Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities

International audiencePhytoplankton community composition profoundly affects patterns of nutrient cycling and the dynamics of marine food webs; therefore predicting present and future phytoplankton community structure is crucial to understand how ocean ecosystems respond to physical forcing and nutrient limitations. We develop a mechanistic model of phytoplankton communities that includes multiple taxonomic groups (diatoms, coccolithophores and prasinophytes), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron), light, and a generalist zooplankton grazer. Each taxonomic group was parameterized based on an extensive literature survey. We test the model at two contrasting sites in the modern ocean, the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and subarctic North Pacific (ocean station Papa, OSP). The model successfully predicts general patterns of community composition and succession at both sites: In the North Atlantic, the model predicts a spring diatom bloom, followed by coccolithophore and prasinophyte blooms later in the season. In the North Pacific, the model reproduces the low chlorophyll community dominated by prasinophytes and coccolithophores, with low total biomass variability and high nutrient concentrations throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the identity of the most sensitive parameters and the range of acceptable parameters differed between the two sites. We then use the model to predict community reorganization under different global change scenarios: a later onset and extended duration of stratification, with shallower mixed layer depths due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations; increase in deep water nitrogen; decrease in deep water phosphorus and increase or decrease in iron concentration. To estimate uncertainty in our predictions, we used a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space where future scenarios were run using parameter combinations that produced acceptable modern day outcomes and the robustness of the predictions was determined. Change in the onset and duration of stratification altered the timing and the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom in the North Atlantic and increased total phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass in the North Pacific. Changes in nutrient concentrations in some cases changed dominance patterns of major groups, as well as total chlorophyll and zooplankton biomass. Based on these scenarios, our model suggests that global environmental change will inevitably alter phytoplankton community structure and potentially impact global biogeochemical cycles

The Exomars Climate Sounder (EMCS) Investigation

The ExoMars Climate Sounder (EMCS) investigation is developed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Principal Investigator J. T. Schofield) in collaboration with an international scientific team from France, the United Kingdom and the USA. EMCS plans to map daily, global, pole-to-pole profiles of temperature, dust, water and CO2 ices, and water vapor from the proposed 2016 ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter (EMTGO). These profiles are to be assimilated into Mars General Circulation Models (MGCMs) to generate global, interpolated fields of measured and derived parameters such as wind

4 Gy versus 24 Gy radiotherapy for follicular and marginal zone lymphoma (FoRT): long-term follow-up of a multicentre, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial

BACKGROUND: The optimal radiotherapy dose for indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma is uncertain. We aimed to compare 24 Gy in 12 fractions (representing the standard of care) with 4 Gy in two fractions (low-dose radiation). METHODS: FoRT (Follicular Radiotherapy Trial) is a randomised, multicentre, phase 3, non-inferiority trial at 43 study centres in the UK. We enrolled patients (aged >18 years) with indolent non-Hodgkin lymphoma who had histological confirmation of follicular lymphoma or marginal zone lymphoma requiring radical or palliative radiotherapy. No limit on performance status was stipulated, and previous chemotherapy or radiotherapy to another site was permitted. Radiotherapy target sites were randomly allocated (1:1) either 24 Gy in 12 fractions or 4 Gy in two fractions using minimisation and stratified by histology, treatment intent, and study centre. Randomisation was centralised through the Cancer Research UK and University College London Cancer Trials Centre. Patients, treating clinicians, and investigators were not masked to random assignments. The primary endpoint was time to local progression in the irradiated volume based on clinical and radiological evaluation and analysed on an intention-to-treat basis. The non-inferiority threshold aimed to exclude the chance that 4 Gy was more than 10% inferior to 24 Gy in terms of local control at 2 years (HR 1·37). Safety (in terms of adverse events) was analysed in patients who received any radiotherapy and who returned an adverse event form. FoRT is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00310167, and the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN65687530, and this report represents the long-term follow-up. FINDINGS: Between April 7, 2006, and June 8, 2011, 614 target sites in 548 patients were randomly assigned either 24 Gy in 12 fractions (n=299) or 4 Gy in two fractions (n=315). At a median follow-up of 73·8 months (IQR 61·9-88·0), 117 local progression events were recorded, 27 in the 24 Gy group and 90 in the 4 Gy group. The 2-year local progression-free rate was 94·1% (95% CI 90·6-96·4) after 24 Gy and 79·8% (74·8-83·9) after 4 Gy; corresponding rates at 5 years were 89·9% (85·5-93·1) after 24 Gy and 70·4% (64·7-75·4) after 4 Gy (hazard ratio 3·46, 95% CI 2·25-5·33; p<0·0001). The difference at 2 years remains outside the non-inferiority margin of 10% at -13·0% (95% CI -21·7 to -6·9). The most common events at week 12 were alopecia (19 [7%] of 287 sites with 24 Gy vs six [2%] of 301 sites with 4 Gy), dry mouth (11 [4%] vs five [2%]), fatigue (seven [2%] vs five [2%]), mucositis (seven [2%] vs three [1%]), and pain (seven [2%] vs two [1%]). No treatment-related deaths were reported. INTERPRETATION: Our findings at 5 years show that the optimal radiotherapy dose for indolent lymphoma is 24 Gy in 12 fractions when durable local control is the aim of treatment. FUNDING: Cancer Research UK

