Data Quality and Information Validity – the Case of the Negative Prognosis Plant Protection Model

The Negative Prognosis model (NPM) is a meteorological plant protection model that has been used in the farming practice for a long time now for controlling potato late blight, caused by Phytophthora infestans. NPM takes hourly air temperature, relative humidity (RH) and precipitation sums as input, generating recommendations on the first protective treatment date. The objective of the present work was to determine the impact of weather data quality on the NPM recommendations quality. Sensitivity analysis was conducted through inspection of source code and simulation. Data for simulation were prepared so as to measure a possible delay of the recommended date of the first treatment. Simulation experiments were performed to assess the recommendations quality for the direct-measurement data and the prepared data. It was established that the recommendations depend on the measurement precision of the RH near the value of 87% and air temperature near the values of 10, 12, 14, 16, 18 and 24 °C. The decisive factor is RH measurement precision. Small variations of RH of 2–3% may cause a serious miscalculation of the recommended date of the first treatment of 8-11 days.</jats:p

Country-Wide qPCR Based Assessment of Plasmodiophora brassicae Spread in Agricultural Soils and Recommendations for the Cultivation of Brassicaceae Crops in Poland

Clubroot is a damaging disease of oilseed rape and vegetable brassicas worldwide, caused by the soil-borne protist Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor. Due to the long life of resting spores, the assessment of the pathogen abundance in agricultural fields can serve as a guideline for disease control at the country-wide level or the regional scale. Between 2013 and 2019, we collected 431 soil samples from fields cultivated with Brassicaceae crops throughout 16 provinces of Poland. The samples were subjected to qPCR based analysis of P. brassicae DNA concentration. From these data, the spore loads and gene copies g−1 soil were calculated and used to produce an assessment of the current clubroot risk potential at a country-wide and regional scale. The country-wide map, showing the spread of the pathogen in agricultural soils, was made using ArcGis software package implementing the interpolation with the Inverse Distance Weight method. The calculation of gene copies specific to P. brassicae helped to formulate the recommendations for farmers in respect to the cultivation guidelines. It showed a high risk of yield losses in defined regions of north, south-west and central Poland and an urgent need to undertake intensive preventative measures

Agricultural autumn drought and crop yield in 2011 in Poland

Over the recent years, drought has been occurring with an ever increasing frequency in Poland. The longer the rainless period lasts, the more acute its impacts are. Agricultural drought manifests itself as a prolonged period of water shortage for agricultural crops during their growth season resulting in yield reduction. Extent of drought was evaluated by the climatic water balance (CWB). Climatic water balance is an indicator that determines the state of humidification of the environment using data measured at meteorological stations. It is defined as the difference between atmospheric precipitation and evapotranspiration (in millimeters) calculated by an empirical formula taking into account: temperature, sunshine, and length of the day. CWB was calculated using meteorological data from 294 weather stations and weather posts across Poland. Spatial data from point measurements were interpolated using the Geographic Information System (GIS) software. Yield forecasts were made for major crops in Poland using agro-meteorological yield models and weather indices (WI). Yield figures were based on data from the Central Statistical Office of Poland (GUS). The autumn of 2011 was the driest in several dozen years in many localities of southeastern Poland. For instance, at the weather station in Puławy, the lowest level of precipitation had been recorded since 1871. Weather conditions prevailing in the growing season of 2012 were very beneficial for winter cereals and winter rapeseed. As for sugar beet, the weather also favored high yields over most of the growing season, except the final stage of growth. Notwithstanding the extreme drought in the autumn of 2011, the good weather conditions in the remaining part of the growth period caused the yields of winter crops and sugar beet to be high. The very scant autumn precipitation, even though it had negative impact on the germination of cereals, seedling emergence, and seedling growth, did not cause any major losses to yields. Water supplies from September precipitation combined with frequent morning mists, fogs, and dew mitigated the impact of prolonged drought and were sufficient to sustain the yields at an acceptable level

Model-based reconstruction and projections of soil moisture anomalies and crop losses in Poland

Evidence shows that soil moisture (SM) anomalies (deficits or excesses) are the key factor affecting crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. Over last decades, Poland has faced several major droughts and at least one major soil moisture excess event leading to severe crop losses. This study aims to simulate the multi-annual variability of SM anomalies in Poland, using a process-based SWAT model and to assess the effect of climate change on future extreme SM conditions, potentially affecting crop yields in Poland. A crop-specific indicator based on simulated daily soil moisture content for the critical development stages of investigated crops (winter cereals, spring cereals, potato and maize) was designed, evaluated for past conditions against empirical crop-weather indices (CWIs), and applied for studying future climate conditions. The study used an ensemble of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX projections for two future horizons: 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP4.5 and 8.5. Historical simulation results showed that SWAT was capable of capturing major SM deficit and excess episodes for different crops in Poland. For spring cereals, potato and maize, despite a large model spread, projections generally showed increase of severity of soil moisture deficits, as well as of total area affected by them. Ensemble median fraction of land with extreme soil moisture deficits, occupied by each of these crops, is projected to at least double in size. The signals of change in soil moisture excesses for potato and maize were more dependent on selection of RCP and future horizon. © 2020, The Author(s)

