Implications for fire season management

UIDB/04209/2020 UIDP/04209/2020The lengthening of the fire season in Portugal has been understudied, although there is evidence of changes in recent decades. In this brief study, we focused on the annual cycles of fire activity and related meteorological fire danger, thus bypassing the problem of subjective definition of what should mark the beginning and end of the fire season. Based on the daily time series of burned areas and occurrences collected in mainland Portugal by state services from 1980 to 2018, we searched for significant changes in the monthly and daily relative in-year distributions. In particular, an exceedance date method was used to determine day-scale trends in the anticipation/prolongation of fire activity in the year. We found an unequivocal diminishing trend in the proportion of annual burned area that occurs in the summer months (July to September), which was offset by an increase in the fraction from January to June. Apparently, the month of March plays an important role in these changes that should be clarified in future analyses. The daily analysis shows a clear shift of the cumulative curves of burned area to the left, which suggests an in-year anticipation of fire activity. Considering the dates of exceedance of the 15% of annual burned area, the found linear trend implies an anticipation rate of 1.34 days per year. Next, we evaluated seasonal changes in fire weather through the annual cycle of cumulative DSR, computed from daily FWI values. The results show, on average, an earlier increase in DSR when comparing the latter second half of the period (2000-2018) with the first one former (1980-1999). This difference develops from April to the end of September. Interestingly, a closer look shows a first increase in the gap as early as March, which disappears in April before steadily increasing again. Finally, we suggested that up-to-date knowledge of the interannual and interdecadal changes in the seasonality of both wildfires and fire weather is a decisive component, but not the only one, of a comprehensive and complex management of the fire season. A good illustration of this complexity is the fact that the annual definition of the fire season window necessarily affects the annual fire cycle by conditioning the ignition calendar.publishersversionpublishe

Is the Wildfire Season Really Longer?

UIDB/04209/2020 UIDP/04209/2020The length of the fire season has not garnered much attention within the broad field of meteorological research on fire regime change. Fire weather research on the Iberian Peninsula is no exception in this case; there is no solid understanding on fire season lengthening in Portugal, although recent decades do suggest ongoing transitions. Based on a complete record of fire occurrence and burned area between 1980 and 2018, we first searched for consistent trends in the monthly distribution of fire activity. To determine day-scale changes, an exceedance date method based on annual cumulative burned area was developed. Results show an early onset of fire activity in a range of 23–50 days and no significant extension into autumn, suggesting that existing projections of the lengthening of the fire season in Portugal over the present century have been already achieved. Fire weather results show a trend in the cumulative Daily Severity Rating (DSR), with the last two decades (2000–2018) displaying an early build-up of meteorological fire danger in late spring and early summer. The detailed spatio-temporal analysis based on the daily Fire Weather Index (FWI) shows that June stands out with the largest increase (year-round) in days per month with an FWI above 38.3, the threshold above which fire conditions make suppression uncertain. This aggravated fire weather is likely sustaining early fire activity, thus contributing to a longer critical fire season.publishersversionpublishe

Automatic Forecasts Algorithms

Ponencia presentada en: VI Simposio Nacional de Predicción, celebrado en los servicios centrales de AEMET, en Madrid, del 17 al 19 de septiembre de 2018.The need for forecasts at an increasingly higher number of locations and time frequency requires a fully automated forecast system. Due to model biases, statistical post-processing is required to improve the quality of the forecasts in variables such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. The automatic forecasting algorithms developed at IPMA provide forecasts up to 10 days and use ECMWF and AROME data

Fire danger harmonization based on the fire weather index for transboundary events between Portugal and Spain

Portugal and Spain have a cross-border cooperation protocol on wildfires response for a buffer strip of 25 km for each side of the border. In spite of the success of this collaboration, there are issues to be improved, since Portuguese and Spanish authorities use different methodologies to assess the daily fire danger. A methodology to harmonize fire danger and its interpretation by the Portuguese and Spanish Civil protection authorities in the transboundary buffer strip area is hereby presented. The fire danger index used is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), which requires input from meteorological data and gives an indication of fire intensity. The fire danger class is an important decision support tool for preventing and fighting wildfires. Since the meaning of FWI values change from region-to-region according to its specific characteristics, a calibration process was performed based on statistical data of the daily FWI values, the number of fires and burned area between 2005 and 2013. The results of the FWI calibration and harmonization of the data for the five danger classes minimizes the fire danger discrepancies across the border. This methodology has the potential to be reproduced in other areas

