Impacts of Climate Change on transport: a focus on road and rail transport infrastructures

This report provides a general EU-wide outlook about the future vulnerability of transport to climate change with a focus on the road and rail transport and their infrastructures. It also analyses some specific adaptations measures, illustrating key issues to be considered for policy making. It represents a first JRC/IPTS scientific contribution to the analysis of future impacts of climate change on the transport system in Europe, and has been conducted in the framework of the JRC PESETAII project. Depending on future global warming and the region in Europe, transport modes and system components could be affected by one or several simultaneous changes in the climate conditions, including hotter summer conditions, extreme precipitation events, increased storminess and sea level rise. If such impacts are not anticipated in future transport infrastructure design and maintenance, those changing weather conditions could, in some regions, accelerate their deterioration, increase severe damages risks, traffic interruption and accidents which could, on their turn, affect economic activities. This research project has drawn some future trends regarding changing exposure of road and rail infrastructures to weather-induced risk under climate change, considering two future time intervals (2040-2070 and 2070-2100), future infrastructure deterioration and damage costs and costs associated with some selected adaptation cases.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Contribution of the transport sector to the objective of the Effort Sharing Decision on non Emission Trading System sectors greenhouse gas emissions

The Decision 406/2009/EC on effort sharing aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from sectors not covered by the EU Emission Trading System. These non-ETS sectors include (non aviation) transport, buildings, agriculture and waste. The Decision establishes national emission targets below which each Member State is committed to limit its non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. This report analyses the possible contribution of the transport sector in the Effort Sharing Decision targets at Member State level and at EU level. The analysis is based on the TREMOVE model scenarios, including sensitivity cases on GDP and oil price. According to the most recent scenario, at aggregated EU27 level, the transport sector (excluding aviation) would contribute to a -28 Mton CO2 emission reduction by 2020 compared with 2005. This represents about 10% of the non-ETS sector emission reduction target at EU27 level. At Member State level, the expected contribution is in a very wide range.JRC.J.1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

Environmental Improvement Potential of Residential Buildings

This report on ¿Environmental improvement potential of residential buildings¿ is a JRC's scientific contribution to the European Commission¿s Integrated Product Policy framework which seeks to minimise the environmental degradation caused the life cycle of products. A previous study coordinated by the JRC (EIPRO study) had shown that building occupancy and structure all together make up 20 to 35% of the impacts of all products for most impact categories. This report presents a systematic overview of the environmental life cycle impacts of residential buildings in EU-25. It also provides an analysis of the technical improvement options that could be help reducing these environmental impacts, with a special focus to their main source, namely energy use for space heating. The report assesses the environmental benefits and the costs associated with these improvement options.JRC.J.2-Competitiveness and Sustainabilit

Tracking construction material over space and time: Prospective and geo-referenced modeling of building stocks and construction material flows

Construction material plays an increasingly important role in the environmental impacts of buildings. In order to investigate impacts of materials on a building level, we present a bottom-up building stock model that uses three dimensional and geo-referenced building data to determine volumetric information of material stocks in Swiss residential buildings. We used a probabilistic modeling approach to calculate future material flows for the individual buildings. We investigated six scenarios with different assumptions concerning per capita floor area, building stock turnover, and construction material. The Swiss building stock will undergo important structural changes by 2035. While this will lead to a reduced number in new constructions, material flows will increase. Total material inflow decreases by almost half while outflows double. In 2055 the total amount of material in- and outflows are almost equal, which represents an important opportunity to close construction material cycles. Total environmental impacts due to production and disposal of construction material remain relatively stable over time. The cumulated impact is slightly reduced for the wood-based scenario. The scenario with more insulation material leads to slightly higher material-related emissions. An increase per capita floor area or material turnover will lead to a considerable increase in impacts. The new modeling approach overcomes the limitations of previous bottom-up building models and allows for investigating building material flows and stocks in space and time. This supports the development of tailored strategies to reduce the material footprint and environmental impacts of buildings and settlements.ISSN:1088-1980ISSN:1530-929

