Quasi Risk-Neutral Pricing in Insurance

This contribution shows that for certain classes of insurance risks, pricing can be based on expected values under a probability measure ℙ* amounting to quasi risk-neutral pricing. This probability measure is unique and optimal in the sense of minimizing the relative entropy with respect to the actuarial probability measure ℙ, which is a common approach in the case of incomplete markets. After expounding the key elements of this theory, an application to a set of industrial property risks is developed, assuming that the severity of losses can be modeled by "Swiss Re Exposure Curves”, as discussed by Bernegger (1997). These curves belong to a parametric family of distribution functions commonly used by pricing actuaries. The quasi risk-neutral pricing approach not only yields risk exposure specific premiums but also Risk Adjusted Capital (RAC) values on the very same level of granularity. By way of contrast, the conventional determination of RAC is typically considered on a portfolio level onl

Quasi risk-neutral pricing in insurance

This contribution shows that for certain classes of insurance risks, pricing can be based on expected values under a probability measure P* amounting to quasi risk-neutral pricing. This probability measure is unique and optimal in the sense of minimizing the relative entropy with respect to the actuarial probability measure P, which is a common approach in the case of incomplete markets. After expounding the key elements of this theory, an application to a set of industrial property risks is developed, assuming that the severity of losses can be modeled by 'Swiss Re Exposure Curves', as discussed by Bernegger (1997). These curves belong to a parametric family of distribution functions commonly used by pricing actuaries. The quasi risk-neutral pricing approach not only yields risk exposure specific premiums but also Risk Adjusted Capital (RAC) values on the very same level of granularity. By way of contrast, the conventional determination of RAC is typically considered on a portfolio level only

Evaluation of the first automated thyroglobulin assay

The aim of this study was to investigate technical and analytical performance of the first automated thyroglobulin (Tg) assay (DPC-Immulite(R); Diagnostic Products Corporation, Los Angeles, USA). In imprecision studies using several human serum pools ranging from 21 to 58 replicates, a coefficient of variation of 9.0 % was obtained at a mean Tg concentration of 0.84 ng/ml and of 6.1 % at a Tg concentration of 62.1 ng/ml. In a method comparison with a non-automated assay (BRAHMS LUMItest Tg(R), BRAHMS, Berlin, Germany) using 383 sera of 303 patients with thyroid carcinoma, regression analysis according to Passing and Bablock yielded in the following equation: Immulite Tg=1.6 x BRAHMS Tg - 0.1 ng/ml (Pearson's r=0.979). Sera obtained from 59 patients with thyroid carcinoma enabled comparative follow-up studies; in all cases qualitative agreement was found with regard to increase or decrease of serum Tg; in eight cases, however, Tg was detected with the Immulite assay but not with the BRAHMS assay. Further follow-up proved the presence of thyroid tissue in these patients. From these and further methodological data (dilution linearity, interference studies, carry-over study, high-dose hook properties, and short report time) it is concluded that the DPC-Immulite Tg assay meets the requirements of routine diagnostic use

Cholecystokinin receptor antagonism of stimulated pancreatic and gastric secretion

The effects of cholecystokinin receptor antagonist, dipentyl-3,4-dichloroproglumide (DDP), on stimulated pancreatic and gastric secretion were studied in the rat. DDP dose-dependently inhibited cholecystokinin-stimulated amylase release from dispersed acinar cells. In vivo, DDP inhibited cholecystokinin octapeptide-stimulated amylase and protein secretion. DDP also inhibited pentagastrin-stimulated gastric acid secretion in vivo. Meal-stimulated acid output was decreased by 34% (DDP 400 [mu]g/kg/hr) but responsiveness to histamine or parachlorophenyl-[gamma]-aminobutyric acid was unchanged.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/27708/1/0000094.pd

Phase transformation pathways in a Ti-5.9Cu alloy modified with Fe and Al

Titanium alloys have been gaining importance in various industries due to their advantageous combination of strength, low density, excellent corrosion/oxidation resistance, and superior mechanical properties at elevated temperatures. Recently, eutectoid Ti–Cu alloys have been explored as promising candidates for advanced processes. This work investigates the effects of Fe and Al on a Ti-5.9Cu alloy using multi-scale characterization techniques. While Fe acts as a β-stabilizing element (despite being a sluggish eutectoid former), Al acts as an α-stabilizer. This work focuses on the effects of combined addition of these elements, studied in different heat treatment conditions. The results show that a fine, equiaxed microstructure is obtained in the binary Ti-5.9Cu alloy, whereas the addition of 2 wt% Fe, or 2 wt% Fe combined with 2 wt% Al to the Ti-5.9Cu alloy deteriorates the effect of grain refinement and coarse, columnar grains result and a small amount of β-phase is retained. Further, the microstructure resulting from the eutectoid decomposition is altered dramatically from a lamellar pearlitic in the binary alloy to a lath-like α-phase with diverse decomposition products in the ternary and quaternary alloys accompanied by increasing hardness values. Evaluation of the α misorientation suggests that a substantial amount of non-Burgers α is present in the Ti-Cu alloy in contrast to the results of the ternary and quaternary alloys. The observed Cu-rich intermetallic compound was identified as Ti$_2$Cu phase with off-stoichiometric composition. Results obtained explain how adding either Fe or Fe and Al leads to substantial hardening

