Wormholes from averaging over states

An important question about black holes is to what extent a typical pure state differs from the ensemble average. We show that this question can be answered within semiclassical gravity. We focus on the quantum deviation, which measures the fluctuations in the expectation value of an operator in an ensemble of pure states. For a large class of ensembles and observables, these fluctuations are calculated by a correlation function in the eternal black hole background, which can be reliably calculated within semi-classical gravity. This implements the idea of [arXiv:2002.02971] that wormholes can arise from averages over states rather than theories. As an application, we calculate the size of the long-time correlation function〈A(t)A(0).</p

The statistical importance of a study for a network meta-analysis estimate.

BACKGROUND In pairwise meta-analysis, the contribution of each study to the pooled estimate is given by its weight, which is based on the inverse variance of the estimate from that study. For network meta-analysis (NMA), the contribution of direct (and indirect) evidence is easily obtained from the diagonal elements of a hat matrix. It is, however, not fully clear how to generalize this to the percentage contribution of each study to a NMA estimate. METHODS We define the importance of each study for a NMA estimate by the reduction of the estimate's variance when adding the given study to the others. An equivalent interpretation is the relative loss in precision when the study is left out. Importances are values between 0 and 1. An importance of 1 means that the study is an essential link of the pathway in the network connecting one of the treatments with another. RESULTS Importances can be defined for two-stage and one-stage NMA. These numbers in general do not add to one and thus cannot be interpreted as 'percentage contributions'. After briefly discussing other available approaches, we question whether it is possible to obtain unique percentage contributions for NMA. CONCLUSIONS Importances generalize the concept of weights in pairwise meta-analysis in a natural way. Moreover, they are uniquely defined, easily calculated, and have an intuitive interpretation. We give some real examples for illustration

Outcomes of non-invasive diagnostic modalities for the detection of coronary artery disease: network meta-analysis of diagnostic randomised controlled trials

Objective: To evaluate differences in downstream testing, coronary revascularisation, and clinical outcomes following non-invasive diagnostic modalities used to detect coronary artery disease. Design: Systematic review and network meta-analysis. Data sources: Medline, Medline in process, Embase, Cochrane Library for clinical trials, PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS, WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and Clinicaltrials.gov. Eligibility criteria for selecting studies: Diagnostic randomised controlled trials comparing non-invasive diagnostic modalities in patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of low risk acute coronary syndrome or stable coronary artery disease. Data synthesis: A random effects network meta-analysis synthesised available evidence from trials evaluating the effect of non-invasive diagnostic modalities on downstream testing and patient oriented outcomes in patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Modalities included exercise electrocardiograms, stress echocardiography, single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging, real time myocardial contrast echocardiography, coronary computed tomographic angiography, and cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Unpublished outcome data were obtained from 11 trials. Results: 18 trials of patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome (n=11 329) and 12 trials of those with suspected stable coronary artery disease (n=22 062) were included. Among patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, stress echocardiography, cardiovascular magnetic resonance, and exercise electrocardiograms resulted in fewer invasive referrals for coronary angiography than coronary computed tomographic angiography (odds ratio 0.28 (95% confidence interval 0.14 to 0.57), 0.32 (0.15 to 0.71), and 0.53 (0.28 to 1.00), respectively). There was no effect on the subsequent risk of myocardial infarction, but estimates were imprecise. Heterogeneity and inconsistency were low. In patients with suspected stable coronary artery disease, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or single photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging resulted in fewer downstream tests than coronary computed tomographic angiography (0.24 (0.08 to 0.74) and 0.57 (0.37 to 0.87), respectively). However, exercise electrocardiograms yielded the highest downstream testing rate. Estimates for death and myocardial infarction were imprecise without clear discrimination between strategies. Conclusions: For patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome, an initial diagnostic strategy of stress echocardiography or cardiovascular magnetic resonance is associated with fewer referrals for invasive coronary angiography and revascularisation procedures than non-invasive anatomical testing, without apparent impact on the future risk of myocardial infarction. For suspected stable coronary artery disease, there was no clear discrimination between diagnostic strategies regarding the subsequent need for invasive coronary angiography, and differences in the risk of myocardial infarction cannot be ruled out. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO registry no CRD42016049442