B stars as a diagnostic of star-formation at low and high redshift

We have extended the evolutionary synthesis models by Leitherer et al. (1999b) by including a new library of B stars generated from the IUE high-dispersion spectra archive. We present the library and show how the stellar spectral properties vary according to luminosity classes and spectral types. We have generated synthetic UV spectra for prototypical young stellar populations varying the IMF and the star formation law. Clear signs of age effects are seen in all models. The contribution of B stars in the UV line spectrum is clearly detected, in particular for greater ages when O stars have evolved. With the addition of the new library we are able to investigate the fraction of stellar and interstellar contributions and the variation in the spectral shapes of intense lines. We have used our models to date the spectrum of the local super star cluster NGC1705-1. Photospheric lines of CIII1247, SiIII1417, and SV1502 were used as diagnostics to date the burst of NGC 1705-1 at 10 Myr. We have selected the star-forming galaxy 1512-cB58 as a first application of the new models to high-z galaxies. This galaxy is at z=2.723, it is gravitationally lensed, and its high signal-to-noise Keck spectrum show features typical of local starburst galaxies, such as NGC 1705-1. Models with continuous star formation were found to be more adequate for 1512-cB58 since there are spectral features typical of a composite stellar population of O and B stars. A model with Z =0.4Z_solar and an IMF with alpha=2.8 reproduces the stellar features of the 1512-cB58 spectrum.Comment: 23 pages with figures, see http://sol.stsci.edu/~demello/welcomeb.htm

Developing archetypes for domestic dwellings : An Irish case study

Stock modelling, based on representative archetypes, is a promising tool for exploring areas for resource and emission reductions in the residential sector. The use of archetypes developed using detailed statistical analysis (multi-linear regression analysis, clustering and descriptive statistics) rather than traditional qualitative techniques allows a more accurate representation of the overall building stock variability in terms of geometric form, constructional materials and operation. This paper presents a methodology for the development of archetypes based on information from literature and a sample of detailed energy-related housing data. The methodology involves a literature review of studies to identify the most important variables which explain energy use and regression analysis of a housing database to identify the most relevant variables associated with energy consumption. A statistical analysis of the distributions for each key variable was used to identify representative parameters. Corresponding construction details were chosen based on knowledge of housing construction details. Clustering analysis was used to identify coincident groups of parameters and construction details; this led to the identification of 13 representative archetypes

Satellite-derived Time for Enhanced Telecom Networks Synchronization: the ROOT Project

Satellite-derived timing information plays a determinant role in the provisioning of an absolute time reference to telecommunications networks, as well as in a growing set of other critical infrastructures. In light of the stringent requirements in terms of time, frequency, and phase synchronization foreseen in upcoming access network architectures (i.e., 5G), Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers are expected to ensure enhanced accuracy and reliability not only in positioning but also in timing. High-end GNSS timing receivers combined with terrestrial cesium clocks and specific transport protocols can indeed satisfy such synchronization requirements by granting sub-nanosecond accuracy. As a drawback, the network infrastructure can be exposed to accidental interferences and intentional cyber-attacks. Within this framework, the ROOT project investigates the effectiveness and robustness of innovative countermeasures to GNSS and cybersecurity threats within a reference network architecture

Feebate and Scrappage Policy Instruments - Environmental and Economic Impacts for the EU27

This report presents the results and conclusions of a research carried out by the JRC/IPTS analysing two demand-side measures that can help improving the environmental performance of cars: The first instrument, the feebate system, is a way to differentiate the registration tax according to the CO2 emissions from cars. The second instrument, the scrappage policy is intended to encourage the owners of old cars to scrap their car earlier. The potential and consequences of technical options to reduce car weight are also analysed. The report builds a comprehensive assessment of these policy options at EU level, covering all major environmental life cycle impacts and the different economic impacts. The report is built upon IPTS research work, supported with a study subcontracted to a research consortium led by Transport&Mobility Leuven (TML) and involving Öko-Institut and ISI-Fraunhofer.JRC.J.2-The economics of climate change, energy and transpor

Farmers perceptions of climate change related events in Shendam and Riyom, Nigeria

Although agriculture in Nigeria is the major source of income for about 70% of the active population, the impact of agrarian infrastructure on boosting productivity and supporting livelihoods has increased. Climate change and the increasing trend of climate-related events in Nigeria challenge both the stability of agrarian infrastructure and livelihood systems. Based on case studies of two local communities in Plateau state in Nigeria, this paper utilizes a range of perceptions to examine the impacts of climate-related events on agrarian infrastructures and how agrarian livelihood systems are, in turn, affected. Data are obtained from a questionnaire survey (n = 175 farmers) and semi-structured interviews (n = 14 key informants). The study identifies local indicators of climate change, high risks climate events and the components of agrarian infrastructures that are at risk from climate events. Findings reveal that, changes in rainfall and temperature patterns increase the probability of floods and droughts. They also reveal that, although locational differences account for the high impact of floods on road transport systems and droughts on irrigation infrastructures, both have a chain of negative effects on agricultural activities, economic activities and livelihood systems. A binomial logistic regression model is used to predict the perceived impact levels of floods and droughts, while an in-depth analysis is utilized to corroborate the quantitative results. The paper further stresses the need to strengthen the institutional capacity for risk reduction through the provision of resilient infrastructures, as the poor conditions of agrarian infrastructure were identified as dominant factors on the high impact levels