Bayesian history matching of complex infectious disease models using emulation: A tutorial and a case study on HIV in Uganda

Advances in scientific computing have allowed the development of complex models that are being routinely applied to problems in disease epidemiology, public health and decision making. The utility of these models depends in part on how well they can reproduce empirical data. However, fitting such models to real world data is greatly hindered both by large numbers of input and output parameters, and by long run times, such that many modelling studies lack a formal calibration methodology. We present a novel method that has the potential to improve the calibration of complex infectious disease models (hereafter called simulators). We present this in the form of a tutorial and a case study where we history match a dynamic, event-driven, individual-based stochastic HIV simulator, using extensive demographic, behavioural and epidemiological data available from Uganda. The tutorial describes history matching and emulation. History matching is an iterative procedure that reduces the simulator's input space by identifying and discarding areas that are unlikely to provide a good match to the empirical data. History matching relies on the computational efficiency of a Bayesian representation of the simulator, known as an emulator. Emulators mimic the simulator's behaviour, but are often several orders of magnitude faster to evaluate. In the case study, we use a 22 input simulator, fitting its 18 outputs simultaneously. After 9 iterations of history matching, a non-implausible region of the simulator input space was identified that was times smaller than the original input space. Simulator evaluations made within this region were found to have a 65% probability of fitting all 18 outputs. History matching and emulation are useful additions to the toolbox of infectious disease modellers. Further research is required to explicitly address the stochastic nature of the simulator as well as to account for correlations between outputs

Efficient History Matching of a High Dimensional Individual-Based HIV Transmission Model

History matching is a model (pre-)calibration method that has been applied to computer models from a wide range of scientific disciplines. In this work we apply history matching to an individual-based epidemiological model of HIV that has 96 input and 50 output parameters, a model of much larger scale than others that have been calibrated before using this or similar methods. Apart from demonstrating that history matching can analyze models of this complexity, a central contribution of this work is that the history match is carried out using linear regression, a statistical tool that is elementary and easier to implement than the Gaussian process--based emulators that have previously been used. Furthermore, we address a practical difficulty with history matching, namely, the sampling of tiny, nonimplausible spaces, by introducing a sampling algorithm adjusted to the specific needs of this method. The effectiveness and simplicity of the history matching method presented here shows that it is a useful tool for the calibration of computationally expensive, high dimensional, individual-based models

Choice of time horizon critical in estimating costs and effects of changes to HIV programmes

Background: Uganda changed its antiretroviral therapy guidelines in 2014, increasing the CD4 threshold for antiretroviral therapy initiation from 350 cells/µl to 500 cells/µl. We investigate what effect this change in policy is likely to have on HIV incidence, morbidity, and programme costs, and estimate the cost-effectiveness of the change over different time horizons. Methods: We used a complex individual-based model of HIV transmission and antiretroviral therapy scale-up in Uganda. 100 model fits were generated by fitting the model to 51 demographic, sexual behaviour, and epidemiological calibration targets, varying 96 input parameters, using history matching with model emulation. An additional 19 cost and disability weight parameters were varied during the analysis of the model results. For each model fit, the model was run to 2030, with and without the change in threshold to 500 cells/µl. Results: The change in threshold led to a 9.7% (90% plausible range: 4.3%-15.0%) reduction in incidence in 2030, and averted 278,944 (118,452-502,790) DALYs, at a total cost of $28M (-$142M to +$195M). The cost per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted fell over time, from$3238 (-$125 to +$29,969) in 2014 to $100 (-$499 to +$785) in 2030. The change in threshold was cost-effective (cost <3×Uganda's per capita GDP per DALY averted) by 2018, and highly cost-effective (cost <Uganda's per capita GDP per DALY averted) by 2022, for more than 50% of parameter sets. Conclusions: Model results suggest that the change in threshold is unlikely to have been cost-effective to date, but is likely to be highly cost-effective in Uganda by 2030. The time horizon needs to be chosen carefully when projecting intervention effects. Large amounts of uncertainty in our results demonstrates the need to comprehensively incorporate uncertainties in model parameterisation

Heterogeneity of HIV incidence : a comparative analysis between fishing communities and in a neighbouring rural general population, Uganda, and implications for HIV control