Characterization of antifungal C-type lectin receptor expression on murine epithelial and endothelial cells in mucosal tissues

Funding Information: We thank P. Asamaphan, A. Clark, and B. Kerscher for providing NIH overexpression cell lines, S. Yamasaki for the anti‐Mincle antibody, the staff of the University of Aberdeen animal facility for the care for our animals, and the Iain Fraser Cytometry Centre at the University of Aberdeen for their assistance. This work was supported by funding from the Wellcome Trust (102705, 217163), the Medical Research Council Centre for Medical Mycology, and the University of Exeter (MR/N006364/2).Peer reviewedPublisher PD

PCR-based detection of mobile genetic elements in total community DNA

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What guidance are researchers given on how to present network meta-analyses to end-users such as policymakers and clinicians? A systematic review

© 2014 Sullivan et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Introduction: Network meta-analyses (NMAs) are complex methodological approaches that may be challenging for non-technical end-users, such as policymakers and clinicians, to understand. Consideration should be given to identifying optimal approaches to presenting NMAs that help clarify analyses. It is unclear what guidance researchers currently have on how to present and tailor NMAs to different end-users. Methods: A systematic review of NMA guidelines was conducted to identify guidance on how to present NMAs. Electronic databases and supplementary sources were searched for NMA guidelines. Presentation format details related to sample formats, target audiences, data sources, analysis methods and results were extracted and frequencies tabulated. Guideline quality was assessed following criteria developed for clinical practice guidelines. Results: Seven guidelines were included. Current guidelines focus on how to conduct NMAs but provide limited guidance to researchers on how to best present analyses to different end-users. None of the guidelines provided reporting templates. Few guidelines provided advice on tailoring presentations to different end-users, such as policymakers. Available guidance on presentation formats focused on evidence networks, characteristics of individual trials, comparisons between direct and indirect estimates and assumptions of heterogeneity and/or inconsistency. Some guidelines also provided examples of figures and tables that could be used to present information. Conclusions: Limited guidance exists for researchers on how best to present NMAs in an accessible format, especially for non-technical end-users such as policymakers and clinicians. NMA guidelines may require further integration with end-users' needs, when NMAs are used to support healthcare policy and practice decisions. Developing presentation formats that enhance understanding and accessibility of NMAs could also enhance the transparency and legitimacy of decisions informed by NMAs.The Canadian Institute of Health Research (CIHR) Drug Safety and Effectiveness Network (Funding reference number – 116573)

An Agent-Based Approach to Self-Organized Production

The chapter describes the modeling of a material handling system with the production of individual units in a scheduled order. The units represent the agents in the model and are transported in the system which is abstracted as a directed graph. Since the hindrances of units on their path to the destination can lead to inefficiencies in the production, the blockages of units are to be reduced. Therefore, the units operate in the system by means of local interactions in the conveying elements and indirect interactions based on a measure of possible hindrances. If most of the units behave cooperatively ("socially"), the blockings in the system are reduced. A simulation based on the model shows the collective behavior of the units in the system. The transport processes in the simulation can be compared with the processes in a real plant, which gives conclusions about the consequencies for the production based on the superordinate planning.Comment: For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Endocrine pancreas development and regeneration: noncanonical ideas from neural stem cell biology

Loss of insulin-producing pancreatic islet β-cells is a hallmark of type 1 diabetes. Several experimental paradigms demonstrate that these cells can, in principle, be regenerated from multiple endogenous sources using signaling pathways that are also used during pancreas development. A thorough understanding of these pathways will provide improved opportunities for therapeutic intervention. It is now appreciated that signaling pathways should not be seen as “on” or “off” but that the degree of activity may result in wildly different cellular outcomes. In addition to the degree of operation of a signaling pathway, noncanonical branches also play important roles. Thus, a pathway, once considered as “off” or “low” may actually be highly operational but may be using noncanonical branches. Such branches are only now revealing themselves as new tools to assay them are being generated. A formidable source of noncanonical signal transduction concepts is neural stem cells because these cells appear to have acquired unusual signaling interpretations to allow them to maintain their unique dual properties (self-renewal and multipotency). We discuss how such findings from the neural field can provide a blueprint for the identification of new molecular mechanisms regulating pancreatic biology, with a focus on Notch, Hes/Hey, and hedgehog pathways