Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability

Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this precipitation response can be explained by El Niño’s spatial pattern, rather than internal atmospheric variability. In addition, observations and large-ensembles of regional and global climate model simulations indicate that extremes in seasonal and daily precipitation during strong El Niño events are better explained using the ENSO Longitude Index (ELI), which captures the diversity of ENSO’s spatial patterns in a single metric, compared to the traditional Niño3.4 index, which measures SST anomalies in a fixed region and therefore fails to capture ENSO diversity. The physically-based ELI better explains western US precipitation variability because it tracks the zonal shifts in tropical Pacific deep convection that drive teleconnections through the response in the extratropical wave-train, integrated vapor transport, and atmospheric rivers. This research provides evidence that ELI improves the value of ENSO as a predictor of California’s seasonal hydroclimate extremes compared to traditional ENSO indices, especially during strong El Niño events

New evidence on the management of Lewy body dementia

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordNote that the article title of the accepted author manuscript is different to that of the final published version.Dementia with Lewy bodies and Parkinson’s disease dementia, jointly known as Lewy body dementia (LBD), are common neurodegenerative conditions. Patients with LBD present with a wide range of cognitive, neuropsychiatric, sleep, motor, and autonomic symptoms. The expression of these varies between individual patients, and over time. Treatments may benefit one symptom, but at the expense of worsening another, making management difficult. Often symptoms are managed in isolation and by different specialists, which undermines high quality care. Clinical trials and meta-analyses now provide an improved evidence base for the treatment of cognitive, neuropsychiatric and motor symptoms in LBD, in addition to which expert consensus opinion supports the application of treatments from related conditions such as Parkinson’s disease (PD) for the management of, for example, autonomic symptoms. There remain however clear evidence gaps and there is a high need for future clinical trials focused on specific symptoms in LBD.National Institute for Health Research (NIHR

Neuroimaging of Inflammation in Memory and Related Other Disorders (NIMROD) study protocol: a deep phenotyping cohort study of the role of brain inflammation in dementia, depression and other neurological illnesses

$\textit{Introduction}$ Inflammation of the central nervous system is increasingly regarded as having a role in cognitive disorders such as dementia and depression, but it is not clear how such neuroinflammation relates to other aspects of neuropathology (e.g., tau and amyloid pathology) as well as to structural and functional changes in the brain and symptoms (as assessed via MRI and clinical and neuropsychological assessment). This study will explore these pathophysiological mechanisms using positron emission tomography (PET) which allows $\textit{in vivo}$ imaging of inflammation, amyloid and tau deposition, together with neuropsychological profiling, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and peripheral biomarker analysis. \textit{Methods & analysis} Using PET imaging of the ligand [11C]PK11195 we will test for increased neuroinflammation $\textit{in vivo}$ in patients with Alzheimer’s disease, Lewy body dementia, frontotemporal dementia, progressive supranuclear palsy, late onset depression and mild cognitive impairment, when compared to healthy controls. We will assess whether areas of inflammatory change are associated with amyloid and tau deposition (assessed using $^{11}$C-labelled Pittsburgh Compound B ([$^{11}$C]PiB) and $^{18}$F-labelled AV-1451 respectively), as well as structural and functional connectivity changes found on MRI. Inflammatory biomarker analysis and immune-phenotyping of peripheral blood monocytes will determine the correlation between central (i.e., neural) and peripheral inflammation. Finally, we will examine whether neuroinflammatory changes seen on PET imaging are associated with global and domain specific cognitive impairments, or predict cognitive decline over 12 months. \textit{Ethics & dissemination} The study protocol was approved by the local ethics committee, East of England - Cambridge Central Research Ethics Committee (reference: 13/EE/0104). The study is also ARSAC approved as part of this process. Data will be disseminated by presentation at national and international conferences and by publication, predominantly in journals of neuroscience as well as clinical neurology and psychiatry. $\textit{Strengths}$ Multimodal deep phenotyping Comparisons between diseases as well as with controls Longitudinal neuropsychology data Comparison of central and peripheral inflammation $\textit{Weaknesses}$ Lack of longitudinal neuroimaging Not a prospective study, unable to assess causationThe study is funded by the UK National Institute of Health Research Cambridge Biomedical Research Unit in Dementia (Project 4 - RNAG/293). JBR is supported by the Wellcome Trust (103838). JPC is supported by the UK National Institute of Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at Cambridge. PVR is supported by the PSP Association