Objectives To describe HIV heterogeneity in rural Uganda using incidence data collected between January 2012 and December 2014 among fishing cohort (FC) and in an adjacent rural general population cohort (GPC). Methods In the FC, eligible HIV high-risk adults aged 18+ years were enrolled, followed and HIV tested every 3 months. Demographic and sexual behaviour data were also collected. The GPC, approximately 47 km away from the FC, was followed through annual surveys, and sociodemographic and behavioural data collected. A subset of GPC with comparable risk profiles to the FC was selected. We presented sociodemographic and risk profiles and also computed stratified HIV incidence. Cox regression was used to assess factors associated with HIV incidence. Results Overall HIV incidence was higher in the FC than in the ‘high-risk’ GPC, 6.04 and 0.56 per 100 person years at risk, respectively, with a rate ratio (RR) of 10.83 (95% CI 6.11 to 19.76). This was higher among those aged 18–24 years, unmarried and those with more than two sex partners in the past year, RR of 15.44, 22.99 and 19.29, respectively. In the FC, factors associated with high incidence in multivariate analysis were duration in the community and unprotected sex. The factors in the GPC were ethnicity, marital status and duration in the community. Conclusions We have observed a substantial heterogeneity in HIV incidence. The high incidence in fishing communities is contributing greatly to the overall HIV burden in Uganda, and thus urgent combination prevention efforts are needed towards national goal to reduce HIV epidemic

Increasing leadership capacity for HIV/AIDS programmes by strengthening public health epidemiology and management training in Zimbabwe

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Increased funding for global human immunodeficiency virus prevention and control in developing countries has created both a challenge and an opportunity for achieving long-term global health goals. This paper describes a programme in Zimbabwe aimed at responding more effectively to the HIV/AIDS epidemic by reinforcing a critical competence-based training institution and producing public health leaders.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The programme used new HIV/AIDS programme-specific funds to build on the assets of a local education institution to strengthen and expand the general public health leadership capacity in Zimbabwe, simultaneously ensuring that they were trained in HIV interventions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The programme increased both numbers of graduates and retention of faculty. The expanded HIV/AIDS curriculum was associated with a substantial increase in trainee projects related to HIV. The increased number of public health professionals has led to a number of practically trained persons working in public health leadership positions in the ministry, including in HIV/AIDS programmes.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Investment of a modest proportion of new HIV/AIDS resources in targeted public health leadership training programmes can assist in building capacity to lead and manage national HIV and other public health programmes.</p

Effect of Schistosoma mansoni infection and its treatment on antibody responses to measles catch-up immunisation in pre-school children: A randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Schistosoma infection is associated with immune modulation that can influence responses to non-schistosome antigens. Vaccine responses may be impaired in S. mansoni-infected individuals. We investigated effects of S. mansoni infection on responses to childhood measles catch-up immunisation and of praziquantel treatment on this outcome in a randomised trial. METHODOLOGY: The Immune Modulation and Childhood Immunisation (IMoChI) study was based in Entebbe, Uganda. Children aged 3-5 years (193 S. mansoni-infected and 61 uninfected) were enrolled. Infected children were randomised in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive praziquantel 2 weeks before, at time of, or 1 week after, measles catch-up immunisation. Plasma anti-measles IgG was measured at enrolment, 1 week and 24 weeks after measles immunisation. Primary outcomes were IgG levels and percentage of participants with levels considered protective against measles. RESULTS: Anti-measles IgG levels increased following immunisation, but at 1 week post-immunisation S. mansoni-infected, compared to uninfected, children had lower levels of anti-measles IgG (adjusted geometric mean ratio (aGMR) 0.4 [95% CI 0.2-0.7]) and the percentage with protective antibody levels was also lower (adjusted odds ratio 0.1 [0-0.9]). Among S. mansoni-infected children, anti-measles IgG one week post-immunisation was higher among those treated with praziquantel than among those who were not yet treated (treatment before immunisation, aGMR 2.3 [1.5-4.8]; treatment at immunisation aGMR 1.8 [1.1-3.5]). At 24 weeks post-immunisation, IgG levels did not differ between the trial groups, but tended to be lower among previously-infected children who were still S mansoni stool-positive than among those who became stool-negative. CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE: Our findings suggest that S. mansoni infection among pre-school children is associated with a reduced antibody response to catch-up measles immunisation, and that praziquantel treatment improves the response. S. mansoni infection may contribute to impaired vaccine responses in endemic populations; effective schistosomiasis control may be beneficial for vaccine efficacy. This should be further explored. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN87107592

Data and Image Transfer Using Mobile Phones to Strengthen Microscopy-Based Diagnostic Services in Low and Middle Income Country Laboratories

Background: The emerging market of mobile phone technology and its use in the health sector is rapidly expanding and connecting even the most remote areas of world. Distributing diagnostic images over the mobile network for knowledge sharing, feedback or quality control is a logical innovation. Objective: To determine the feasibility of using mobile phones for capturing microscopy images and transferring these to a central database for assessment, feedback and educational purposes. Methods: A feasibility study was carried out in Uganda. Images of microscopy samples were taken using a prototype connector that could fix a variety of mobile phones to a microscope. An Information Technology (IT) platform was set up for data transfer from a mobile phone to a website, including feedback by text messaging to the end user. Results: Clear images were captured using mobile phone cameras of 2 megapixels (MP) up to 5MP. Images were sent by mobile Internet to a website where they were visualized and feedback could be provided to the sender by means of text message. Conclusion: The process of capturing microscopy images on mobile phones, relaying them to a central review website and feeding back to the sender is feasible and of potential benefit in resource poor settings. Even though the system needs furthe

Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programs in sub-Saharan Africa from 2004 to 2010: need, the process, and prospects

As of 2010 sub-Saharan Africa had approximately 865 million inhabitants living with numerous public health challenges. Several public health initiatives [e.g., the United States (US) President&rsquo;s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and the US President&rsquo;s Malaria Initiative] have been very successful at reducing mortality from priority diseases. A competently trained public health workforce that can operate multi-disease surveillance and response systems is necessary to build upon and sustain these successes and to address other public health problems. Sub-Saharan Africa appears to have weathered the recent global economic downturn remarkably well and its increasing middle class may soon demand stronger public health systems to protect communities. The Epidemic Intelligence Service (EIS) program of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been the backbone of public health surveillance and response in the US during its 60 years of existence. EIS has been adapted internationally to create the Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) in several countries. In the 1990s CDC and the Rockefeller Foundation collaborated with the Uganda and Zimbabwe ministries of health and local universities to create 2-year Public Health Schools Without Walls (PHSWOWs) which were based on the FETP model. In 2004 the FETP model was further adapted to create the Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (FELTP) in Kenya to conduct joint competencybased training for field epidemiologists and public health laboratory scientists providing a master&rsquo;s degree to participants upon completion. The FELTP model has been implemented in several additional countries in sub-Saharan Africa. By the end of 2010 these 10 FELTPs and two PHSWOWs covered 613 million of the 865 million people in sub-Saharan Africa and had enrolled 743 public health professionals. We describe the process that we used to develop 10 FELTPs covering 15 countries in sub-Saharan Africa from 2004 to 2010 as a strategy to develop a locally trained public health workforce that can operate multi-disease surveillance and response systems.Key words: Field epidemiology, laboratory management, multi-disease surveillance and response systems, public health workforce capacity buildin

New Antenatal Model in Africa and India (NAMAI) study: implementation research to improve antenatal care using WHO recommendations

Background: In 2020, an estimated 287 000 women died globally from pregnancy‐related causes and 2 million babies were stillborn. Many of these outcomes can be prevented by quality healthcare during pregnancy and childbirth. Within the continuum of maternal health, antenatal care (ANC) is a key moment in terms of contact with the health system, yet it remains an underutilized platform. This paper describes the protocol for a study conducted in collaboration with Ministries of Health and country research partners that aims to employ implementation science to systematically introduce and test the applicability of the adapted WHO ANC package in selected sites across four countries. Methods: Study design is a mixed methods stepped-wedge cluster randomized implementation trial with a nested cohort component (in India and Burkina Faso). The intervention is composed of two layers: (i) the country- (or state)-specific ANC package, including evidence-based interventions to improve maternal and newborn health outcomes, and (ii) the co-interventions (or implementation strategies) to help delivery and uptake of the adapted ANC package. Using COM-B model, co-interventions support behaviour change among health workers and pregnant women by (1) training health workers on the adapted ANC package and ultrasound (except in India), (2) providing supplies, (3) conducting mentoring and supervision and (4) implementing community mobilization strategies. In Rwanda and Zambia, a fifth strategy includes a digital health intervention. Qualitative data will be gathered from health workers, women and their families, to gauge acceptability of the adapted ANC package and its components, as well as experience of care. The implementation of the adapted ANC package of interventions, and their related costs, will be documented to understand to what extent the co-interventions were performed as intended, allowing for iteration. Discussion: Results from this study aim to build the global evidence base on how to implement quality ANC across different settings and inform pathways to scale, which will ultimately lead to stronger health systems with better maternal and perinatal outcomes. On the basis of the study results, governments will be able to adopt and plan for national scale-up, aiming to improve ANC nationally. This evidence will inform global guidance. Trial registration number: ISRCTN, ISRCTN16610902. Registered 27 May 2022. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN16610902

Characterization of the Neutralizing Antibody Response in a Case of Genetically Linked HIV Superinfection.

This report describes the identification of a genetically confirmed linked heterosexual human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) superinfection (HIV-SI) in a woman with chronic HIV infection who acquired a second strain of the virus from her husband. Serum neutralizing antibody (NAb) responses against their homologous and heterologous viruses, including the superinfecting strain, in the woman and her husband were examined before and after onset of HIV-SI. The woman displayed a moderately potent and broad anti-HIV NAb response prior to superinfection but did not possess NAb activity against the superinfecting strain. This case highlights the unique potential of linked HIV-SI studies to examine natural protection from HIV infection