Funcionalidade e qualidade de vida em idosos submetidos a artroplastia total do joelho

Objective: To evaluate perception of knee functionality and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in elderly patients submitted to total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods: 40 patients were studied at two moments of evaluation: in the preoperative period and eight weeks after surgery. HRQL was assessed using the MOS-SF-36 v2 (Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey) and KOOS (Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score). Results: Sample (71.6 ± 8.1 years), mostly female (62.5%). The SF-36 v2 MOS results show an improvement in all dimensions of physical health in the second evaluation (p <0.05). In the field of mental health there has also been improvement in all dimensions, except vitality. The functionality of the knee improved in the subscales: symptoms (p = 0.015), pain (p <0.001) and quality of life (p <0.001). Conclusion: Patients evaluated eight weeks after TKA showed improvements in self-perceived health, quality of life, physical performance and pain.Objetivo: Evaluar la percepción de la funcionalidad de la rodilla y la calidad de vida relacionada con la salud (CVRS) en ancianos sometidos a artroplastia total de rodilla (ATR). Métodos: Se estudiaron 40 pacientes en dos momentos de evaluación: en el preoperatorio y ocho semanas después de la cirugía. La CVRS se evaluó utilizando el MOS-SF-36 v2 (Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey) y la percepción de la funcionalidad de la rodilla a través del KOOS (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score). Resultados: Muestra (71,6 ± 8,1 años) en su mayoría mujeres (62,5%). Los resultados del MOS SF-36 v2 sugieren mejoras en todas las dimensiones de la salud física en la segunda evaluación (p <0.05). En la salud mental también ha habido mejoras en todas las dimensiones, excepto la vitalidad. La funcionalidad de la rodilla mejoró en las subescalas: síntomas (p = 0.015), dolor (p <0.001) y calidad de vida (p <0.001). Conclusión: Los pacientes evaluados ocho semanas después de ATR revelaron mejoras en la salud percibida, la calidad de vida, el rendimiento físico y el dolor.Objetivo: Avaliar a perceção da funcionalidade do joelho e a qualidade de vida relacionada à saúde (QVRS) em idosos submetidos a artroplastia total do joelho (ATJ). Métodos: Estudaram-se 40 pacientes em dois momentos de avaliação: no pré-operatório e oito semanas após cirurgia. A QVRS foi avaliada através do MOS SF-36 v2 (Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey) e a perceção da funcionalidade do joelho através do KOOS (Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score). Resultados: Amostra (71,6±8,1 anos) maioritariamente feminina (62,5%). Os resultados do MOS SF-36 v2 revelam uma melhoria em todas as dimensões da saúde física na segunda avaliação (p <0,05). No domínio da saúde mental também houve melhoria em todas as dimensões, à exceção da vitalidade. A funcionalidade do joelho melhorou nas subescalas: sintomas (p=0,015), dor (p <0,001) e qualidade de vida (p <0,001). Conclusão: Pacientes avaliados oito semanas após ATJ revelaram melhorias na saúde autopercebida, qualidade de vida, desempenho físico e dor

Estado funcional y nutricional en pacientes ancianos admitidos en un servicio de cirugía general

Enquadramento: O comprometimento funcional e a desnutrição associada à doença aumentam o risco de resultados adversos em saúde. Objetivo: Correlacionar a capacidade funcional com o estado nutricional em pacientes com mais de 65 anos admitidos num serviço de cirurgia. Metodologia: Estudo descritivo e correlacional com abordagem quantitativa, que avaliou, por amostragem de conveniência e protocolo de investigação aprovado por Comissão de Ética, 89 idosos (78,0 ± 6,9 anos) hospitalizados num serviço de cirurgia. A funcionalidade foi avaliada pelo Índice de Barthel (IB) e Escala Lawton e Brody (ELB) e o estado nutricional pelo Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form (MNA-SF). Resultados: A prevalência de desnutrição foi de 16,9%. As pontuações obtidas no IB e ELB correlacionaram-se de forma positiva com os valores do MNA-SF (R = 0,400; p < 0,01 vs R = 0,267; p < 0,05). Pacientes mais idosos apresentavam menores pontuações no IB, ELB e MNA-SF (p < 0,01). Quanto maior a força de preensão da mão dominante, melhor o estado funcional e nutricional (p < 0,01). Conclusão: A relação encontrada entre funcionalidade e estado nutricional recomenda a triagem destas condições no paciente cirúrgico.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Typical Weather Conditions of Large Wildfires in Portugal (1980–2018)

