Sovereign bonds in developing countries : drivers of issuance and spreads

Abstract In the last decade there has been a new wave of sovereign bond issuances in Africa. What determines the ability of developing countries to issue bonds in international capital and what explains the spreads on these bonds? This paper examines these questions using a dataset that includes 105 developing countries during the period 1995–2014. We find that a country is more likely to issue a bond when, in comparison with non-issuing peers, it is larger in economic size, has higher per capita GDP, a lower public debt, and a more effective government. Spreads on sovereign bonds are lower for countries with strong external and fiscal positions, as well as robust economic growth and government effectiveness. We also find that primary spreads for the average Sub-Saharan African issuer are higher than in other regions. With regard to global factors, our results confirm the existing evidence that issuances are more likely during periods of global liquidity and high commodity prices, especially for Sub-Saharan African countries, and spreads are higher in periods of higher market volatility

Designing a mimic of Ashesi Courseware that Integrates peer learning techniques

Applied project submitted to the Department of Computer Science, Ashesi University College, in partial fulfillment of Bachelor of Science degree in Computer Science, April 2016This projects seeks to expand the usage of peer learning in tertiary educational institutions. It focuses on designing and a developing a simplified mimic of the Ashesi Courseware that shall make use of peer learning techniques. This is done by granting both lecturers and students the permission to share coursework materials they feel relevant to a given course. It also includes extending its uses to allowing students to give feedback on the usefulness of materials shared in understanding class concepts and the recommendation of materials to students through the rating of uploaded materials. The result is a sharing application that has the potential to be a vibrant information sharing platform.Ashesi University Colleg

Hepatitis B testing and treatment in HIV patients in The Gambia - compliance with international guidelines and clinical outcomes

Background Compliance with WHO guidelines on HBV screening and treatment in HIV-coinfected patients is often challenging in resource limited countries and has been poorly assessed in sub-Saharan Africa. Methods Between 2015 and 2016, we assessed physician’s compliance with WHO guidelines on HIV-HBV coinfection in the largest HIV clinic in The Gambia, and the hepatic outcomes in HIV-HBV coinfected patients as compared to randomly selected HIV-monoinfected controls. Results 870 HIV-infected patients regularly seen in this clinic agreed to participate in our study. Only 187 (21.5%, 95% CI 18.8–24.3) had previously been screened for HBsAg, 23 (12.3%, 95% CI 8.0–17.9) were positive of whom none had liver assessment and only 6 (26.1%) had received Tenofovir. Our HBV testing intervention was accepted by all participants and found 94/870 (10.8%, 95% CI 8.8–13.1) positive, 78 of whom underwent full liver assessment along with 40 HBsAg-negative controls. At the time of liver assessment, 61/78 (78.2%) HIV-HBV coinfected patients received ART with 7 (11.5%) on Tenofovir and 54 (88.5%) on Lamivudine alone. HIV-HBV coinfected patients had higher APRI score compared to controls (0.58 vs 0.42, p = 0.002). HBV DNA was detectable in 52/53 (98.1%) coinfected patients with 14/53 (26.4%) having HBV DNA >20,000 IU/L. 10/12 (83.3%) had at least one detectable 3TC-associated HBV resistance, which tended to be associated with increase in liver fibrosis after adjusting for age and sex (p = 0.05). Conclusions Compliance with HBV testing and treatment guidelines is poor in this Gambian HIV programme putting coinfected patients at risk of liver complications. However, the excellent uptake of HBV screening and linkage to care in our study suggests feasible improvements

Hepatitis B: The view from West Africa

The Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa (PROLIFICA) study began in 2011 in The Gambia, Sénégal and Nigeria. The study aims to reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in West Africa through the suppression of the Hepatitis B virus (HBV). The biological samples collected allow for the detection of novel liver cancer biomarkers in the hope of improving the diagnostic ability of early disease states. The PROLIFICA platform hopes to improve cancer diagnostics whilst simultaneously providing the training, skills and infrastructure necessary to develop the quality of liver cancer care in West Africa

Acceptability and feasibility of a screen-and-treat programme for hepatitis B virus infection in The Gambia: the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa (PROLIFICA) study

