Exploring the Implications of Monetary Policy Normalisation for Irish Mortgage Arrears. Quarterly Economic Commentary Special Article, Spring 2019.

The current level of the monetary policy rate in the Eurozone is low both by international and historical standards and will likely rise over the coming years. In this Article we consider what the impact of a rise in ECB policy rates would mean for the Irish mortgage market. First, we examine the structure of the Irish mortgage market in terms of interest rate contract types and explore the link between the mortgage rate and the policy rate. Second, we draw out the results of policy modelling linking arrears and interest rates using a model put forward in Slaymaker et al. (2019). We then use this model to provide some further scenarios exploring the impact of interest rate rises on the arrears rate for particular groups of Irish households. Our findings suggest a 25 basis point increase in the policy rate would lead to a 0.1 percentage point increase in new missed mortgage payments. While households are in a better economic position to withstand policy rate increases given the recovery in the labour market and in house prices, rate rises would lead to payments rising faster than long-term income growth. Younger, lower income households who are at an earlier stage in their mortgage contract are more at risk, as are households on tracker interest rates who have a contractual pass-through from the policy rate to the lending rate

Integrated regional vulnerability assessment of government services to climate change

© Emerald Group Publishing Limited. Purpose – This paper aims to describe the conduct and outcomes of an integrated assessment (IA) of the vulnerability to climate change of government service provision at regional scale in New South Wales, Australia. The assessment was co-designed with regional public sector managers to address their needs for an improved understanding of regional vulnerabilities to climate change and variability. Design/methodology/approach – The study used IA of climate change impacts through a complex adaptive systems approach incorporating social learning and stakeholder-led research processes. Workshops were conducted with stakeholders from NSW government agencies, state-owned corporations and local governments representing the tourism, water, primary industries, human settlements, emergency management, human health, infrastructure and natural landscapes sectors. Participants used regional socioeconomic profiling and climate projections to consider the impacts on and the need to adapt community service provision to future climate. Findings – Many sectors are currently experiencing difficulty coping with changes in regional demographics and structural adjustment in the economy. Climate change will result in further impacts on already vulnerable systems in the forms of resource conflicts between expanded human settlements, the infrastructure that supports them and the environment (particularly for water); increased energy costs; and declining agricultural production and food security. Originality/value – This paper describes the application of meta-analysis in climate change policy research and frames climate change as a problem of environmental pollution and an issue of development and social equity

The Clusters AgeS Experiment (CASE). I. V209 omega Cen - An Eclipsing Post-Common Envelope Binary in the Globular Cluster omega Cen

We use photometric and spectroscopic observations of the detached eclipsing binary V209 omega Cen to derive the masses, radii, and luminosities of the component stars. The system exhibits total eclipses and, based on the measured systemic velocity and the derived distance, is a member of the globular cluster omega Cen. We obtain 0.945 +/- 0.043 Msun, 0.983 +/- 0.015 Rsun and 6.68 +/- 0.88 Lsun for the cooler, but larger and more luminous primary component. The secondary component has 0.144 +/- 0.008 Msun, 0.425 +/- 0.008 Rsun and 2.26 +/- 0.28 Lsun. The effective temperatures are estimated at 9370 K for the primary and at 10866 K for the secondary. On the color-magnitude diagram of the cluster, the primary component occupies a position between the tip of the blue straggler region and the extended horizontal branch while the secondary component is located close to the red border of the area occupied by hot subdwarfs. However, its radius is too large and its effective temperature is too low for it to be an sdB star. We propose a scenario leading to the formation of a system with such unusual properties with the primary component ``re-born'' from a former white dwarf which accreted a new envelope through mass transfer from its companion. The secondary star has lost most of its envelope while starting its ascent onto the sub-giant branch. It failed to ignite helium in its core and is currently powered by a hydrogen burning shell.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, AJ, in pres

First Attempt at Spectroscopic Detection of Gravity Modes in a Long-Period Pulsating Subdwarf B Star -- PG 1627+017

In the first spectroscopic campaign for a PG 1716 variable (or long-period pulsating subdwarf B star), we succeeded in detecting velocity variations due to g-mode pulsations at a level of 1.0-1.5 km/s.The observations were obtained during 40 nights on 2-m class telescopes in Arizona, South Africa,and Australia. The target,PG1627+017, is one of the brightest and largest amplitude stars in its class.It is also the visible component of a post-common envelope binary.Our final radial velocity data set includes 84 hours of time-series spectroscopy over a time baseline of 53 days. Our derived radial velocity amplitude spectrum, after subtracting the orbital motion, shows three potential pulsational modes 3-4 sigma above the mean noise level, at 7201.0s,7014.6s and 7037.3s.Only one of the features is statistically likely to be real,but all three are tantalizingly close to, or a one day alias of, the three strongest periodicities found in the concurrent photometric campaign. We further attempted to detect pulsational variations in the Balmer line amplitudes. The single detected periodicity of 7209 s, although weak, is consistent with theoretical expectations as a function of wavelength.Furthermore, it allows us to rule out a degree index of l= 3 or l= 5 for that mode. Given the extreme weakness of g-mode pulsations in these stars,we conclude that anything beyond simply detecting their presence will require larger telescopes,higher efficiency spectral monitoring over longer time baselines,improved longitude coverage, and increased radial velocity precision.Comment: 39 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, ApJ accepted. See postscript for full abtrac

Hot Subdwarfs in Resolved Binaries

In the last decade or so, there have been numerous searches for hot subdwarfs in close binaries. There has been little to no attention paid to wide binaries however. The advantages of understanding these systems can be many. The stars can be assumed to be coeval, which means they have common properties. The distance and metallicity, for example, are both unknown for the subdwarf component, but may be determinable for the secondary, allowing other properties of the subdwarf to be estimated. With this in mind, we have started a search for common proper motion pairs containing a hot subdwarf component. We have uncovered several promising candidate systems, which are presented here.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures. Proceedings of The Fourth Meeting on Hot Subdwarf Stars and Related Objects held in China, 20-24 July 2009. Accepted for publication in Astrophysics and Space Scienc

