ON EXTREME VALUE THEORY IN MODELING NIGERIA MARINE AND AVIATION INSURANCE CLASS OF BUSINESS

Extreme value theory is applied to model extreme occurrences, and it is applied in business and finance to measure tail risk. Marine and aviation class of insurance business is an important component of non-life business because it insures all risks relating to aviation and marine vessels which play a significant role in the economic development of Nigeria. Recent claims experience has necessitated the investigation of tail risks with a small probability of occurrence but with high potential impact on a company’s survival. The study employs the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the minimum expected claims for the marine and aviation insurance business using historical claims data. Diagnostics plot like the mean excess plot suggest the threshold to choose, to fit a Generalized Pareto model based on EVT and the excess distributions were obtained over a chosen threshold. Linear Q-Q plots and tail plots reveal that the parametric model fits the data well. VaR estimate was finally obtained using the extreme value method at a 5% confidence interval and the empirical results show that Extreme VaR is most suitable to calculate VaR as against the Historical and Gaussian methods. This will guide proper underwriting process and loss reserving in this class of business

EDUCATIONAL AWARENESS OF FACTORS REDUCING MATERNAL MORTALITY IN RURAL COMMUNITIES IN OGUN STATE NIGERIA

The study aimed at educational awareness of non–medical factors associated with maternal mortality reduction and to proffer policy guidelines for informed policy intervention. We analyzed secondary data from the 2010 Covenant University project on non-medical determinants of maternal mortality in Ado-Odo/Ota Local Government Area, Ogun State. The study employed an informant approach questionnaire design, and information on maternal mortality was recorded from 360 eligible respondents which constituted the sample size and descriptive statistics and regression analysis were further applied. The study shows among others that majority of the respondents married between the ages of 25 and 44 with a proportion of 64.2 percent. As for the deceased spouse, an overwhelming proportion of the deceased spouses got married below 30 years (64.2%). Employment status of respondents showed that those not working registered 22.5 percent and their deceased counter parts in the same working status accounts for higher proportion (39.9). The highest level of education attained by majority of the respondents interviewed was secondary education (48.1%), followed by primary education (28.6%). For the education of their deceased spouses, it was observed that 50% of them had only primary education followed by those who attained secondary school (26.7%) and those who never went to school (19.7%). The educational attainment of the deceased was very poor when compared to their husbands in all categories. Distance is a very important factor in the utilization of health facility. Slightly above three-fourths of respondents (75.2%) have to travel 6 km and beyond to access or avail themselves this facility. Treatment costs was mainly born by the respondents (49.7%) and spouse’s relatives and friends (36.7%) Regression analysis results showed that ‘person who pays the treatment costs’ (p=0.003) and ‘place of consultation’ (p=0.000) were non-medical significant factors influencing maternal mortality reduction. The study recommends empowering and improving the status of women through better education and paid out of home employment in order to reduce maternal mortality and prompt better Safe Motherhood Initiative, Also providing educational awareness of non–medical factors associated with maternal mortality to men is likely to herald positive decision and better treatment to women from men especially during the journey of pregnancy and child birth

Urban flood risks and emerging challenges in a Chinese delta: The case of the Pearl River Delta

By the 2050s, more than 120 million people are predicted to settle in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), which covers large coastal cities such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Cities in the PRD are vitally important to China in relation to their socio-economic contributions. From recent evidence, this strongly urbanized area is vulnerable to, and currently facing bigger incidences of, coastal and urban flooding. Flood risk is growing in low-lying coastal areas due to rapid urbanization and increasing flood hazards exacerbated by climate change. Frequent intensive rainstorms, sea-level rise, typhoons and surges threaten large populations and their economic assets, causing severe socio-economic and ecological impacts in the PRD cities. Current flood risk management (FRM) in the delta is still predominately focused on using traditional techno-fixes and infrastructure paradigms, lacking sufficient strategic planning and flood protection to develop adequate flood resilience. Recent urban floods, enhanced by storm surges and intensive rainstorms, have affected multiple PRD cities and drawn attention to flood risk as a major challenge in the PRD’s coastal cities. This review encourages development of long-term FRM practices with provincial and municipal authorities working together more closely to develop better-integrated regional FRM strategies for the PRD

Direct neutron capture cross section on Ge 80 and probing shape coexistence in neutron-rich nuclei

Results are presented from the first neutron-transfer measurement on Ge80 using an exotic beam from the Holifield Radioactive Ion Beam Facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Newly measured spins and spectroscopic factors of low-lying states of Ge81 are determined, and the neutron capture cross section on Ge80 was calculated in a direct-semidirect model to provide a more realistic (n,γ) reaction rate for r-process simulations. Furthermore, a region of shape coexistence around N≈50 is confirmed and implications for the magic nature of Ni78 are discussed

A media framing analysis of urban flooding in Nigeria: current narratives and implications for policy

© 2017, The Author(s). A critical element of current flood management is the importance of engaging key policy actors when policy decisions are to be made. However, there is still only limited understanding of how narratives of flood management actors may influence flood management policies, even though there is a suggestion that actors can strategically use their narratives to influence policy directions. In a developing country like Nigeria, there are still questions around lessons that can be learnt from understanding the narratives of policy actors, to unravel the complex nature of strategies and policy directions in managing urban floods. To help fill these gaps, this paper uses quantitative content analysis to explore the frame of five policy actor groups (government, local communities, business, multilateral organisations and non-governmental organisations (NGOs)) as expressed in local and national newspapers between 2012 and 2016 to understand their narratives of causes and strategies to solve the problem of urban flooding in Nigeria. The narratives of government, local communities and businesses align with the premise that flooding can and should be prevented whilst that of multilateral and business actors champion adaptation strategies on the basis that flooding is inevitable and hence more energy should be directed at ‘living with water’—emergency response, damage reduction and the aftermath. The study also identified areas of potential consensus and conflict between direct actors such as government and local communities on the one hand and funders on the other. Better discussion among actors aiding understanding of contemporary thinking and local realities will aid policy-making and policy implementation in the Nigerian context. An important step will be in the collaborative design of an urgently needed ‘Nigerian policy on flooding’ which currently does not exist

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700