Background Despite the introduction of immunisation for hepatitis B virus (HBV) in the 1990s, HBV-related morbidity and mortality remain high in sub-Saharan Africa. Identifi cation and treatment of asymptomatic people with chronic HBV infection should reduce the disease burden. We therefore assessed the feasibility of a screen-and-treat programme for HBV infection in The Gambia, west Africa, and estimated the proportion of HBV-infected people who had signifi cant liver disease in need of treatment. Methods Between Dec 7, 2011, and Jan 24, 2014, individuals living in randomly selected communities in western Gambia were off ered hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening via a point-of-care test. The test was also off ered to potential blood donors attending the central hospital in the capital, Banjul. HBsAg-positive individuals were invited for a comprehensive liver assessment and were off ered treatment according to international guidelines. We defi ned linkage to care as visiting the liver clinic at least once. Eligibility for treatment was judged in accordance with the 2012 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. Findings HBsAg screening was accepted by 5980 (weighted estimate 68·9%, 95% CI 65·0–72·4) of 8170 adults from 27 rural and 27 urban communities and 5559 (81·4%, 80·4–82·3) of 6832 blood donors. HBsAg was detected in 495 (8·8%, 7·9–9·7) individuals in communities and 721 (13·0%, 12·1–13·9) blood donors. Prevalence was higher in men (239 [10·5%, 8·9–12·1] of 2328 men vs 256 [7·6%, 6·5–8·7] of 3652 women; p=0·004) and middle-aged participants. Linkage to care was high in the communities, with 402 (81·3%) of 495 HBsAg-positive individuals attending the clinic. However, only 300 (41·6%) of 721 HBsAg-positive people screened at the blood bank linked into care. Of those who attended the clinic, 18 (4·4%, 2·5–7·7) patients from the communities and 29 (9·7%, 6·8–13·6) from the blood bank were eligible for treatment. Male sex was strongly associated with treatment eligibility (odds ratio 4·35, 1·50–12·58; p=0·007). Interpretation HBV infection remains highly prevalent in The Gambia. The high coverage of community-based screening, good linkage into care, and the small proportion of HBsAg carriers who need treatment suggest that largescale screening and treatment programmes are feasible in sub-Saharan Africa

Interleukin-10 and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor II are potential biomarkers of Plasmodium falciparum infections in pregnant women: a case-control study from Nanoro, Burkina Faso

Background: Diagnosis of malaria in pregnancy is problematic due to the low sensitivity of conventional diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test and microscopy), which is exacerbated due to low peripheral parasite densities, and lack of clinical symptoms. In this study, six potential biomarkers to support malaria diagnosis in pregnancy were evaluated.Methods: Blood samples were collected from pregnant women at antenatal clinic visits and at delivery. Microscopy and real-time PCR were performed for malaria diagnosis and biomarker analyses were performed by ELISA (interleukin 10, IL-10; tumor necrosis factor-α, TNF-α; soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor II, sTNF-RII; soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, sFlt-1; leptin and apolipoprotein B, Apo-B). A placental biopsy was collected at delivery to determine placental malaria.Results: IL-10 and sTNF-RII were significantly higher at all time-points in malaria-infected women (p < 0.001). Both markers were also positively associated with parasite density (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003 for IL-10 and sTNF-RII respectively). IL-10 levels at delivery, but not during pregnancy, were negatively associated with birth weight. A prediction model was created using IL-10 and sTNF-RII cut-off points. For primigravidae the model had a sensitivity of 88.9% (95%CI 45.7–98.7%) and specificity of 83.3% (95% CI 57.1–94.9%) for diagnosing malaria during pregnancy. For secundi- and multigravidae the sensitivity (81.8% and 56.5% respectively) was lower, while specificity (100.0% and 94.3% respectively) was relatively high. Sub-microscopic infections were detected in 2 out of 3 secundi- and 5 out of 12 multigravidae.Conclusions: The combination of biomarkers IL-10 and sTNF-RII have the potential to support malaria diagnosis in pregnancy. Additional markers may be needed to increase sensitivity and specificity, this is of particular importance in populations with sub-microscopic infections or in whom other inflammatory diseases are prevalent

Interleukin-10 and soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor II are potential biomarkers of Plasmodium falciparum infections in pregnant women: a case-control study from Nanoro, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Diagnosis of malaria in pregnancy is problematic due to the low sensitivity of conventional diagnostic tests (rapid diagnostic test and microscopy), which is exacerbated due to low peripheral parasite densities, and lack of clinical symptoms. In this study, six potential biomarkers to support malaria diagnosis in pregnancy were evaluated. METHODS: Blood samples were collected from pregnant women at antenatal clinic visits and at delivery. Microscopy and real-time PCR were performed for malaria diagnosis and biomarker analyses were performed by ELISA (interleukin 10, IL-10; tumor necrosis factor-α, TNF-α; soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor II, sTNF-RII; soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1, sFlt-1; leptin and apolipoprotein B, Apo-B). A placental biopsy was collected at delivery to determine placental malaria. RESULTS: IL-10 and sTNF-RII were significantly higher at all time-points in malaria-infected women (p < 0.001). Both markers were also positively associated with parasite density (p < 0.001 and p = 0.003 for IL-10 and sTNF-RII respectively). IL-10 levels at delivery, but not during pregnancy, were negatively associated with birth weight. A prediction model was created using IL-10 and sTNF-RII cut-off points. For primigravidae the model had a sensitivity of 88.9% (95%CI 45.7-98.7%) and specificity of 83.3% (95% CI 57.1-94.9%) for diagnosing malaria during pregnancy. For secundi- and multigravidae the sensitivity (81.8% and 56.5% respectively) was lower, while specificity (100.0% and 94.3% respectively) was relatively high. Sub-microscopic infections were detected in 2 out of 3 secundi- and 5 out of 12 multigravidae. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of biomarkers IL-10 and sTNF-RII have the potential to support malaria diagnosis in pregnancy. Additional markers may be needed to increase sensitivity and specificity, this is of particular importance in populations with sub-microscopic infections or in whom other inflammatory diseases are prevalent

