Export Performance and Competitiveness of the Irish Economy

This paper reviews Ireland’s recent export performance, with emphasis on the reasons behind the strong gains in market share experienced by the economy over the past 15 years.

The Impact of Oil Prices on Irish Inflation

Oil prices have been characterised by large fluctuations in recent years. Strong volatility in oil prices has important implications for the Irish economy as Ireland has a relatively poor fuel endowment and relies heavily on imported oil. Energy price increases have been one of the principal drivers behind HICP inflation rates in Ireland in recent years. This article highlights the distinctive features of the Irish energy market which render the impact of oil price changes on Irish inflation different to the average impact felt at the euro area level. The direct effects on inflation are stronger in Ireland than in the euro area, reflecting the higher dependence on both oil and gas. The pass-through of higher oil prices to petrol and diesel prices at the pumps is slower than the euro area average but there is no evidence of pricing asymmetries. Indirect effects appear to be of a similar order of magnitude to the euro area average. Given the Irish economy’s relatively high wage flexibility, and in particular the low incidence of automatic wage indexation, it is likely that second-round effects in Ireland are more contained than in the euro area. Irish pre-tax diesel and petrol prices are roughly comparable to euro area levels reflective of improved competition, whereas heating fuel is considerably more expensive. Pre-tax electricity and gas prices remain significantly above the euro area average and further steps are needed on the path to full liberalisation of the retail electricity and gas markets. Measures to reduce oil and gas dependency by, for example, greater recourse to renewable energy resources, will help mitigate the impact that oil price fluctuations have on Irish inflation.

Now-casting Irish GDP

In this paper we present "now-casts" of Irish GDP using timely data from a panel data set of 41 different variables. The approach seeks to resolve two issues which commonly confront forecastors of GDP - how to parsimoniously avail of the many different series, which can potentially influence GDP and how to reconcile the within-quarterly release of many of these series with the quarterly estimates of GDP? The now-casts in this paper are generated by firstly, using dynamic factor analysis to extract a common factor from the panel data set and, secondly, through use of bridging equations to relate the monthly data to the quarterly GDP estimates. We conduct an out-of-sample forecasting simulation exercise, where the results of the now-casting exercise are compared with those of a standard benchmark model.

Nowcasting Irish GDP

In this paper we present a dynamic factor model that produces nowcasts and backcasts of Irish quarterly GDP using timely data from a panel dataset of 35 indicators. We apply a recently developed methodology, whereby numerous potentially useful indicator series for Irish GDP can be availed of in a parsimonious manner and the unsynchronized nature of the release calendar for a wide range of higher frequency indicators can be handled. The nowcasts in this paper are generated by using dynamic factor analysis to extract common factors from the panel dataset. Bridge equations are then used to relate these factors to quarterly GDP estimates. We conduct an out-of-sample forecasting simulation exercise, where the performance of the factor model is compared with that of a standard benchmark model

Nowcasting Irish GDP

In this paper we present a dynamic factor model that produces nowcasts and backcasts of Irish quarterly GDP using timely data from a panel dataset of 35 indicators. We apply a recently developed methodology, whereby numerous potentially useful indicator series for Irish GDP can be availed of in a parsimonious manner and the unsynchronized nature of the release calendar for a wide range of higher frequency indicators can be handled. The nowcasts in this paper are generated by using dynamic factor analysis to extract common factors from the panel dataset. Bridge equations are then used to relate these factors to quarterly GDP estimates. We conduct an out-of-sample forecasting simulation exercise, where the performance of the factor model is compared with that of a standard benchmark model

Polymorphisms of CUL5 are Associated with CD4+ T Cell Loss in HIV-1 Infected Individuals

