Effects of Natural Resource Abundance on Institutions: Which, Where and When?

Much research has gone into the effects of oil and other natural resources on growth in which political institutions are often seen as the link between the two. Since institutions are difficult to measure and change very slowly over time, the analysis has largely been confined to cross-country comparisons, most frequently investigating the effects on levels of democracy. This paper builds on recent analyses of the effects of oil endowments, prices and exports on democracy to examine the effects on several different types of institutional change, making use of panel data on over 100 countries between 1975 and 2005 wherever possible. The results distinguish between three characteristics of oil endowments which may also serve as channels through which their effects on the different institutions are realized. These include wealth, experience in the industry, and rents per unit of the resource exploited and reveal some findings which seem to depart sharply from conventional ones. Above all, they indicate the diversity in effects of oil on institutional change from one institution to another as well as according to the timing of the industry’s development and the magnitude of the endowment in each individual country

PTF11kx: A Type Ia Supernova with Hydrogen Emission Persisting After 3.5 Years

The optical transient PTF11kx exhibited both the characteristic spectral features of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and the signature of ejecta interacting with circumstellar material (CSM) containing hydrogen, indicating the presence of a nondegenerate companion. We present an optical spectrum at $1342$ days after peak from Keck Observatory, in which the broad component of H$\alpha$ emission persists with a similar profile as in early-time observations. We also present $Spitzer$ IRAC detections obtained $1237$ and $1818$ days after peak, and an upper limit from $HST$ ultraviolet imaging at $2133$ days. We interpret our late-time observations in context with published results - and reinterpret the early-time observations - in order to constrain the CSM's physical parameters and compare to theoretical predictions for recurrent nova systems. We find that the CSM's radial extent may be several times the distance between the star and the CSM's inner edge, and that the CSM column density may be two orders of magnitude lower than previous estimates. We show that the H$\alpha$ luminosity decline is similar to other SNe with CSM interaction, and demonstrate how our infrared photometry is evidence for newly formed, collisionally heated dust. We create a model for PTF11kx's late-time CSM interaction and find that X-ray reprocessing by photoionization and recombination cannot reproduce the observed H$\alpha$ luminosity, suggesting that the X-rays are thermalized and that H$\alpha$ radiates from collisional excitation. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results regarding the progenitor scenario and the geometric properties of the CSM for the PTF11kx system.Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; submitted to Ap

Valuing conservation benefits of disease control in wildlife: A choice experiment approach to bovine tuberculosis management in New Zealand's native forests

We assess the non-monetary environmental benefits that accrue incidentally in New Zealand (NZ) from pest management conducted primarily to control an animal disease, bovine tuberculosis (TB). TB is an infectious disease that is one of the world's most serious animal health problems and, in many parts of the developing world, still a major mortality risk for humans. The incidence of TB in New Zealand (NZ) farmed livestock has been reduced progressively over the last 20 years, largely due to extensive and sustained population control of the main wildlife reservoir of disease, the introduced brushtail possum. Possums are also major pests that threaten indigenous forest biodiversity, and so extensive possum control for TB mitigation also incidental benefits conservation, but the extent and public value of this benefit has yet to be quantified. We conducted a choice experiment survey of the NZ public in an effort to value the native forest biodiversity benefits of TB-related possum control. We find strong public support for conservation outcomes consequent to TB-possum control in public native forests. The public place substantial value on the most observable biodiversity benefits of TB possum control, such as improved forest canopies and presence of native birds. The benefits, costs and values of TB-possum control are discussed in relation to the future directives of NZ's TB control programme, which is headed toward first regional and then national level disease eradication

Constraining the Progenitor Companion of the Nearby Type Ia SN 2011fe with a Nebular Spectrum at +981 Days

We present an optical nebular spectrum of the nearby Type Ia supernova 2011fe, obtained 981 days after explosion. SN 2011fe exhibits little evolution since the +593 day optical spectrum, but there are several curious aspects in this new extremely late-time regime. We suggest that the persistence of the $\sim5800$~\AA\ feature is due to Na I D, and that a new emission feature at $\sim7300$~\AA\ may be [Ca II]. Also, we discuss whether the new emission feature at $\sim6400$~\AA\ might be [Fe I] or the high-velocity hydrogen predicted by Mazzali et al. The nebular feature at 5200~\AA\ exhibits a linear velocity evolution of $\sim350$ $\rm km\ s^{-1}$ per 100 days from at least +220 to +980 days, but the line's shape also changes in this time, suggesting that line blending contributes to the evolution. At $\sim 1000$ days after explosion, flux from the SN has declined to a point where contribution from a luminous secondary could be detected. In this work we make the first observational tests for a post-impact remnant star and constrain its temperature and luminosity to $T \gtrsim 10^4$ $\rm K$ and $L \lesssim 10^4$ $\rm L_{\odot}$. Additionally, we do not see any evidence for narrow H$\alpha$ emission in our spectrum. We conclude that observations continue to strongly exclude many single-degenerate scenarios for SN 2011fe.Comment: 11 pages, 10 figures, published by MNRA