HTLV-1 in rural Guinea-Bissau: prevalence, incidence and a continued association with HIV between 1990 and 2007

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>HTLV-1 is endemic in Guinea-Bissau, and the highest prevalence in the adult population (5.2%) was observed in a rural area, Caió, in 1990. HIV-1 and HIV-2 are both prevalent in this area as well. Cross-sectional associations have been reported for HTLV-1 with HIV infection, but the trends in prevalence of HTLV-1 and HIV associations are largely unknown, especially in Sub Saharan Africa. In the current study, data from three cross-sectional community surveys performed in 1990, 1997 and 2007, were used to assess changes in HTLV-1 prevalence, incidence and its associations with HIV-1 and HIV-2 and potential risk factors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>HTLV-1 prevalence was 5.2% in 1990, 5.9% in 1997 and 4.6% in 2007. Prevalence was higher among women than men in all 3 surveys and increased with age. The Odds Ratio (OR) of being infected with HTLV-1 was significantly higher for HIV positive subjects in all surveys after adjustment for potential confounding factors. The risk of HTLV-1 infection was higher in subjects with an HTLV-1 positive mother versus an uninfected mother (OR 4.6, CI 2.6-8.0). The HTLV-1 incidence was stable between 1990-1997 (Incidence Rate (IR) 1.8/1,000 pyo) and 1997-2007 (IR 1.6/1,000 pyo) (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) 0.9, CI 0.4-1.7). The incidence of HTLV-1 among HIV-positive individuals was higher compared to HIV negative individuals (IRR 2.5, CI 1.0-6.2), while the HIV incidence did not differ by HTLV-1 status (IRR 1.2, CI 0.5-2.7).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>To our knowledge, this is the largest community based study that has reported on HTLV-1 prevalence and associations with HIV. HTLV-1 is endemic in this rural community in West Africa with a stable incidence and a high prevalence. The prevalence increases with age and is higher in women than men. HTLV-1 infection is associated with HIV infection, and longitudinal data indicate HIV infection may be a risk factor for acquiring HTLV-1, but not vice versa. Mother to child transmission is likely to contribute to the epidemic.</p

Monitoring anti-tuberculosis treatment response using analysis of whole blood Mycobacterium tuberculosis specific T cell activation and functional markers

Background: Blood-based biomarkers have been proposed as an alternative to current sputum-based treatment monitoring methods in active tuberculosis (ATB). The aim of this study was to validate previously described phenotypic, activation, and cytokine markers of treatment response in a West African cohort. Methods: Whole blood immune responses to Mycobacterium tuberculosis ESAT-6/CFP-10 (EC) and purified protein derivative (PPD) were measured in twenty adults at baseline and after 2 months of standard TB treatment. Patients were classified as fast or slow responders based on a negative or positive sputum culture result at 2 months, respectively. Cellular expression of activation markers (CD38, HLA-DR), memory markers (CD27), and functional intracellular cytokine and proliferation (IFN-γ, Ki-67, TNF-α) markers were measured using multi-color flow cytometry. Results: There was a significant increase in the proportion of CD4+CD27+ cells expressing CD38 and HLA-DR following EC stimulation at 2 months compared to baseline (p = 0.0328 and p = 0.0400, respectively). Following PPD stimulation, slow treatment responders had a significantly higher proportion of CD8+CD27–IFN-γ+ (p = 0.0105) and CD4+CD27+HLA-DR+CD38+ (p = 0.0077) T cells than fast responders at baseline. Receiver operating curve analysis of these subsets resulted in 80% sensitivity and 70 and 100% specificity, respectively (AUC of 0.82, p = 0.0156 and 0.84, p = 0.0102). Conclusion: Our pilot data show reductions in expression of T cell activation markers were seen with treatment, but this was not associated with fast or slow sputum conversion at 2 months. However, baseline proportions of activated T cell subsets are potentially predictive of the subsequent speed of response to treatment