Distribution and Risk Factors of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Mainland China

Data from all reported cases of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of cases were characterized through spatial analysis. The impact of travel-related risk factors on invasion of the disease was analyzed using survival analysis, and climatic factors related to local transmission were identified using multilevel Poisson regression, both at the county level. The results showed that the epidemic spanned a large geographic area, with the most affected areas being in western China. Significant differences in incidence were found among age groups, with incidences peaking in school-age children. Overall, the epidemic spread from southeast to northwest. Proximity to airports and being intersected by national highways or freeways but not railways were variables associated with the presence of the disease in a county. Lower temperature and lower relative humidity were the climatic factors facilitating local transmission after correction for the effects of school summer vacation and public holidays, as well as population density and the density of medical facilities. These findings indicate that interventions focused on domestic travel, population density, and climatic factors could play a role in mitigating the public health impact of future influenza pandemics

Capability of meteorological drought indices for detecting soil moisture droughts

Study region Eastern Australia Study focus Long-term monitoring of soil moisture is a time- and cost-intensive challenge. Therefore, meteorological drought indices are commonly used proxies of periods of significant soil moisture deficit. However, the question remains whether soil moisture droughts can be adequately characterised using meteorological variables such as rainfall and potential evaporation, or whether a more physically based approach is required. We applied two commonly used drought indices – the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Reconnaissance Drought Index – to evaluate their performance against soil moisture droughts simulated with the numerical soil water model Hydrus-1D. The performance of the two indices was measured in terms of their correlation with the standardised simulated monthly minimum soil water pressures, and their capability to detect soil moisture droughts that are potentially critical for plant water stress. New hydrological insights for the region For three typical soil types and climate zones in Eastern Australia, and for two soil profiles, we have found a significant correlation between the indices and soil moisture droughts detected by Hydrus-1D. The failure rates and false alarm rates for detecting the simulated soil moisture droughts were generally below 50% for both indices and both soil profiles (the Reconnaissance Drought Index at Melbourne was the only exception). However, the complexity of Hydrus-1D and the uncertainty associated with the available, regionalised soil water retention curves encourage using the indices over Hydrus-1D in absence of appropriate soil moisture monitoring data

Annual climate assessment.

Description based on: 5th (1993).Mode of access: Internet.Prepared by: the Climate Analysis Center.Electronic serial mode of access: World Wide Web

National Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template for Action

The implementation of a drought policy based on the philosophy of risk reduction can alter a nation’s approach to drought management by reducing the associated impacts (risk). This was the idea that motivated the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Secretariat of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in collaboration with a number of UN agencies, international and regional organizations, and key national agencies, to organize the Highlevel Meeting on National Drought Policy (HMNDP), which was held in Geneva from 11 to 15 March 2013. The theme of the HMNDP was ‘Reducing Societal Vulnerability – Helping Society (Communities and Sectors)’. The spiralling impacts of drought on a growing number of sectors is cause for significant concern. No longer is drought primarily associated with the loss or reduction of agricultural production. Today, the occurrence of drought is also associated with significant impacts in the energy, transportation, health, recreation/tourism and other sectors. Equally important is the direct impact of water shortages on water, energy and food security. With the current and projected increases in the incidence of drought frequency, severity and duration as a result of climate change, the time to move forward with a paradigm shift from crisis to risk management is now. This approach is directed at improving the resilience or coping capacity of nations to drought. The outcomes and recommendations emanating from the HMNDP are drawing increased attention to this issue from governments, international and regional organizations, and non-governmental organizations. One of the specific outcomes of the HMNDP was the launch of the the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP) by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and and the Global Water Partnership (GWP). The IDMP is addressing these concerns with a number of partners with the objective of supporting stakeholders at all levels by providing them with policy and management guidance through globally coordinated generation of scientific information and sharing best practices and knowledge for integrated drought management. The IDMP especially seeks to support regions and countries to develop more proactive drought policies and better predictive mechanisms and these guidelines are a contribution to this end