Human apolipoprotein B mRNA editing enzyme, catalytic polypeptide-like 3 (Apobec3) antiretroviral factors cause hypermutation of proviral DNA leading to degradation or replication-incompetent HIV-1. However, HIV-1 viral infectivity factor (Vif) suppresses Apobec3 activity through the Cullin 5-Elongin B-Elongin C E3 ubiquitin ligase complex. We examined the effect of genetic polymorphisms in the CUL5 gene (encoding Cullin 5 protein) on AIDS disease progression in five HIV-1 longitudinal cohorts. A total of 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) spanning 93 kb in the CUL5 locus were genotyped and their haplotypes inferred. A phylogenetic network analysis revealed that CUL5 haplotypes were grouped into two clusters of evolutionarily related haplotypes. Cox survival analysis and mixed effects models were used to assess time to AIDS outcomes and CD4+ T cell trajectories, respectively. Relative to cluster I haplotypes, the collective cluster II haplotypes were associated with more rapid CD4+ T cell loss (relative hazards [RH] = 1.47 and p = 0.009), in a dose-dependent fashion. This effect was mainly attributable to a single cluster II haplotype (Hap10) (RH = 2.49 and p = 0.00001), possibly due to differential nuclear protein–binding efficiencies of a Hap10-specifying SNP as indicated by a gel shift assay. Consistent effects were observed for CD4+ T cell counts and HIV-1 viral load trajectories over time. The findings of both functional and genetic epidemiologic consequences of CUL5 polymorphism on CD4+ T cell and HIV-1 levels point to a role for Cullin 5 in HIV-1 pathogenesis and suggest interference with the Vif-Cullin 5 pathway as a possible anti-HIV-1 therapeutic strategy

OMG Do Not Say LOL: Obese Adolescents' Perspectives on the Content of Text Messages to Enhance Weight Loss Efforts

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/93769/1/oby.2011.266.pd

An X-ray Baldwin effect for the narrow Fe K-alpha lines observed in Active Galactic Nuclei

The majority of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) observed by XMM-Newton reveal narrow Fe K-alpha lines at ~ 6.4 keV, due to emission from cold (neutral) material. There is an X-ray Baldwin effect in Type I AGN, in that the equivalent width of the line decreases with increasing luminosity, with weighted linear regression giving EW ~ L^{-0.17+/-0.08} (Spearman Rank probability of > 99.9%). With current instrumental capabilities it is not possible to determine the precise origin for the narrow line, with both the Broad Line Region and putative molecular torus being possibilities. A possible explanation for the X-ray Baldwin effect is a decrease in covering factor of the material forming the fluorescence line.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, accepted by MNRA

Paracetamol (acetaminophen) with or without codeine or dihydrocodeine for neuropathic pain in adults

BACKGROUND Paracetamol, either alone or in combination with codeine or dihydrocodeine, is commonly used to treat chronic neuropathic pain. This review sought evidence for efficacy and harm from randomised double-blind studies. OBJECTIVES To assess the analgesic efficacy and adverse events of paracetamol with or without codeine or dihydrocodeine for chronic neuropathic pain in adults. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and Embase from inception to July 2016, together with reference lists of retrieved papers and reviews, and two online study registries. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised, double-blind studies of two weeks' duration or longer, comparing paracetamol, alone or in combination with codeine or dihydrocodeine, with placebo or another active treatment in chronic neuropathic pain. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently searched for studies, extracted efficacy and adverse event data, and examined issues of study quality and potential bias. We did not carry out any pooled analyses. We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. MAIN RESULTS No study satisfied the inclusion criteria. Effects of interventions were not assessed as there were no included studies. We have only very low quality evidence and have no reliable indication of the likely effect. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS There is insufficient evidence to support or refute the suggestion that paracetamol alone, or in combination with codeine or dihydrocodeine, works in any neuropathic pain condition

Buprenorphine for neuropathic pain in adults

BACKGROUND Opioid drugs, including buprenorphine, are commonly used to treat neuropathic pain, and are considered effective by some professionals. Most reviews have examined all opioids together. This review sought evidence specifically for buprenorphine, at any dose, and by any route of administration. Other opioids are considered in separate reviews. OBJECTIVES To assess the analgesic efficacy of buprenorphine for chronic neuropathic pain in adults, and the adverse events associated with its use in clinical trials. SEARCH METHODS We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, and EMBASE from inception to 11 June 2015, together with reference lists of retrieved papers and reviews, and two online study registries. SELECTION CRITERIA We included randomised, double-blind studies of two weeks' duration or longer, comparing any oral dose or formulation of buprenorphine with placebo or another active treatment in chronic neuropathic pain. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS Two review authors independently searched for studies, extracted efficacy and adverse event data, and examined issues of study quality. We did not carry out any pooled analyses. MAIN RESULTS Searches identified 10 published studies, and one study with results in ClinicalTrials.gov. None of these 11 studies satisfied our inclusion criteria, and so we included no studies in the review. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS There was insufficient evidence to support or refute the suggestion that buprenorphine has any efficacy in any neuropathic pain condition