Interaction between Cape hake spawning and the circulation in the northern Benguela upwelling ecosystem

Cape hake in Namibian waters are demersal and mesopelagic spawners, spawning peaking offshore between 100 and 400 m deep, depending on local environmental conditions. The cross-shelf circulation, low-oxygen layers and mesoscale gyres are three important environmental factors influencing hake spawning behaviour and subsequent transport of the spawning products. Normally, hake spawn offshore near the bottom at depths of 150–400 m. However, during one cruise, spawning was concentrated below several subsurface mesoscale gyres, resulting in reduced dispersion of the eggs and larvae. When the low-oxygen layer above the bottom is pronounced, hake spawning has been observed close to the top of the layer at oxygen concentrations as low as 0.2–0.3 ml l-1. The relatively small size of the eggs and their high specific gravity make them ascend quite slowly from the spawning depths, 10–40 m per day. Consequently, hake eggs spawned deeper than 200 m hatch before they reach the upper mixed layer. The newly hatched larvae are relatively undeveloped, without functional eyes or mouth, and display little swimming activity during their first hours, but laboratory observations have revealed subsequent periods of downward swimming activity. Based on current field observations, on buoyancy measurements of eggs and larvae and on observed larval behaviour, it is concluded that hake eggs and larvae are transported onshore by features of the upwelling subsurface circulation that compensate for offshore movement of surface water. This may be the basic mechanism concentrating early juvenile hake nearshore. Spawning activity near the low-oxygen layer might be a behavioural adaptation to minimize egg predation, because few other species are expected to survive such low concentrations of oxygen.Keywords: buoyancy, eggs, larvae, recruitment processes, retention, vertical distributionAfrican Journal of Marine Science 2001, 23: 317–33

Magnetic fields in central stars of planetary nebulae?

Most of the planetary nebulae (PN) have bipolar or other non-spherically symmetric shapes. The presence of a magnetic field in the central star may be the reason for this lack of symmetry, but observational works published in the literature have so far reported contradictory results. We try to correlate the presence of a magnetic field with the departures from the spherical geometry of the envelopes of planetary nebulae. We determine the magnetic field from spectropolarimetric observations of ten central stars of planetary nebulae. The results of the analysis of the observations of four stars was previously presented and discussed in the literature, while the observations of six stars, plus additional measurements for a star previously observed, are presented here for the first time. All our determinations of magnetic field in the central planetary nebulae are consistent with null results. Our field measurements have a typical error bar of 150-300 G. Previous spurious field detections obtained with FORS were probably due to the use of different wavelength calibration solutions for frames obtained at different position angles of the retarder waveplate. Currently, there is no observational evidence for the presence of magnetic fields with a strength of the order of hundreds Gauss or higher in the central stars of planetary nebulae.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures, accepted for publication by Astronomy and Astrophysic

Oscillation frequencies and mode lifetimes in alpha Centauri A

We analyse our recently-published velocity measurements of alpha Cen A (Butler et al. 2004). After adjusting the weights on a night-by-night basis in order to optimize the window function to minimize sidelobes, we extract 42 oscillation frequencies with l=0 to 3 and measure the large and small frequency separations. We give fitted relations to these frequencies that can be compared with theoretical models and conclude that the observed scatter about these fits is due to the finite lifetimes of the oscillation modes. We estimate the mode lifetimes to be 1-2 d, substantially shorter than in the Sun.Comment: Accepted by Ap

Exomoon simulations

We introduce and describe our newly developed code that simulates light curves and radial velocity curves for arbitrary transiting exoplanets with a satellite. The most important feature of the program is the calculation of radial velocity curves and the Rossiter-McLaughlin effect in such systems. We discuss the possibilities for detecting the exomoons taking the abilities of Extremely Large Telescopes into account. We show that satellites may be detected also by their RM effect in the future, probably using less accurate measurements than promised by the current instrumental developments. Thus, RM effect will be an important observational tool in the exploration of exomoons.Comment: 5 pages, 2 figures with 9 figure panels, accepted by EM&

Mode identification from monochromatic amplitude and phase variations for the rapidly pulsating subdwarf B star EC 20338-1925

We obtain time-series spectrophotometry observations at the VLT with the aim of partially identifying the dominant oscillation modes in the rapidly pulsating subdwarf B star EC 20338-1925 on the basis of monochromatic amplitude and phase variations. From the data gathered, we detect four previously known pulsations with periods near 147, 168, 126 and 140 s and amplitudes between 0.2 and 2.3 % of the star's mean brightness. We also determine the atmospheric parameters of EC 20338-1925 by fitting our non-LTE model atmospheres to an averaged combined spectrum. The inferred parameters are Teff = 34,153+-94 K, log g =5.966+-0.017 and log[N(He)/N(H)] = - 1.642+-0.022, where the uncertainty estimates quoted refer to the formal fitting errors. Finally, we calculate the observed monochromatic amplitudes and phases for the periodicities extracted using least-squares fitting to the light curves obtained for each wavelength bin. These observed quantities are then compared to the corresponding theoretical values computed on the basis of dedicated model atmosphere codes and also taking into account non-adiabatic effects. We find that the quality of the data is sufficient to identify the dominant pulsation at 146.9 s as a radial mode, while two of the lower amplitude periodicities must be low-degree modes with l=0-2. This is the first time that monochromatic amplitudes and phases have been used for mode identification in a subdwarf B star, and the results are highly encouraging.Comment: 11 pages. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic