Model-Informed Risk Assessment and Decision Making for an Emerging Infectious Disease in the Asia-Pacific Region

Background: Effective response to emerging infectious disease (EID) threats relies on health care systems that can detect and contain localised outbreaks before they reach a national or international scale. The Asia-Pacific region contains low and middle income countries in which the risk of EID outbreaks is elevated and whose health care systems may require international support to effectively detect and respond to such events. The absence of comprehensive data on populations, health care systems and disease characteristics in this region makes risk assessment and decisions about the provision of such support challenging.\ud \ud Methodology/principal findings: We describe a mathematical modelling framework that can inform this process by integrating available data sources, systematically explore the effects of uncertainty, and provide estimates of outbreak risk under a range of intervention scenarios. We illustrate the use of this framework in the context of a potential importation of Ebola Virus Disease into the Asia-Pacific region. Results suggest that, across a wide range of plausible scenarios, preemptive interventions supporting the timely detection of early cases provide substantially greater reductions in the probability of large outbreaks than interventions that support health care system capacity after an outbreak has commenced.\ud \ud Conclusions/significance: Our study demonstrates how, in the presence of substantial uncertainty about health care system infrastructure and other relevant aspects of disease control, mathematical models can be used to assess the constraints that limited resources place upon the ability of local health care systems to detect and respond to EID outbreaks in a timely and effective fashion. Our framework can help evaluate the relative impact of these constraints to identify resourcing priorities for health care system support, in order to inform principled and quantifiable decision making

Electronic and physico-chemical properties of nanmetric boron delta-doped diamond structures

Heavily boron doped diamond epilayers with thicknesses ranging from 40 to less than 2 nm and buried between nominally undoped thicker layers have been grown in two different reactors. Two types of [100]-oriented single crystal diamond substrates were used after being characterized by X-ray white beam topography. The chemical composition and thickness of these so-called deltadoped structures have been studied by secondary ion mass spectrometry, transmission electron microscopy, and spectroscopic ellipsometry. Temperature-dependent Hall effect and four probe resistivity measurements have been performed on mesa-patterned Hall bars. The temperature dependence of the hole sheet carrier density and mobility has been investigated over a broad temperature range (6K<T<450 K). Depending on the sample, metallic or non-metallic behavior was observed. A hopping conduction mechanism with an anomalous hopping exponent was detected in the non-metallic samples. All metallic delta-doped layers exhibited the same mobility value, around 3.660.8 cm2/Vs, independently of the layer thickness and the substrate type. Comparison with previously published data and theoretical calculations showed that scattering by ionized impurities explained only partially this low common value. None of the delta-layers showed any sign of confinement-induced mobility enhancement, even for thicknesses lower than 2 nm.14 page

The transfer and decay of maternal antibody against Shigella sonnei in a longitudinal cohort of Vietnamese infants.

BACKGROUND: Shigella sonnei is an emergent and major diarrheal pathogen for which there is currently no vaccine. We aimed to quantify duration of maternal antibody against S. sonnei and investigate transplacental IgG transfer in a birth cohort in southern Vietnam. METHODS AND RESULTS: Over 500-paired maternal/infant plasma samples were evaluated for presence of anti-S. sonnei-O IgG and IgM. Longitudinal plasma samples allowed for the estimation of the median half-life of maternal anti-S. sonnei-O IgG, which was 43 days (95% confidence interval: 41-45 days). Additionally, half of infants lacked a detectable titer by 19 weeks of age. Lower cord titers were associated with greater increases in S. sonnei IgG over the first year of life, and the incidence of S. sonnei seroconversion was estimated to be 4/100 infant years. Maternal IgG titer, the ratio of antibody transfer, the season of birth and gestational age were significantly associated with cord titer. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal anti-S. sonnei-O IgG is efficiently transferred across the placenta and anti-S. sonnei-O maternal IgG declines rapidly after birth and is undetectable after 5 months in the majority of children. Preterm neonates and children born to mothers with low IgG titers have lower cord titers and therefore may be at greater risk of seroconversion in infancy

No Clinical Benefit of Empirical Antimicrobial Therapy for Pediatric Diarrhea in a High-Usage, High-Resistance Setting.