UIDB/04209/2020 UIDP/04209/2020publishersversionpublishe

Validação da versão portuguesa da Social-Emotional Expertise Scale

Objective: Given the relevance of new instruments for assessing socio-emotional skills validated for the Portuguese population, the present study aimed to translate and validate the Social-Emotional Expertise (SEE) scale. The factor structure of the SEE, reliability, test-retest reliability and the association with other theoretically relevant variables were analyzed. Methods: Participants completed a set of self-report measures assessing social-emotional skills, emotional intelligence, subjective happiness, and social interaction anxiety. The SEE validation study was conducted on two independent samples (N = 466) aged between 18–64 (27.33 ± 11.52). The SEE factor structure, reliability, and validity were analyzed in Sample 1 (n = 258). Additionally, the plausibility of the hierarchical scale model represented by a global score with two second-order factors was tested in Sample 2 (n = 208). Results: The SEE showed a two-factor structure: (1) Adaptability and (2) Expressiveness factors. Confirmatory factor analysis of the second-order hierarchical model revealed a poor fit to the data. The SEE showed good reliability for the total score and factors and adequate test-retest reliability. As measured by the SEE, social-emotional skills revealed positive correlations with emotional intelligence and subjective happiness and negative an association with social interaction anxiety. No significant gender differences were found, and age and years of education were not significantly associated with socio-emotional skills, as assessed by the SEE. Conclusions: The Social-Emotional Expertise scale proved to be a valid and reliable instrument to assess socio-emotional skills in adults in the Portuguese population, being useful for research and intervention practices in the educational and clinical context.Objetivo: Para fazer face à necessidade de novos instrumentos de avaliação de competências socioemocionais validados para a população portuguesa, o presente estudo teve como objetivo traduzir e validar a escala Social-Emotional Expertise (SEE). Foram analisadas a estrutura fatorial da SEE, fidedignidade, estabilidade temporal e a associação com outras variáveis teoricamente relevantes. Métodos: Duas amostras independentes de participantes (N = 466), entre os 18 e os 64 anos (27,33 ± 11,52) foram utilizadas para validar a SEE. Na Amostra 1 (n = 258) foi analisada a estrutura fatorial da SEE, as propriedades psicométricas e a sua associação com outros construtos. Na Amostra 2 (n = 208) foi testada a plausibilidade do modelo hierárquico da escala representado por uma pontuação global com dois fatores. Os participantes preencheram um protocolo de questionários de autorresposta que avaliaram as competências socioemocionais, a inteligência emocional, a felicidade subjetiva e a ansiedade de interação social. Resultados: A SEE apresentou uma estrutura bifatorial composta pelos fatores Adaptabilidade e Expressividade. A análise fatorial confirmatória do modelo hierárquico de segunda ordem indicou um ajustamento sofrível. A SEE revelou uma boa consistência interna para o total e respetivos fatores e uma adequada fidedignidade teste-reteste. As competências socioemocionais (SEE) revelaram correlações positivas com a inteligência emocional e com a felicidade subjetiva, e associações negativas com a ansiedade de interação social. Não foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre os sexos, e a idade e escolaridade não se mostraram associadas às competências socioemocionais avaliadas pela SEE. Conclusões: A escala Social-Emotional Expertise mostrou ser um instrumento válido e fidedigno para avaliar as competências socioemocionais em adultos na população Portuguesa, sendo de utilidade para a investigação e práticas de intervenção no contexto educativo e clínico

