, reducing the occurrence of many groups of aquatic insects in their habitat, particularly those with traits associated with resistance against hydrological disturbance

Assessing the role of compound drought and heatwave events on unprecedented 2020 wildfires in the Pantanal

The year 2020 had the most catastrophic fire season over the last two decades in the Pantanal, which led to outstanding environmental impacts. Indeed, much of the Pantanal has been affected by severe dry conditions since 2019, with evidence of the 2020's drought being the most extreme and widespread ever recorded in the last 70 years. Although it is unquestionable that this mega-drought contributed significantly to the increase of fire risk, so far, the 2020's fire season has been analyzed at the univariate level of a single climate event, not considering the co-occurrence of extreme and persistent temperatures with soil dryness conditions. Here, we show that similarly to other areas of the globe, the influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks contributed decisively to the simultaneous occurrence of dry and hot spells (HPs), exacerbating fire risk. The ideal synoptic conditions for strong atmospheric heating and large evaporation rates were present, in particular during the HPs, when the maximum temperature was, on average, 6 °C above the normal. The short span of the period during those compound drought-heatwave (CDHW) events accounted for 55% of the burned area of 2020. The vulnerability in the northern forested areas was higher than in the other areas, revealing a synergistic effect between fuel availability and weather-hydrological conditions. Accordingly, where fuel is not a limiting factor, fire activity tends to be more modelled by CDHW events. Our work advances beyond an isolated event-level basis towards a compound and cascading natural hazards approach, simultaneously estimating the contribution of drought and heatwaves to fuelling extreme fire outbreaks in the Pantanal such as those in 2020. Thus, these findings are relevant within a broader context, as the driving mechanisms apply across other ecosystems, implying higher flammability conditions and further efforts for monitoring and predicting such extreme events

Landscape drivers of mammal habitat use and richness in a protected area and its surrounding agricultural lands

Protected areas (PAs) are key to conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services globally, but their effectiveness increasingly depends on the ability of the surrounding agricultural areas to support biodiversity and secure connectivity at the landscape level. This requires monitoring the broader multi-use landscapes in which PAs exist and identifying the landscape characteristics that support rich, functional wildlife communities. Here, we investigated the species richness and habitat use patterns of a mammal community in relation to different landscape variables and land use and land cover (LULC) types in a PA and its surrounding agricultural lands in the Cerrado. We first used a hierarchical multi-species occupancy model with input camera trap data and eight landscape variables (vegetation productivity, phenology, and heterogeneity, distance to water, roads and settlements, and the PA, slope, and elevation) to estimate the species richness and habitat use of 29 mammal species across the landscape. We then analyzed the relationships between the species richness and habitat use and the landscape variables at the site level, as well as the distribution of species at the landscape level in relation to the different natural and agricultural LULC types

Small forest losses degrade stream macroinvertebrate assemblages in the eastern Brazilian Amazon

Generally, habitat loss and fragmentation negatively affect biota, often in nonlinear ways. Such nonlinear responses suggest the existence of critical limits for habitat loss beyond which taxa experience substantial changes. Therefore, we identified change points for aquatic macroinvertebrate assemblages at both local-riparian and catchment extents in response to a forest-loss gradient in agriculture-altered landscapes of 51 small (1st to 3rd Strahler order) eastern Amazon streams. We used Threshold Indicator Taxa Analysis (TITAN) to identify change points for individual taxa and segmented regression analysis for assemblage richness. Considering the patterns of the cumulative frequency distributions of sum(Z−) maxima across bootstrap replications, peak changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages were at ∼9% (5–95 percentiles = 1–15%) of forest-loss at the catchment extent, and at ∼1.4% (5–95 percentiles = 0–35%) of forest-loss at the local-riparian extent. Although the assemblage change point at the site extent was less than that detected at the catchment extent, the markedly lower percentile range indicates that biotic assemblages are more clearly responsive to forest-loss at the catchment/network-riparian extents than the site extent. For catchment and site extents, segmented regression analysis determined a change point for assemblage richness at 57% and 79% of forest-loss, respectively. This indicates the low capacity of total richness to separate early and synchronous decreases of sensitive taxa from gradual increases of tolerant taxa. Our results also show that it is not enough to focus management and conservation actions on riparian zones, but that conservation strategies should be expanded to entire catchments as well. The sharp decline of sensitive taxa in response to removal of a small portion of forest cover, even at catchment extents, indicates that the Brazilian Forest Code is insufficient for protecting stream macroinvertebrates. Consequently, we recommend strategies to reverse the potential collapse of aquatic biodiversity, particularly through avoiding deforestation and forest degradation, encouraging socio-economic incentives for restoring degraded areas, creating protected areas, and maintaining the current protected areas. We argue that reducing habitat loss should be a top priority for conservation planners in tropical forests because the sensitivity of aquatic biodiversity to removal of riparian forest-cover in Amazon rainforests is higher than previously thought. Therefore, the Forest Code regulatory framework needs complementary regulation that may be achived by more restrictive State and biome policies. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