BACKGROUND: Pediatric diarrheal disease presents a major public health burden in low- to middle-income countries. The clinical benefits of empirical antimicrobial treatment for diarrhea are unclear in settings that lack reliable diagnostics and have high antimicrobial resistance (AMR). METHODS: We conducted a prospective multicenter cross-sectional study of pediatric patients hospitalized with diarrhea containing blood and/or mucus in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Clinical parameters, including disease outcome and treatment, were measured. Shigella, nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS), and Campylobacter were isolated from fecal samples, and their antimicrobial susceptibility profiles were determined. Statistical analyses, comprising log-rank tests and accelerated failure time models, were performed to assess the effect of antimicrobials on disease outcome. RESULTS: Among 3166 recruited participants (median age 10 months; interquartile range, 6.5-16.7 months), one-third (1096 of 3166) had bloody diarrhea, and 25% (793 of 3166) were culture positive for Shigella, NTS, or Campylobacter. More than 85% of patients (2697 of 3166) were treated with antimicrobials; fluoroquinolones were the most commonly administered antimicrobials. AMR was highly prevalent among the isolated bacteria, including resistance against fluoroquinolones and third-generation cephalosporins. Antimicrobial treatment and multidrug resistance status of the infecting pathogens were found to have no significant effect on outcome. Antimicrobial treatment was significantly associated with an increase in the duration of hospitalization with particular groups of diarrheal diseases. CONCLUSIONS: In a setting with high antimicrobial usage and high AMR, our results imply a lack of clinical benefit for treating diarrhea with antimicrobials; adequately powered randomized controlled trials are required to assess the role of antimicrobials for diarrhea

The Role of Maternally Acquired Antibody in Providing Protective Immunity Against Nontyphoidal Salmonella in Urban Vietnamese Infants: A Birth Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) organisms are a major cause of gastroenteritis and bacteremia, but little is known about maternally acquired immunity and natural exposure in infant populations residing in areas where NTS disease is highly endemic. METHODS: We recruited 503 pregnant mothers and their infants (following delivery) from urban areas in Vietnam and followed infants until they were 1 year old. Exposure to the dominant NTS serovars, Salmonella enterica serovars Typhimurium and Enteritidis, were assessed using lipopolysaccharide (LPS) O antigen-specific antibodies. Antibody dynamics, the role of maternally acquired antibodies, and NTS seroincidence rates were modeled using multivariate linear risk factor models and generalized additive mixed-effect models. RESULTS: Transplacental transfer of NTS LPS-specific maternal antibodies to infants was highly efficient. Waning of transplacentally acquired NTS LPS-specific antibodies at 4 months of age left infants susceptible to Salmonella organisms, after which they began to seroconvert. High seroincidences of S. Typhimurium and S. Enteritidis LPS were observed, and infants born with higher anti-LPS titers had greater plasma bactericidal activity and longer protection from seroconversion. CONCLUSIONS: Although Vietnamese infants have extensive exposure to NTS, maternally acquired antibodies appear to play a protective role against NTS infections during early infancy. These findings suggest that prenatal immunization may be an appropriate strategy to protect vulnerable infants from NTS disease

Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of sociohydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001)

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Product diversification from pomelo peel. Essential oil, Pectin and semi-dried pomelo peel

Currently, agriculture has shifted to green production, in which the recycling of post-production by-products is a key issue. In the present work, by-products such as pomelos were studied to promote consumption and enhance the value of pomelo. From pomelo material, essential oils extracted from pomelo peels, pectin, and drying pomelo products have been diversifi ed. In the extraction process of essential oils, the hydrodistillation method was applied in conjunction with the response surface method to obtain the optimal conditions of infl uence factors. These essential oils were quantifi ed as well as determined for components by GC-MS. The pectin recognition process was done by immersion method in HCl acid (pH 2) and the drying process was made with a heat pump dryer under the effects of drying temperature, drying time and wind rate. The results of the essential oil products reached the highest (0.88 ±0.006 g) at the material size of 3 mm, the distillation time of 27 min, and the ratio of raw materials/solvents of 1/12 g/mL. The main components found in pomelo peeling essential oils included limonene (71.768%), γ-terponene (12,847%), α-Phellandrene (2.979%), β-myrcene (2.668%), 1R-α-pinene (2,656%), and β-pinene (1,191%). The pectin content was the highest under the temperature of 90 oC, extraction time of 60 min and ratio/solvent ratio of 1:32 g/mL. Under these extraction conditions, 48% of concentrated pectin content was obtained. Surveying conditions for drying white pomelo peels are capable of reversing: refunded drying pomelos are drying heat pumps in the following conditions: 50 oC drying temperature, the drying time of 90 min, and wind rate of 12 m/s. Product with hardness 309.862 N