Monthly sunspot number time series analysis and its modeling through autoregressive artificial neural network

This study reports a statistical analysis of monthly sunspot number time series and observes non homogeneity and asymmetry within it. Using Mann-Kendall test a linear trend is revealed. After identifying stationarity within the time series we generate autoregressive AR(p) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA(p,q)). Based on minimization of AIC we find 3 and 1 as the best values of p and q respectively. In the next phase, autoregressive neural network (AR-NN(3)) is generated by training a generalized feedforward neural network (GFNN). Assessing the model performances by means of Willmott's index of second order and coefficient of determination, the performance of AR-NN(3) is identified to be better than AR(3) and ARMA(3,1).Comment: 17 pages, 4 figure

Extensive release of methane from Arctic seabed west of Svalbard during summer 2014 does not influence the atmosphere

© 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We find that summer methane (CH4) release from seabed sediments west of Svalbard substantially increases CH4 concentrations in the ocean but has limited influence on the atmospheric CH4 levels. Our conclusion stems from complementary measurements at the seafloor, in the ocean, and in the atmosphere from land-based, ship and aircraft platforms during a summer campaign in 2014. We detected high concentrations of dissolved CH4 in the ocean above the seafloor with a sharp decrease above the pycnocline. Model approaches taking potential CH4 emissions from both dissolved and bubble-released CH4 from a larger region into account reveal a maximum flux compatible with the observed atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios of 2.4-3.8 nmol m-2 s-1. This is too low to have an impact on the atmospheric summer CH4 budget in the year 2014. Long-term ocean observatories may shed light on the complex variations of Arctic CH4 cycles throughout the year.The project MOCA- Methane Emissions from the Arctic OCean to the Atmosphere: Present and Future Climate Effects is funded by the Research Council of Norway, grant no.225814 CAGE – Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate, Environment and Climate research work was supported by the Research Council of Norway through its Centres of Excellence funding scheme grant no. 223259. Nordic Center of Excellence eSTICC (eScience Tool for Investigating Climate Change in northern high latitudes) funded by Nordforsk, grant no. 57001

Changes in meltwater chemistry over a 20-year period following a thermal regime switch from polythermal to cold-based glaciation at Austre Broggerbreen, Svalbard

Our long-term study gives a rare insight into meltwater hydrochemistry following the transition of Austre Brøggerbreen from polythermal to cold-based glaciation and its continued retreat. We find that the processes responsible for ion acquisition did not change throughout the period of records but became more productive. Two regimes before and after July/August 2000 were identified from changes in solute concentrations and pH. They resulted from increased chemical weathering occurring in ice-marginal and proglacial environments that have become progressively exposed by glacier retreat. Carbonate carbonation nearly doubled between 2000 and 2010, whilst increases in the weathering of silicate minerals were also marked. In addition, the end of ablation season chemistry was characterized by reactions in long residence time flow paths like those in subglacial environments, in spite of their absence in the watershed. Furthermore, the retreat of the glacier caused the sudden re-routing of meltwaters through its immediate forefield during 2009, which more than doubled crustal ion yields in this particular year and influenced chemical weathering in 2010 regardless of a low water flux. Such a “flush” of crustally derived ions can be meaningful for downstream terrestrial and marine ecosystems. We therefore find that, during glacier retreat, the recently exposed forefield is the most chemically active part of the watershed, making high rates of weathering possible, even when ice losses have caused a switch to cold-based conditions with no delayed subglacial drainage flowpaths. In addition, the drainage system reorganization events result in significant pCO2 depletion in an otherwise high pCO2 system

The effect of radiation screens on Nordic time series of mean temperature

A short survey of the historical development of temperature radiation screens is given based upon research in the archives of the Nordic meteorological institutes. In the middle of the nineteenth century most thermometer stands were open shelters, free-standing or fastened to a window or wall. Most of these were soon replaced by wall or window screens, i.e. small wooden or metal cages. Large free-standing screens were also introduced in the nineteenth century, but it took to the 1980s before they had replaced the wall screens completely in all Nordic countries. During recent years, small cylindrical screens suitable for automatic weather stations have been introduced. At some stations they have replaced the ordinary free-standing screen as part of a gradual move towards automation. The first free-standing screens used in the Nordic countries were single louvred. They were later improved by double louvres. Compared with observations from ventilated thermometers the monthly mean temperatures in the single louvred screens were 0.2-0.4°C higher during May-August, whereas in the double louvred screens the temperatures were unbiased. Unless the series are adjusted, this improvement may lead to inhomogeneities in long climatic time series. The change from wall screen to free-standing screen also involved a relocation from the microclimatic influence of a house to a location free from obstacles. Tests to evaluate the effect of relocation by parallel measurements yielded variable results. However, the bulk of the tests showed no effect of the relocation in winter, whereas in summer the wall screen tended to be slightly warmer (0.0-0.3°C) than the double louvred screen. At two Norwegian sites situated on steep valley slopes, the wall screen was ca. 0.5°C colder in midwinter. The free-standing Swedish shelter, which was used at some stations up to 1960, seems to have been overheated in spring and summer (maximum overheating of about 0.4°C in early summer). The new screen for automatic sensors appears to be unbiased compared with the ordinary free-standing screen concerning monthly mean temperature