A method for modeling bias in a person's estimates of likelihoods of events

It is of practical importance in decision situations involving risk to train individuals to transform uncertainties into subjective probability estimates that are both accurate and unbiased. We have found that in decision situations involving risk, people often introduce subjective bias in their estimation of the likelihoods of events depending on whether the possible outcomes are perceived as being good or bad. Until now, however, the successful measurement of individual differences in the magnitude of such biases has not been attempted. In this paper we illustrate a modification of a procedure originally outlined by Davidson, Suppes, and Siegel (3) to allow for a quantitatively-based methodology for simultaneously estimating an individual's subjective utility and subjective probability functions. The procedure is now an interactive computer-based algorithm, DSS, that allows for the measurement of biases in probability estimation by obtaining independent measures of two subjective probability functions (S+ and S-) for winning (i.e., good outcomes) and for losing (i.e., bad outcomes) respectively for each individual, and for different experimental conditions within individuals. The algorithm and some recent empirical data are described

Incorporating affective bias in models of human decision making

Research on human decision making has traditionally focused on how people actually make decisions, how good their decisions are, and how their decisions can be improved. Recent research suggests that this model is inadequate. Affective as well as cognitive components drive the way information about relevant outcomes and events is perceived, integrated, and used in the decision making process. The affective components include how the individual frames outcomes as good or bad, whether the individual anticipates regret in a decision situation, the affective mood state of the individual, and the psychological stress level anticipated or experienced in the decision situation. A focus of the current work has been to propose empirical studies that will attempt to examine in more detail the relationships between the latter two critical affective influences (mood state and stress) on decision making behavior

How sensorimotor interaction shapes and supports young children's gestural communication around science

Research has demonstrated that gesture produced during conversation can provide insights into scientific thinking and can aid scientific communication in adults and school-aged children. However, to date, there has been a limited exploration into the role of gesture in supporting young children’s science communication, and how this is underpinned and shaped by their sensorimotor experiences. This study examines, identifies and conceptualises ways in which children spontaneously used gesture during their interaction-orientated discourse and how this mapped to their action experiences at a water table. Findings show how gestural communication in children under 5 years of age can convey different levels of complexity related to science thinking

Individual common variants exert weak effects on the risk for autism spectrum disorders.

While it is apparent that rare variation can play an important role in the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), the contribution of common variation to the risk of developing ASD is less clear. To produce a more comprehensive picture, we report Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project genome-wide association study, adding 1301 ASD families and bringing the total to 2705 families analysed (Stages 1 and 2). In addition to evaluating the association of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we also sought evidence that common variants, en masse, might affect the risk. Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level. The SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101. It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD. This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2. In contrast, allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample. Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%). Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest

Variations of the Candidate SEZ6L2 Gene on Chromosome 16p11.2 in Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorders and in Human Populations

Background: Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are a group of severe childhood neurodevelopmental disorders with still unknown etiology. One of the most frequently reported associations is the presence of recurrent de novo or inherited microdeletions and microduplications on chromosome 16p11.2. The analysis of rare variations of 8 candidate genes among the 27 genes located in this region suggested SEZ6L2 as a compelling candidate. Methodology/Principal Findings: We further explored the role of SEZ6L2 variations by screening its coding part in a group of 452 individuals, including 170 patients with ASD and 282 individuals from different ethnic backgrounds of the Human Genome Diversity Panel (HGDP), complementing the previously reported screening. We detected 7 previously unidentified non-synonymous variations of SEZ6L2 in ASD patients. We also identified 6 non-synonymous variations present only in HGDP. When we merged our results with the previously published, no enrichment of non-synonymous variation in SEZ6L2 was observed in the ASD group compared with controls. Conclusions/Significance: Our results provide an extensive ascertainment of the genetic variability of SEZ6L2 in human populations and do not support a major role for SEZ6L2 sequence variations in the susceptibility to ASD

Search for charginos in e+e- interactions at sqrt(s) = 189 GeV

An update of the searches for charginos and gravitinos is presented, based on a data sample corresponding to the 158 pb^{-1} recorded by the DELPHI detector in 1998, at a centre-of-mass energy of 189 GeV. No evidence for a signal was found. The lower mass limits are 4-5 GeV/c^2 higher than those obtained at a centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV. The (\mu,M_2) MSSM domain excluded by combining the chargino searches with neutralino searches at the Z resonance implies a limit on the mass of the lightest neutralino which, for a heavy sneutrino, is constrained to be above 31.0 GeV/c^2 for tan(beta) \geq 1.Comment: 22 pages, 8 figure

Search for composite and exotic fermions at LEP 2

A search for unstable heavy fermions with the DELPHI detector at LEP is reported. Sequential and non-canonical leptons, as well as excited leptons and quarks, are considered. The data analysed correspond to an integrated luminosity of about 48 pb^{-1} at an e^+e^- centre-of-mass energy of 183 GeV and about 20 pb^{-1} equally shared between the centre-of-mass energies of 172 GeV and 161 GeV. The search for pair-produced new leptons establishes 95% confidence level mass limits in the region between 70 GeV/c^2 and 90 GeV/c^2, depending on the channel. The search for singly produced excited leptons and quarks establishes upper limits on the ratio of the coupling of the excited fermio