Reliable Discrimination of 10 Ungulate Species Using High Resolution Melting Analysis of Faecal DNA

Identifying species occupying an area is essential for many ecological and conservation studies. Faecal DNA is a potentially powerful method for identifying cryptic mammalian species. In New Zealand, 10 species of ungulate (Order: Artiodactyla) have established wild populations and are managed as pests because of their impacts on native ecosystems. However, identifying the ungulate species present within a management area based on pellet morphology is unreliable. We present a method that enables reliable identification of 10 ungulate species (red deer, sika deer, rusa deer, fallow deer, sambar deer, white-tailed deer, Himalayan tahr, Alpine chamois, feral sheep, and feral goat) from swabs of faecal pellets. A high resolution melting (HRM) assay, targeting a fragment of the 12S rRNA gene, was developed. Species-specific primers were designed and combined in a multiplex PCR resulting in fragments of different length and therefore different melting behaviour for each species. The method was developed using tissue from each of the 10 species, and was validated in blind trials. Our protocol enabled species to be determined for 94% of faecal pellet swabs collected during routine monitoring by the New Zealand Department of Conservation. Our HRM method enables high-throughput and cost-effective species identification from low DNA template samples, and could readily be adapted to discriminate other mammalian species from faecal DNA

The Zwicky Transient Facility: Surveys and Scheduler

We present a novel algorithm for scheduling the observations of time-domain imaging surveys. Our Integer Linear Programming approach optimizes an observing plan for an entire night by assigning targets to temporal blocks, enabling strict control of the number of exposures obtained per field and minimizing filter changes. A subsequent optimization step minimizes slew times between each observation. Our optimization metric self-consistently weights contributions from time-varying airmass, seeing, and sky brightness to maximize the transient discovery rate. We describe the implementation of this algorithm on the surveys of the Zwicky Transient Facility and present its on-sky performance.Comment: Published in PASP Focus Issue on the Zwicky Transient Facility (https://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1538-3873/ab0c2a). 13 Pages, 11 Figure

Roll-Back Eradication of Bovine Tuberculosis (TB) From Wildlife in New Zealand: Concepts, Evolving Approaches, and Progress

The New Zealand government and agricultural industries recently jointly adopted the goal of nationally eradicating bovine tuberculosis (TB) from livestock and wildlife reservoirs by 2055. Only Australia has eradicated TB from a wildlife maintenance host. Elsewhere the disease is often self-sustaining in a variety of wildlife hosts, usually making eradication an intractable problem. The New Zealand strategy for eradicating TB from wildlife is based on quantitative assessment using a Bayesian “Proof of Freedom” framework. This is used to assess the probability that TB has been locally eradicated from a given area. Here we describe the framework (the concepts, methods and tools used to assess TB freedom and how they are being applied and updated). We then summarize recent decision theory research aimed at optimizing the balance between the risk of falsely declaring areas free and the risk of overspending on disease management when the disease is already locally extinct. We explore potential new approaches for further optimizing the allocation of management resources, especially for places where existing methods are impractical or expensive, including using livestock as sentinels. We also describe how the progressive roll-back of locally eradicated areas scales up operationally and quantitatively to achieve and confirm eradication success over the entire country. Lastly, we review the progress made since the framework was first formally adopted in 2011. We conclude that eradication of TB from New Zealand is feasible, and that we are well on the way to achieving this outcome

PTF11iqb: Cool supergiant mass loss that bridges the gap between Type IIn and normal supernovae

PTF11iqb was initially classified as a TypeIIn event caught very early after explosion. It showed narrow Wolf-Rayet (WR) spectral features on day 2, but the narrow emission weakened quickly and the spectrum morphed to resemble those of Types II-L and II-P. At late times, Halpha emission exhibited a complex, multipeaked profile reminiscent of SN1998S. In terms of spectroscopic evolution, we find that PTF11iqb was a near twin of SN~1998S, although with weaker interaction with circumstellar material (CSM) at early times, and stronger CSM interaction at late times. We interpret the spectral changes as caused by early interaction with asymmetric CSM that is quickly (by day 20) enveloped by the expanding SN ejecta photosphere, but then revealed again after the end of the plateau when the photosphere recedes. The light curve can be matched with a simple model for weak CSM interaction added to the light curve of a normal SN~II-P. This plateau requires that the progenitor had an extended H envelope like a red supergiant, consistent with the slow progenitor wind speed indicated by narrow emission. The cool supergiant progenitor is significant because PTF11iqb showed WR features in its early spectrum --- meaning that the presence of such WR features in an early SN spectrum does not necessarily indicate a WR-like progenitor. [abridged] Overall, PTF11iqb bridges SNe~IIn with weaker pre-SN mass loss seen in SNe II-L and II-P, implying a continuum between these types.Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, submitted to MNRA

Forty-Year Analysis of Colonoscopic Surveillance Program for Neoplasia in Ulcerative Colitis: An Updated Overview

C.R.C. was funded by the Derek Willoughby Fund for Inflammatory Research. A.L.H. and T.A.G. were funded by Higher Education Funding Council of England