Cereal yield gaps across Europe

peer-reviewedEurope accounts for around 20% of the global cereal production and is a net exporter of ca. 15% of that production. Increasing global demand for cereals justifies questions as to where and by how much Europe’s production can be increased to meet future global market demands, and how much additional nitrogen (N) crops would require. The latter is important as environmental concern and legislation are equally important as production aims in Europe. Here, we used a country-by-country, bottom-up approach to establish statistical estimates of actual grain yield, and compare these to modelled estimates of potential yields for either irrigated or rainfed conditions. In this way, we identified the yield gaps and the opportunities for increased cereal production for wheat, barley and maize, which represent 90% of the cereals grown in Europe. The combined mean annual yield gap of wheat, barley, maize was 239 Mt, or 42% of the yield potential. The national yield gaps ranged between 10 and 70%, with small gaps in many north-western European countries, and large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe. Yield gaps for rainfed and irrigated maize were consistently lower than those of wheat and barley. If the yield gaps of maize, wheat and barley would be reduced from 42% to 20% of potential yields, this would increase annual cereal production by 128 Mt (39%). Potential for higher cereal production exists predominantly in Eastern Europe, and half of Europe’s potential increase is located in Ukraine, Romania and Poland. Unlocking the identified potential for production growth requires a substantial increase of the crop N uptake of 4.8 Mt. Across Europe, the average N uptake gaps, to achieve 80% of the yield potential, were 87, 77 and 43 kg N ha−1 for wheat, barley and maize, respectively. Emphasis on increasing the N use efficiency is necessary to minimize the need for additional N inputs. Whether yield gap reduction is desirable and feasible is a matter of balancing Europe’s role in global food security, farm economic objectives and environmental targets.We received financial contributions from the strategic investment funds (IPOP) of Wageningen University & Research, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, MACSUR under EU FACCE-JPI which was funded through several national contributions, and TempAg (http://tempag.net/)

The regional trends in maize yield in Poland and its prediction according regional GLOBIOM –CAPRI baseline analysis for 2010, 2030 and 2050

The increase of maize production in Polish agriculture is considered as one of the indicators showing temporal climate change impact. The sowing area of grain maize in Poland increased from 152 thousand hectares in 2000 to 614 thousand hectares in 2013. In the same time, the area of maize production for forage in Poland has increased from 162 to 462 thousand hectares. There is observed increase of yield level but the regional differentiation of this trend is also visible. In the paper we discuss the temporal regional trends in maize yield in Poland connected to the limitation factors (soil, climate, fertilisation) and prognosis for further climate change impact using GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations. The data for the analysis of regional trends for maize production level in 16th regions in Poland (NUTS2) were taken from National Statistical Offices Reports. The GLOBIOM-CAPRI regional simulations for baseline analysis 2010, 2030 and 2050 were obtained from MASCUR knowledge-hab evaluation exercises. As a limitation factors for of maize yield we considered the index for suitable soil and climate suitability index for climate developed in Poland and fertilisation. We have identified that observed positive trend in yield level at NUTS2 is correlated with the climate suitability index and level of NPK fertilisation, whilst there is no statistical relations with soil quality index. The GLOBIOM –CAPRI regional simulation for 2030 shows that the maize yield in Poland will further increase and it can be explained by realisation of existing trends. In simulations for the baseline 2050 year there is visible negative trend in yield level in some regions, where even in current climate there is high probability of deficit precipitation (eg. Wielkopolskia region)

Wpływ jesiennego terminu siewu na plon i jakość ziarna pszenicy jarej

Badania przeprowadzono w trzech sezonach wegetacyjnych (2007/2008, 2008/2009 i 2009/2010). W jednoczynnikowym doświadczeniu mikropoletkowym badano wpływ terminu siewu na plon i wartość technologiczną ziarna pszenicy jarej od- miany Cytra. Zastosowano cztery terminy siewu: trzy jesienne i jeden wiosenny (w terminie optymalnym). Stwierdzono istotny wpływ terminu siewu na plonowanie i wartość technologiczną ziarna pszenicy jarej. Wyższe plony uzyskano z zasiewów jesiennych niż wiosennych. Elementami plonowania, które zapewniły pszenicy jarej odmiany Cytra sianej w terminie jesiennym większy plon ziarna niż w zasiewie wiosennym, były większa masa ziarna i liczba ziaren z kłosa oraz zwiększone krzewienie produkcyjne roślin. Ziarno o lepszej wartości technologicznej (większa zawartość białka ogółem, w tym białek glutenowych, większe wartości wskaźnika sedymentacyjnego) uzyskano z siewu wiosennego

The Impact of Climate Change and Strong Anthropopressure on the Annual Growth of Scots Pine (<i>Pinus sylvestris</i> L.) Wood Growing in Eastern Poland