Estimating the incidence of acute infectious intestinal disease in the community in the UK:A retrospective telephone survey

Objectives: To estimate the burden of intestinal infectious disease (IID) in the UK and determine whether disease burden estimations using a retrospective study design differ from those using a prospective study design. Design/Setting: A retrospective telephone survey undertaken in each of the four countries comprising the United Kingdom. Participants were randomly asked about illness either in the past 7 or 28 days. Participants: 14,813 individuals for all of whom we had a legible recording of their agreement to participate Outcomes: Self-reported IID, defined as loose stools or clinically significant vomiting lasting less than two weeks, in the absence of a known non-infectious cause. Results: The rate of self-reported IID varied substantially depending on whether asked for illness in the previous 7 or 28 days. After standardising for age and sex, and adjusting for the number of interviews completed each month and the relative size of each UK country, the estimated rate of IID in the 7-day recall group was 1,530 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 1135 – 2113), while in the 28-day recall group it was 533 cases per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 377 – 778). There was no significant variation in rates between the four countries. Rates in this study were also higher than in a related prospective study undertaken at the same time. Conclusions: The estimated burden of disease from IID varied dramatically depending on study design. Retrospective studies of IID give higher estimates of disease burden than prospective studies. Of retrospective studies longer recall periods give lower estimated rates than studies with short recall periods. Caution needs to be exercised when comparing studies of self-reported IID as small changes in study design or case definition can markedly affect estimated rates

Monthly quasi-periodic eruptions from repeated stellar disruption by a massive black hole

In recent years, searches of archival X-ray data have revealed galaxies exhibiting nuclear quasi-periodic eruptions with periods of several hours. These are reminiscent of the tidal disruption of a star by a supermassive black hole. The repeated, partial stripping of a white dwarf in an eccentric orbit around an ~105 M⊙ black hole provides an attractive model. A separate class of periodic nuclear transients, with much longer timescales, have recently been discovered optically and may arise from the partial stripping of a main-sequence star by an ~107 M⊙ black hole. No clear connection between these classes has been made. We present the discovery of an X-ray nuclear transient that shows quasi-periodic outbursts with a period of weeks. We discuss possible origins for the emission and propose that this system bridges the two existing classes outlined above. This discovery was made possible by the rapid identification, dissemination and follow-up of an X-ray transient found by the new live Swift-XRT transient detector, demonstrating the importance of low-latency, sensitive searches for X-ray transients

Quantum Computing

Quantum mechanics---the theory describing the fundamental workings of nature---is famously counterintuitive: it predicts that a particle can be in two places at the same time, and that two remote particles can be inextricably and instantaneously linked. These predictions have been the topic of intense metaphysical debate ever since the theory's inception early last century. However, supreme predictive power combined with direct experimental observation of some of these unusual phenomena leave little doubt as to its fundamental correctness. In fact, without quantum mechanics we could not explain the workings of a laser, nor indeed how a fridge magnet operates. Over the last several decades quantum information science has emerged to seek answers to the question: can we gain some advantage by storing, transmitting and processing information encoded in systems that exhibit these unique quantum properties? Today it is understood that the answer is yes. Many research groups around the world are working towards one of the most ambitious goals humankind has ever embarked upon: a quantum computer that promises to exponentially improve computational power for particular tasks. A number of physical systems, spanning much of modern physics, are being developed for this task---ranging from single particles of light to superconducting circuits---and it is not yet clear which, if any, will ultimately prove successful. Here we describe the latest developments for each of the leading approaches and explain what the major challenges are for the future.Comment: 26 pages, 7 figures, 291 references. Early draft of Nature 464, 45-53 (4 March 2010). Published version is more up-to-date and has several corrections, but is half the length with far fewer reference

Binary orbits as the driver of γ-ray emission and mass ejection in classical novae