The cognitive profile of type 1 Gaucher disease patients

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.BACKGROUND: The absence of neurological symptoms and signs is traditionally considered mandatory for a diagnosis of type 1 Gaucher disease (GD1), but in recent years many reports have emerged on neurological manifestations in GD1 patients. Nevertheless, it has been unclear whether cognitive deficits are part of the disease as well. METHODS: Cognitive function was assessed in a large cohort of GD1 patients with the use of the CDR system, a set of computerised cognitive tests. Testing was performed at baseline and every 6 months thereafter during a two-year study period. RESULTS: Our patient cohort (84 patients, median age 40 years, median time from diagnosis 15 years) showed mild deficits relative to healthy age-matched subjects on the composite scores: power of attention (Z-score (mean ± SD) -0.9 ± 1.37) and speed of memory (Z-score (mean ± SD) -1.39 ± 1.49). No decline in cognitive function was seen during the two-year period. Age correlated with the composite scores variability of attention and quality of working memory. Moreover, severely affected patients (Zimran severity score (SSI) ≥ 15) scored more poorly compared to mildly affected patients (SSI ≤ 5) on the composite measure power of attention, reflecting the ability to concentrate. CONCLUSIONS: GD1 patients exhibit mild deficits in power of attention and speed of memory, reflecting a decreased ability to focus attention and process information, together with a slowing in the speed of retrieval of items from memory. The clinical relevance of these findings is uncertain.This work was supported by Actelion Pharmaceuticals Ltd, Allschwil, Switzerland. This study was set up under the auspices of the European Working Group on Gaucher Disease (EWGGD). MB received financial support from Actelion to conduct her activities related to this study. MB, CEMH, INvS and AM have received consultancy fees from Actelion for participation in clinical trial programs and other projects, and CEMH, INvS and AM have received speaker fees for participation in scientific congresses and sponsored events. MB and CEMH donate all fees to the Gaucher Stichting, a national foundation that supports research in the field of lysosomal storage disorders. Consulting fees for INvS are donated to the Stichting Klinische Neurologie, a local foundation that supports research in the field of neurological disorders. DH has received consultancy fees from Actelion for participation in clinical trials, grants for local laboratory projects, and speaker fees for participation in scientific congresses and sponsored events. KEM, PG and LM have received speaker fees from Actelion for participation in sponsored events. PG received consultancy fees for participation in local clinical projects. LM received a travel grant from Actelion and was financially supported by TÁMOP 4.2.1./B-09/1/KONV-2010-0007 and TÁMOP 4.2.2-08/1-2008-0015. CN got speaker fees for participation in scientific meetings. KAW was sole shareholder of Cognitive Drug Research Ltd. Cognitive Drug Research Ltd supplied the CDR System for the study and received financial support from Actelion. KAW is currently an employee of United BioSource Corporation (UBC) that owns the CDR System since August 2009. CL is an employee of Actelion Pharmaceuticals Ltd. MP and MM report no conflicts of interest

A record-linkage study of the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in persons with hepatitis C infection in Scotland

We investigated trends in first time hospital admissions and deaths attributable to hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a large population based cohort of 22 073 individuals diagnosed with hepatitis C viral (HCV) infection through laboratory testing in Scotland in 1991 2006. We identified new cases of HCC through record linkage to the national inpatient hospital discharge database and deaths registry. A total of 172 persons diagnosed with HCV were admitted to hospital or died with first time mention of HCC. Hepatocellular carcinoma incidence increased between 1996 and 2006 (average annual change of 6.1, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.9 11.6%, P¼0.021). The adjusted relative risk of HCC was greater for males (hazard ratio¼2.7, 95% CI: 1.7 4.2), for those aged 60 years or older (hazard ratio ¼2.7, 95% CI: 1.9 4.1) compared with 50 59 years, and for those with a previous alcohol related hospital admission (hazard ratio¼2.5, 95% CI: 1.7 3.7). The risk of individuals diagnosed with HCV developing HCC was greatlyincreased compared with the general Scottish population (standardised incidence ratio¼127, 95% CI: 102 156). Owing to the advancing age of the Scottish HCV diagnosed population, the annual number of HCC cases is projected to increase, with a consequent increasing burden on the public healthcare system

Safety, tolerability and efficacy of peginterferon alpha-2a and ribavirin in chronic hepatitis C in clinical practice: The German Open Safety Trial

The combination treatment of peginterferon alpha-2a (PEG-IFN alpha-2a; Pegasys®) plus ribavirin (RBV) is recommended as a standard care for HCV infections. Side effects and aspects of efficacy and safety have to be balanced. This study evaluates clinical practice data on safety and efficacy of HCV treatment with PEG-IFN in combination with RBV over 24 and 48 weeks. This study was a phase III, multi-centre, open-label study with two treatment groups: PEG-IFN in combination with RBV for 24 or 48 weeks. The allocation to the treatment groups was at the discretion of the investigator; 309 patients entered active treatment: 90 patients received PEG-IFN plus RBV for 24 weeks and 219 patients PEG-IFN plus RBV for 48 weeks. A sustained virological response (SVR) was achieved in 48.9% of all patients. Genotype 1 patients with a 48-week combination treatment achieved an SVR of 39.9%. In the 48-week group a low baseline viral load was associated with a higher SVR rate (47.0% vs. 32.4%). For genotype 2 or 3 patients, the SVR was 67.9%. For these patients there was no relevant difference between patients with low and high viral loads; 97.7% of the patients experienced at least one adverse event. The incidence of serious adverse events was distinctly lower in the 24-week group (4.4% vs. 10.5%). This investigation confirms the well-known risk–benefit ratio found in controlled studies in a clinical practice setting. The safety profile is similar and shows the highest incidence of adverse events in the first 12 weeks of treatment