Changes in annual tree ring width (TRW) and its size depends not only on the changing climate and natural stress factors such as extreme air temperatures, shortages in rainfall and excess rainfall during the growing season, but also on anthropogenic stress, including chemical compounds emitted to the atmosphere or lowering of the groundwater table caused by the operations of plants with high environmental impact. The purpose of this article is to assess the impact of meteorological conditions and anthropogenic factors on the size of annual growth of Scots pine tree-stands in the conditions of the climate of central-eastern Poland. On the basis of five created site chronologies in the vicinity of Zakłady Azotowe Puławy (nitrogen factories in Puławy) and using the moving correlation analysis and multiple regression analysis, a significant influence of temperature and precipitation conditions on the TRW size is proved. A significant, positive influence of air temperature on TRW was proved for the majority of chronologies created in the period of January&#8315;March, as well as in June, while it remained negative in May. The wide rings of Scots pines were formed when the precipitation of October and January (prior to the resumption of cambium activity) was lower than the average, and higher in April and in June&#8315;August. After including the anthropopressure factors in the regression equations, the description of the variability of the annual tree ring width was corrected. The coefficient of determination ranged from approx. 29% to even above 45% and was higher, on average by 10%, for all studied chronologies of Scots pine compared to the one calculated for constructed equations considering only meteorological conditions. The strength and direction of the impact of the independent variables (SO2, NH3, NOx) analysed on TRW mainly depended on the distance from the plants, as well as on the direction of inflow of industrial pollution to the stands examined. In light of the proven climate changes in central and eastern Poland, the growth conditions of pine stands will most likely deteriorate

Demographic trends in rural areas in Poland taking into account the functional types of communes (survey research)

Praca powstała na podstawie wyników badań ankietowych nt. wielofunkcyjnego rozwoju obszarów wiejskich zrealizowanych w latach 2018/2019 i obejmujących szeroki zakres pytań dotyczących sfery gospodarczej, społecznej i planistycznej. Ankietę skierowano do wójtów i burmistrzów gmin wiejskichi miejsko-wiejskich. Wielofunkcyjny rozwój obszarów wiejskich w badaniu analizowano w relacji do typu funkcjonalnego gminy wyrażającego charakter gminy i specyfikę jej aktualnego rozwoju, w kontekście aktualnych trendów demograficznych. W artykule przeprowadzono ocenę sytuacji demograficznej w gminach, natomiast pominięto wątek działań władz samorządowychw zakresie gospodarczym i planistycznym i ich wpływ na wielofunkcyjny rozwójobszarów wiejskich. Badania wykazałyproces wyludniania się zdecydowanej większości obszarów wiejskich i duże zróżnicowanie przestrzenne tego zjawiska w odniesieniu do poszczególnych województw. Ocena wykazała, że obszary wiejskie w obrębie gmin miejsko-wiejskich podlegają depopulacji w większym stopniu niż w gminach wiejskich. Wykazano, że największy odsetek gmin utrzymujących ujemne saldo zaludnienia koncentruje się w gminach o charakterze typowo rolniczym, przygranicznym i leśnym.The work was based on the results of surveys on multifunctional rural development implemented in 2018/2019 and covering a wide range of questions about the economic, social and planning sphere. The survey was addressed to local authorities (mayors, commune administrators) of rural and urban-rural communes. In the study, multifunctional rural development was analyzed within the functional type of the commune expressing the character of the commune and the specificity of its current development in the context of current demographic trends. The article assesses the demographic situation in communes. Research has shown the intensive process of depopulation the most of rural areas and a large spatial diversity of this phenomenon in relation to provinces. The evaluation showed that rural areas within urban-rural communes are more depopulated compared to rural communes. Analyzing the process of depopulation by functional types, it was found that the largest percentage of communes maintaining a negative population balance is concentrated in typically agricultural, located at the border and forestry communes

Country-Wide qPCR Based Assessment of Plasmodiophora brassicae Spread in Agricultural Soils and Recommendations for the Cultivation of Brassicaceae Crops in Poland

Clubroot is a damaging disease of oilseed rape and vegetable brassicas worldwide, caused by the soil-borne protist Plasmodiophora brassicae Wor. Due to the long life of resting spores, the assessment of the pathogen abundance in agricultural fields can serve as a guideline for disease control at the country-wide level or the regional scale. Between 2013 and 2019, we collected 431 soil samples from fields cultivated with Brassicaceae crops throughout 16 provinces of Poland. The samples were subjected to qPCR based analysis of P. brassicae DNA concentration. From these data, the spore loads and gene copies g&minus;1 soil were calculated and used to produce an assessment of the current clubroot risk potential at a country-wide and regional scale. The country-wide map, showing the spread of the pathogen in agricultural soils, was made using ArcGis software package implementing the interpolation with the Inverse Distance Weight method. The calculation of gene copies specific to P. brassicae helped to formulate the recommendations for farmers in respect to the cultivation guidelines. It showed a high risk of yield losses in defined regions of north, south-west and central Poland and an urgent need to undertake intensive preventative measures