Critical equation of state of randomly dilute Ising systems

We determine the critical equation of state of three-dimensional randomly dilute Ising systems, i.e. of the random-exchange Ising universality class. We first consider the small-magnetization expansion of the Helmholtz free energy in the high-temperature phase. Then, we apply a systematic approximation scheme of the equation of state in the whole critical regime, that is based on polynomial parametric representations matching the small-magnetization of the Helmholtz free energy and satisfying a global stationarity condition. These results allow us to estimate several universal amplitude ratios, such as the ratio A^+/A^- of the specific-heat amplitudes. Our best estimate A^+/A^-=1.6(3) is in good agreement with experimental results on dilute uniaxial antiferromagnets.Comment: 21 pages, 1 figure, refs adde

Ozone sensitivity to varying greenhouse gases and ozone-depleting substances in CCMI-1 simulations

Ozone fields simulated for the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) will be used as forcing data in the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we assess, using reference and sensitivity simulations produced for CCMI-1, the suitability of CCMI-1 model results for this process, investigating the degree of consistency amongst models regarding their responses to variations in individual forcings. We consider the influences of methane, nitrous oxide, a combination of chlorinated or brominated ozone-depleting substances, and a combination of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. We find varying degrees of consistency in the models' responses in ozone to these individual forcings, including some considerable disagreement. In particular, the response of total-column ozone to these forcings is less consistent across the multi-model ensemble than profile comparisons. We analyse how stratospheric age of air, a commonly used diagnostic of stratospheric transport, responds to the forcings. For this diagnostic we find some salient differences in model behaviour, which may explain some of the findings for ozone. The findings imply that the ozone fields derived from CCMI-1 are subject to considerable uncertainties regarding the impacts of these anthropogenic forcings. We offer some thoughts on how to best approach the problem of generating a consensus ozone database from a multi-model ensemble such as CCMI-1

Further functional determinants

Functional determinants for the scalar Laplacian on spherical caps and slices, flat balls, shells and generalised cylinders are evaluated in two, three and four dimensions using conformal techniques. Both Dirichlet and Robin boundary conditions are allowed for. Some effects of non-smooth boundaries are discussed; in particular the 3-hemiball and the 3-hemishell are considered. The edge and vertex contributions to the $C_{3/2}$ coefficient are examined.Comment: 25 p,JyTex,5 figs. on request

Measuring anisotropic scattering in the cuprates

A simple model of anisotropic scattering in a quasi two-dimensional metal is studied. Its simplicity allows an analytic calculation of transport properties using the Boltzmann equation and relaxation time approximation. We argue that the c-axis magnetoresistance provides the key test of this model of transport. We compare this model with experiments on overdoped Tl-2201 and find reasonable agreement using only weak scattering anisotropy. We argue that optimally doped Tl-2201 should show strong angular-dependent magnetoresistance within this model and would provide a robust way of determining the in-plane scattering anisotropy in the cuprates.Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, typset in REVTeX 4. Version 2; added references and corrected typo