Contributions to forecasting and preparedness

UIDB/04209/2020 UIDP/04209/2020 GFC/0109/2017Available research has extensively examined the spatiotemporal patterns of fire-weather regime in Portugal, but a comprehensive climatology of extreme wildfires is still under development. This study calls for different strategies and scales of analysis aiming to describe the relationships between medium and low troposphere weather conditions and severe fire behaviour in mainland Portugal, between 1980 and 2018. In particular, critical fire-weather patterns and thresholds that can contribute to operational and forecasting know-how in short and medium time ranges are presented. We updated the general trends in the fire regime with a new, longer daily burned area series and developed a method that identifies Extreme Wildfire Periods (EWP) that form the basis for climate analysis. Synoptic analysis using Circulation Weather Types (CWT) showed that the northeasterly and easterly directional flows are significantly associated with EWP and produce the most severe fire-weather conditions. The four main CWT related to extreme fire are driven from anticyclones over the eastern Atlantic between the Azores and the British Isles. However, severe situations can also be regulated by CWT with marginal presence in both summer and EWP: low systems located to the west and northwest of Iberia carrying air masses from the south quadrant are related to catastrophic events. Regarding the antecedent climate, the results indicate that the coincident meteorological drought, whether weak or intense, is a necessary but not sufficient condition for the development of an EWP. An increasing relevance of water stress for shorter intervals preceding EWP, in the order of days and weeks, is apparent. Following these results, fine dead fuel moisture thresholds related to transitions in fire behaviour in Portuguese landscapes are computed using a promising predictive moisture content model. Finally, the different methods used are summoned for the detailed analysis of an EWP starting under unusual synoptic circulation.publishersversionpublishe

Triagem e ativação da via verde do Acidente Vascular Cerebral: dificuldades sentidas pelos enfermeiros

Background: The triage process contributes to early stroke treatment, reducing mortality and disability. Objective: To analyze nurses' difficulties in triage and activating the Code Stroke protocol. Method: Descriptive and cross-sectional study. The data were collected, by convenience sampling, in an emergency medical-surgical service through a questionnaire. Results: The sample included 21 nurses (39.7±7.4 years), mostly women (71.4%). In terms of professional experience, the working time in emergency department was 9.5 (±6.2 years).The verbal and physical violence of patients and family members was the most mentioned difficulty regarding triage. About 29% partially and 19% fully agree that inadequate information about two symptoms at the time of onset constitutes a difficulty in activating the Code Stroke. Conclusion: Triage and the Stroke Code protocol are considered facilitators of care, with sporadic difficulties in some phases of the process.Marco contextual: El proceso de triaje contribuye al tratamiento precoz del ictus, reduciendo la mortalidad y la discapacidad. Objetivo: Analizar las dificultades en el triaje y activación del protocolo de Código Ictus. Método: Estudio descriptivo y transversal. Los datos fueron recolectados a través de cuestionario, por muestreo de conveniencia, en un servicio de emergencia médico-quirúrgico. Resultados: La muestra incluyó 21 profesionales de enfermería (39,7±7,4 años), la mayoría mujeres (71,4%). El tiempo promedio de trabajo en urgencias fue de 9,5 (±6,2 años).La violencia verbal y física de pacientes y familiares fue la dificultad más mencionada, en cuanto al triaje. Alrededor del 29% coincide parcial y el 19% totalmente en que la información inadecuada sobre el momento de inicio de los síntomas constituye una dificultad para activar el Código Ictus. Conclusión: El triaje y el protocolo Código Ictus se consideran facilitadores asistenciales, con dificultades esporádicas en algunas fases del proceso.Enquadramento: O processo de triagem contribui para o tratamento precoce do Acidente Vascular Cerebral (AVC) reduzindo a mortalidade e a incapacidade. Objetivo: Analisar as dificuldades dos enfermeiros na realização da triagem e ativação da via verde do AVC. Método: Estudo descritivo e transversal. Os dados foram colhidos através de questionário, por amostragem de conveniência, num serviço de urgência médico-cirúrgica. Resultados: A amostra incluiu 21 enfermeiros (39,7±7,4 anos), a maioria mulheres (71,4%). O tempo médio de serviço em urgência era de 9,5 (±6,2 anos).A violência verbal e física de utentes ou familiares foi a dificuldade mais referida relativamente à triagem. Cerca de 29% concordam parcial e 19% totalmente que a informação inadequada sobre a hora de início dos sintomas constitui uma dificuldade aquando da ativação da via verde do AVC. Conclusão: A triagem e o protocolo da via verde são vistos como facilitadores na assistência ao AVC, com dificuldades pontuais em algumas fases do processo