Classical novae are the most common astrophysical thermonuclear explosions, occurring on the surfaces of white dwarf stars accreting gas from companions in binary star systems. Novae typically expel �10,000 solar masses of material at velocities exceeding 1,000 km/s. However, the mechanism of mass ejection in novae is poorly understood, and could be dominated by the impulsive flash of the thermonuclear runaway, prolonged optically thick winds, or binary interaction with the nova envelope. Classical novae are now routinely detected in GeV gamma-rays, suggesting that relativistic particles are accelerated by strong shocks in nova ejecta. Here we present high-resolution imaging of the gamma-ray-emitting nova V959 Mon at radio wavelengths, showing that its ejecta were shaped by binary motion: some gas was expelled rapidly along the poles as a wind from the white dwarf, while denser material drifted out along the equatorial plane, propelled by orbital motion. At the interface between the equatorial and polar regions, we observe synchrotron emission indicative of shocks and relativistic particle acceleration, thereby pinpointing the location of gamma-ray production. Binary shaping of the nova ejecta and associated internal shocks are expected to be widespread among novae, explaining why many novae are gamma-ray emitters

Konstruktivistische Ansätze in der Erwachsenenbildung und Weiterbildung

Theoretical approaches in the field of further education and advanced vocational training have to face multifaceted demands: the analysis of knowledge aquisition and knowledge transfer and its instructional support as well as the revealment of the mechanisms which influence further education on an organisational level in companies. This article describes, that herefore especially moderate constructivistic approaches are useful. After an introduction to the philosophical tradition of these approaches and important characteristics of adult learning, two examples of constructivistic models are being described particularly: The theory of situated learning environments and career counseling. Concluding it is shown, that a moderate constructive perspective fulfils important criteria for the theoretic modelling of further education processes.Theoretische Ansätze in der Erwachsenen- und insbesondere in der beruflichen Weiterbildung müssen sich vielfältigen Ansprüchen stellen: der Analyse des Wissenserwerbs und Wissenstransfers und seiner instruktionalen Unterstützung ebenso wie der Aufdeckung der Mechanismen, die in den Betrieben auf organisatorischer Ebene die Weiterbildung beeinflussen. In diesem Beitrag wird die Auffassung vertreten, daß dafür insbesondere liberalisierte konstruktivistische Ansätze gut geeignet sind. Nach einer Einführung in die philosophische Tradition dieser Ansätze und wichtiger Merkmale des Lernens im Erwachsenenalter werden zwei Beispiele konstruktivistischer Modelle genauer beschrieben: die Theorie situierter Lernumgebungen und das career counseling. Abschließend wird gezeigt, daß eine liberalisierte konstruktivistische Perspektive wichtige Kriterien für die theoretische Modellierung von Weiterbildungsprozessen erfüllt

What is the role of the film viewer? The effects of narrative comprehension and viewing task on gaze control in film

Film is ubiquitous, but the processes that guide viewers' attention while viewing film narratives are poorly understood. In fact, many film theorists and practitioners disagree on whether the film stimulus (bottom-up) or the viewer (top-down) is more important in determining how we watch movies. Reading research has shown a strong connection between eye movements and comprehension, and scene perception studies have shown strong effects of viewing tasks on eye movements, but such idiosyncratic top-down control of gaze in film would be anathema to the universal control mainstream filmmakers typically aim for. Thus, in two experiments we tested whether the eye movements and comprehension relationship similarly held in a classic film example, the famous opening scene of Orson Welles' Touch of Evil (Welles & Zugsmith, Touch of Evil, 1958). Comprehension differences were compared with more volitionally controlled task-based effects on eye movements. To investigate the effects of comprehension on eye movements during film viewing, we manipulated viewers' comprehension by starting participants at different points in a film, and then tracked their eyes. Overall, the manipulation created large differences in comprehension, but only produced modest differences in eye movements. To amplify top-down effects on eye movements, a task manipulation was designed to prioritize peripheral scene features: a map task. This task manipulation created large differences in eye movements when compared to participants freely viewing the clip for comprehension. Thus, to allow for strong, volitional top-down control of eye movements in film, task manipulations need to make features that are important to narrative comprehension irrelevant to the viewing task. The evidence provided by this experimental case study suggests that filmmakers' belief in their ability to create systematic gaze behavior across viewers is confirmed, but that this does not indicate universally similar comprehension of the film narrative