Multi-nutrient, multi-group model of present and future oceanic phytoplankton communities

Phytoplankton community composition profoundly affects patterns of nutrient cycling and the dynamics of marine food webs; therefore predicting present and future phytoplankton community structure is crucial to understand how ocean ecosystems respond to physical forcing and nutrient limitations. We develop a mechanistic model of phytoplankton communities that includes multiple taxonomic groups (diatoms, coccolithophores and prasinophytes), nutrients (nitrate, ammonium, phosphate, silicate and iron), light, and a generalist zooplankton grazer. Each taxonomic group was parameterized based on an extensive literature survey. We test the model at two contrasting sites in the modern ocean, the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Bloom Experiment, NABE) and subarctic North Pacific (ocean station Papa, OSP). The model successfully predicts general patterns of community composition and succession at both sites: In the North Atlantic, the model predicts a spring diatom bloom, followed by coccolithophore and prasinophyte blooms later in the season. In the North Pacific, the model reproduces the low chlorophyll community dominated by prasinophytes and coccolithophores, with low total biomass variability and high nutrient concentrations throughout the year. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the identity of the most sensitive parameters and the range of acceptable parameters differed between the two sites. We then use the model to predict community reorganization under different global change scenarios: a later onset and extended duration of stratification, with shallower mixed layer depths due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations; increase in deep water nitrogen; decrease in deep water phosphorus and increase or decrease in iron concentration. To estimate uncertainty in our predictions, we used a Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter space where future scenarios were run using parameter combinations that produced acceptable modern day outcomes and the robustness of the predictions was determined. Change in the onset and duration of stratification altered the timing and the magnitude of the spring diatom bloom in the North Atlantic and increased total phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass in the North Pacific. Changes in nutrient concentrations in some cases changed dominance patterns of major groups, as well as total chlorophyll and zooplankton biomass. Based on these scenarios, our model suggests that global environmental change will inevitably alter phytoplankton community structure and potentially impact global biogeochemical cycles

Interplay between pleiotropy and secondary selection determines rise and fall of mutators in stress response

Dramatic rise of mutators has been found to accompany adaptation of bacteria in response to many kinds of stress. Two views on the evolutionary origin of this phenomenon emerged: the pleiotropic hypothesis positing that it is a byproduct of environmental stress or other specific stress response mechanisms and the second order selection which states that mutators hitchhike to fixation with unrelated beneficial alleles. Conventional population genetics models could not fully resolve this controversy because they are based on certain assumptions about fitness landscape. Here we address this problem using a microscopic multiscale model, which couples physically realistic molecular descriptions of proteins and their interactions with population genetics of carrier organisms without assuming any a priori fitness landscape. We found that both pleiotropy and second order selection play a crucial role at different stages of adaptation: the supply of mutators is provided through destabilization of error correction complexes or fluctuations of production levels of prototypic mismatch repair proteins (pleiotropic effects), while rise and fixation of mutators occur when there is a sufficient supply of beneficial mutations in replication-controlling genes. This general mechanism assures a robust and reliable adaptation of organisms to unforeseen challenges. This study highlights physical principles underlying physical biological mechanisms of stress response and adaptation

Fine Structure and Fractional Aharonov-Bohm Effect

We find a fine structure in the Aharonov-Bohm effect, characterized by the appearence of a new type of periodic oscillations having smaller fractional period and an amplitude, which may compare with the amplitude of the conventional Aharonov-Bohm effect. Specifically, at low density or strong coupling on a Hubbard ring can coexist along with the conventional Aaronov-Bohm oscillations with the period equal to an integer, measured in units of the elementary flux quantum, two additional oscillations with periods $1/N$ and $M/N$. The integers $N$ and $M$ are the particles number and the number of down-spin particles, respectively. {}From a solution of the Bethe ansatz equations for $N$ electrons located on a ring in a magnetic field we show that the fine structure is due to electron-electron and Zeeman interactions. Our results are valid in the dilute density limit and for an arbitrary value of the Hubbard repulsion $U$Comment: 40 pages (Latex,Revtex) 12 figures by request, in Technical Reports of ISSP , Ser. A, No.2836 (1994