Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Trends in 'poor responder' research: lessons learned from RCTs in assisted conception

BACKGROUND A substantial minority of women undergoing IVF will under-respond to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation. These women—so-called ‘poor responders’—suffer persistently reduced success rates after IVF. Currently, no single intervention is unanimously accepted as beneficial in overcoming poor ovarian response (POR). This has been supported by the available research on POR, which consists mainly of randomized controlled trials (RCTs ) with an inherent high-risk of bias. The aim of this review was to critically appraise the available experimental trials on POR and provide guidance towards more useful—less wasteful—future research. METHODS A comprehensive review was undertaken of RCTs on ‘poor responders’ published in the last 15 years. Data on various methodological traits as well as important clinical characteristics were extracted from the included studies and summarized, with a view to identifying deficiencies from which lessons can be learned. Based on this analysis, recommendations were provided for further research in this field of assisted conception. RESULTS We selected and analysed 75 RCTs. A valid, ‘low-risk’ randomization method was reported in three out of four RCTs. An improving trend in reporting concealment of patient allocation was also evident over the 15-year period. In contrast, <1 in 10 RCTs ‘blinded’ patients and <1 in 5 RCTs ‘blinded’ staff to the proposed intervention. Only 1 in 10 RCTs ‘blinded’ ultrasound practitioners to patient allocation, when assessing the outcome of early pregnancy. The majority of trials reported an intention-to-treat analysis for at least one of their outcomes, with an improving trend in the recent years. Substantial variation was noted in the definitions used for ‘poor responders’, the most popular being ‘low ovarian response at previous stimulation’. The preferred cut-off value for defining previous low response has been ‘less or equal to three retrieved oocytes’. The most popular tests used for diagnosing diminished ovarian reserve have been antral follicle count and FSH. Although the Bologna criteria for POR were only recently introduced, they are expected to become a popular definition in future ‘poor responder’ trials. Numerous interventions have been studied on ‘poor responders’. Most of these have been applied before/during controlled ovarian hyperstimulation. The antagonist protocol, the microdose flare protocol and the long down-regulation protocol have been among the most popular interventions. The analysis of outcomes revealed a clear improving trend in reporting live birth. In contrast, only 10% of RCTs reported significant improvement in reproductive outcomes among tested interventions. Twelve ‘significant’ interventions were reported, each supported by a single ‘positive’ RCT. Finally, trials of higher methodological quality were more likely to have been published in a high-impact journal. CONCLUSIONS Overall, the majority of published trials on POR suffer from methodological flaws and are, thus, regarded as being high-risk for bias. The same trials have used a variety of definitions for their poor responders and a variety of interventions for their head-to-head comparisons. Not surprisingly, discrepancies are also evident in the findings of trials comparing similar interventions. Based on the identified deficiencies, this novel type of ‘methodology and clinical’ review has introduced custom recommendations on how to improve future experimental research in the ‘poor responder’ population

Stage-specific trends in primary therapy and survival in follicular lymphoma: a nationwide population-based analysis in the Netherlands, 1989–2016

We assessed stage-specific trends in primary therapy and relative survival among adult follicular lymphoma (FL) patients diagnosed in the Netherlands between 1989–2016 (N = 12,372; median age, 62 years; and 21% stage I disease). Patients were stratified by disease stage and subsequently categorized into four calendar periods (1989–1995, 1996–2002, 2003–2008, and 2009–2016) and three age groups (18–60, 61–70, and >70 years). The use of radiotherapy in stage I FL remained relatively stable over time and across the three age groups (i.e., 66%, 54%, and 49% in 2009–2016, respectively). In stage II-IV FL, the start of chemotherapy within 12 months post-diagnosis decreased over time, indicating a broader application of a watch-and-wait approach. Relative survival improved considerably over time, especially since 2003 when rituximab was introduced in the Netherlands, and for stage III-IV FL patients and older age groups. Five-year relative survival for patients with stage I-II versus stage III-IV FL in the period 2009–2016 was 96% versus 90%, 93% versus 83%, and 92% versus 68% across the three age groups, respectively. Collectively, the improvement in survival since 2003 is accounted for by advances in FL management, particularly the implementation of rituximab. There remains, however, room for improvement among elderly stage III-IV FL patients

Time trends in primary therapy and relative survival of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma by stage: a nationwide, population-based study in the Netherlands, 1989–2018

It is unclear whether survival in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) continues to increase in an era where rituximab-containing chemotherapy reigns for almost two decades. Therefore, we evaluated trends in primary therapy and relative survival (RS) among Dutch DLBCL patients diagnosed between 1989 and 2018. Analyses were performed separately according to the stage I (N = 6952) and stage II–IV disease (N = 20,676), stratified by calendar period and age (18–64, 65–74, and ≥75 years). The use of chemotherapy ± radiotherapy increased over time across all age and stage groups. As of the mid-2000s, >95% of chemotherapy-treated patients received chemoimmunotherapy, irrespective of age and stage. Overall, RS increased significantly over time across all age groups, especially after 2003 when rituximab-containing chemotherapy had become the standard of care. However, RS increased less pronounced between 2003–2010 and 2011–2018 than between 1989–2002 and 2003–2010. These findings were congruent across all studied stage groups. Five-year RS across the three age groups during 2011–2018 was 96%, 84%, and 67% for stage I DLBCL and 75%, 60%, and 46% for stage II–IV DLBCL. Collectively, survival in DLBCL increased modestly beyond the initial introduction of rituximab, with apparent survival differences across age and stage that warrant novel treatment approaches

The costs of initial treatment for patients with acute myeloid leukemia in the Netherlands.

Item does not contain fulltextThe aim of this study was to calculate the costs of the current initial treatment of acute myeloid leukemia. Resource use was collected for 202 patients who started with intensive chemotherapy in 2008 or 2009. The costs of the first induction course were significantly higher than the costs of the second induction course. Allogeneic transplantation from a matched unrelated donor was significantly more expensive than the other consolidation treatments. In-hospital stay was the major cost driver in the treatment of AML. Research regarding possibilities of achieving the same or better health outcome with lower costs is warranted.1 maart 201

Reconstruction of interactions in the ProtoDUNE-SP detector with Pandora

International audienceThe Pandora Software Development Kit and algorithm libraries provide pattern-recognition logic essential to the reconstruction of particle interactions in liquid argon time projection chamber detectors. Pandora is the primary event reconstruction software used at ProtoDUNE-SP, a prototype for the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment far detector. ProtoDUNE-SP, located at CERN, is exposed to a charged-particle test beam. This paper gives an overview of the Pandora reconstruction algorithms and how they have been tailored for use at ProtoDUNE-SP. In complex events with numerous cosmic-ray and beam background particles, the simulated reconstruction and identification efficiency for triggered test-beam particles is above 80% for the majority of particle type and beam momentum combinations. Specifically, simulated 1 GeV/$c$ charged pions and protons are correctly reconstructed and identified with efficiencies of 86.1$\pm0.6$% and 84.1$\pm0.6$%, respectively. The efficiencies measured for test-beam data are shown to be within 5% of those predicted by the simulation