Scientists' warning to humanity on insect extinctions

Here we build on the manifesto ‘World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity, issued by the Alliance of World Scientists. As a group of conservation biologists deeply concerned about the decline of insect populations, we here review what we know about the drivers of insect extinctions, their consequences, and how extinctions can negatively impact humanity. We are causing insect extinctions by driving habitat loss, degradation, and fragmentation, use of polluting and harmful substances, the spread of invasive species, global climate change, direct overexploitation, and co-extinction of species dependent on other species. With insect extinctions, we lose much more than species. We lose abundance and biomass of insects, diversity across space and time with consequent homogenization, large parts of the tree of life, unique ecological functions and traits, and fundamental parts of extensive networks of biotic interactions. Such losses lead to the decline of key ecosystem services on which humanity depends. From pollination and decomposition, to being resources for new medicines, habitat quality indication and many others, insects provide essential and irreplaceable services. We appeal for urgent action to close key knowledge gaps and curb insect extinctions. An investment in research programs that generate local, regional and global strategies that counter this trend is essential. Solutions are available and implementable, but urgent action is needed now to match our intentions.Peer reviewe

Solutions for humanity on how to conserve insects

The fate of humans and insects intertwine, especially through the medium of plants. Global environmental change, including land transformation and contamination, is causing concerning insect diversity loss, articulated in the companion review Scientists' warning to humanity on insect extinctions. Yet, despite a sound philosophical foundation, recognized ethical values, and scientific evidence, globally we are performing poorly at instigating effective insect conservation. As insects are a major component of the tapestry of life, insect conservation would do well to integrate better with overall biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation. This also involves popularizing insects, especially through use of iconic species, through more media coverage, and more inclusive education. Insect conservationists need to liaise better with decision makers, stakeholders, and land managers, especially at the conceptually familiar scale of the landscape. Enough evidence is now available, and synthesized here, which illustrates that multiple strategies work at local levels towards saving insects. We now need to expand these locally-crafted strategies globally. Tangible actions include ensuring maintenance of biotic complexity, especially through improving temporal and spatial heterogeneity, functional connectivity, and metapopulation dynamics, while maintaining unique habitats, across landscape mosaics, as well as instigating better communication. Key is to have more expansive sustainable agriculture and forestry, improved regulation and prevention of environmental risks, and greater recognition of protected areas alongside agro-ecology in novel landscapes. Future-proofing insect diversity is now critical, with the benefits far reaching, including continued provision of valuable ecosystem services and the conservation of a rich and impressive component of Earth's biodiversity.Peer reviewe

Rising water temperature in rivers: Ecological impacts and future resilience

Rising water temperatures in rivers due to climate change are already having observable impacts on river ecosystems. Warming water has both direct and indirect impacts on aquatic life, and further aggravates pervasive issues such as eutrophication, pollution, and the spread of disease. Animals can survive higher temperatures through physiological and/or genetic acclimation, behavioral and phenological change, and range shifts to more suitable locations. As such, those animals that are adapted to cool-water regions typically found in high altitudes and latitudes where there are fewer dispersal opportunities are most at risk of future extinction. However, sub-lethal impacts on animal physiology and phenology, body-size, and trophic interactions could have significant population-level effects elsewhere. Rivers are vulnerable to warming because historic management has typically left them exposed to solar radiation through the removal of riparian shade, and hydrologically disconnected longitudinally, laterally, and vertically. The resilience of riverine ecosystems is also limited by anthropogenic simplification of habitats, with implications for the dispersal and resource use of resident organisms. Due to the complex indirect impacts of warming on ecosystems, and the species-specific physiological and behavioral response of organisms to warming, predicting how river ecosystems will change in the future is challenging. Restoring rivers to provide connectivity and heterogeneity of conditions would provide resilience to a range of expected co-occurring pressures, including warming, and should be considered a priority as part of global strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water and Environmental Change Water and Life > Nature of Freshwater Ecosystems Water and Life > Stresses and Pressures on Ecosystems

Economic Losses and Cross Border Effects Caused by Pantanal Catastrophic Wildfires

The Pantanal, the Earth's largest continuous wetland, experienced severe impacts from wildfires in 2019 and, particularly, in 2020. The surge in wildfires can be attributed to several factors, including climate extremes, inadequate fire management, ineffective policymaking, as well as commercial and demographic dynamics. Understanding the economic effects of wildfires is crucial for guiding resource allocation toward prevention and firefighting efforts. This study aims to examine the economic losses resulting from the catastrophic wildfires in the Brazilian Pantanal region during 2019 and 2020. By utilizing publicly available datasets and data obtained from representatives of public and private institutions, we constructed scenarios to simulate the fire's impacts on economic input-output matrices. Through the application of structural impact analysis, we can simulate variations in output, value-added, and income by considering demand variation scenarios resulting from external shocks. Our findings reveal that the economic impact of the wildfires extends beyond the burned areas, affecting other regions of Brazil, such as São Paulo and Paraná. The lack of a comprehensive public database encompassing different scales (municipal, state, and national), along with a clear methodology for calculating and reporting firefighting expenses, hinders accurate prediction of economic losses and impedes proactive investments in wildfire prevention