A typology of different development and testing options for symbolic regression modelling of measured and calculated datasets

AbstractData-driven modelling is used to develop two alternative types of predictive environmental model: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed from either a conceptual understanding of physical relations and/or using measured records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. A simple four-way typology called Emulation Simulation Typology (EST) is proposed that distinguishes between (i) model type and (ii) different uses of model development period and model test period datasets. To address the question of to what extent simulator and emulator solutions might be considered interchangeable i.e. provide similar levels of output accuracy when tested on data different from that used in their development, a pair of counterpart pan evaporation models was created using symbolic regression. Each model type delivered similar levels of predictive skill to that other of published solutions. Input–output sensitivity analysis of the two different model types likewise confirmed two very similar underlying response functions. This study demonstrates that the type and quality of data on which a model is tested, has a greater influence on model accuracy assessment, than the type and quality of data on which a model is developed, providing that the development record is sufficiently representative of the conceptual underpinnings of the system being examined. Thus, previously reported substantial disparities occurring in goodness-of-fit statistics for pan evaporation models are most likely explained by the use of either measured or calculated data to test particular models, where lower scores do not necessarily represent major deficiencies in the solution itself

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in urban soils of Greater London, UK

Surface soils from a 19 km2 area in east London, UK were analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) (n = 76). ∑16 PAH ranged from 4 to 67 mg/kg (mean, 18 mg/kg) and ∑50 PAH ranged from 6 to 88 mg/kg (mean, 25 mg/kg). ∑7 PCB ranged from 1 to 750 μg/kg (mean, 22 μg/kg) and ∑tri-hepta PCB ranged 9 to 2600 μg/kg (mean, 120 μg/kg). Compared to other international cities concentrations were similar for PAH but higher for PCB. Normal background concentrations (NBC) were calculated and compared to risk-based human health generic assessment criteria (GAC). Benzo[a]pyrene NBC for urban (6.9 mg/kg), semi-urban (4.4 mg/kg) and urban + semi urban (6 mg/kg) domains exceed residential (1 mg/kg) and allotment (2.2 mg/kg) LQM/CIEH GAC (at 6% SOM) and the Indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene NBC for urban (6.8 mg/kg) and urban + semi-urban (5.2 mg/kg) domains exceed the residential (4.2 mg/kg) LQM/CIEH GAC (at 6% SOM). Capsule Abstract: Normal background concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls are elevated in east London soils and in some cases exceed regulatory assessment criteria

Soil-sebum partition coefficients for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HMW-PAH)

In vitro high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HMW-PAH) soil-sebum partition coefficients (KSS) were measured for twelve soils collected from former UK gasworks. Concentrations of ∑16 USEPA PAH in the soils ranged from 51 to 1440 mg/kg. Time series extractions (0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 24 h) at skin temperature (32 °C) of HMW-PAH from sebum to soil for two samples were conducted to determine the maximum release time-step. The maximum HMW-PAH release time-step was determined as 4 h, which was subsequently used as the extraction time for the remaining samples. The 4 h extraction for all samples showed HMW-PAH KSS ranging from 0.06 to 1.4 (median = 0.59; mean = 0.59; standard deviation = 0.27; median absolute deviation = 0.29). Evaluation of KSS data for the 4 h extractions showed that soil type and selected HMW-PAH properties (literature based molecular weight and octanol-carbon partition coefficients) affect the amount of HMW-PAH released from soil into sebum

State-of-the-art energetic and morphological modelling of the launching site of the M87 jet

M87 has been the target of numerous astronomical observations across the electromagnetic spectrum, and very long baseline interferometry has resolved an edge-brightened jet1,2,3,4. However, the origin and formation of its jets remain unclear. In our current understanding, black holes (BH) are the driving engine of jet formation5, and indeed the recent Event Horizon Telescope observations revealed a ring-like structure in agreement with theoretical models of accretion onto a rotating Kerr BH6. In addition to the spin of the BH being a potential source of energy for the launching mechanism, magnetic fields are believed to play a key role in the formation of relativistic jets7,8. A priori, the spin, a⋆, of the BH in M87⋆ is unknown; however, when accounting for the estimates of the X-ray luminosity and jet power, values of |a_{*}| ≳ 0.5 appear favoured6. Besides the properties of the accretion flow and the BH spin, the radiation microphysics including the particle distribution (thermal6 and non-thermal^{9,10}) as well as the particle acceleration mechanism11 play a crucial role. We show that general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations and general relativistic radiative transfer calculations can reproduce the broadband spectrum from the radio to the near-infrared regime and simultaneously match the observed collimation profile of M87, thus allowing us to set rough constraints on the dimensionless spin of M87* to be 0.5 ≲ a⋆ ≲ 1.0, with higher spins being possibly favoured

Quality of service in public transport based on customer satisfaction surveys: A review and assessment of methodological approaches

The growth of literature in the field of quality of service in the public transport (PT) sector shows increasing concern for a better understanding of the factors affecting service quality (SQ) in PT organizations and companies. A large variety of approaches to SQ has been developed in recent years owing to the complexity of the concept; the broad range of attributes required to evaluate SQ; and the imprecision, subjectivity and heterogeneous nature of the data used to analyse it. Most of these approaches are based on customer satisfaction surveys. This paper seeks to summarize the evolution of research and current thinking as it relates to the different methodological approaches for SQ evaluation in the PT sector over the years, and provides a discussion of future directions.This study is sponsored by the Conserjería de Innovación, Ciencia y Economía of the Junta de Andalucía (Spain) through the Excellence Research Project denominated “Q-METROBUS-Quality of service indicator for METROpolitan public BUS transport services”

China's soil and groundwater management challenges: Lessons from the UK's experience and opportunities for China

There are a number of specific opportunities for UK and China to work together on contaminated land management issues as China lacks comprehensive and systematic planning for sustainable risk based land management, encompassing both contaminated soil and groundwater and recycling and reuse of soil. It also lacks comprehensive risk assessment systems, structures to support risk management decision making, processes for verification of remediation outcome, systems for record keeping and preservation and integration of contamination issues into land use planning, along with procedures for ensuring effective health and safety considerations during remediation projects, and effective evaluation of costs versus benefits and overall sustainability. A consequence of the absence of these overarching frameworks has been that remediation takes place on an ad hoc basis. At a specific site management level, China lacks capabilities in site investigation and consequent risk assessment systems, in particular related to conceptual modelling and risk evaluation. There is also a lack of shared experience of practical deployment of remediation technologies in China, analogous to the situation before the establishment of the independent, non-profit organisation CL:AIRE (Contaminated Land: Applications In Real Environments) in 1999 in the UK. Many local technology developments are at lab-scale or pilot-scale stage without being widely put into use. Therefore, a shared endeavour is needed to promote the development of technically and scientifically sound land management as well as soil and human health protection to improve the sustainability of the rapid urbanisation in China

The Photon Ring in M87*

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image—the first in an infinite series of so-called “photon rings”—around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of 4.20 − 0.06 + 0.12 μ as and a corresponding black hole mass of (7.13 \ub1 0.39) 7 109 M ⊙, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*

First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VII. Polarization of the Ring

In 2017 April, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observed the near-horizon region around the supermassive black hole at the core of the M87 galaxy. These 1.3 mm wavelength observations revealed a compact asymmetric ring-like source morphology. This structure originates from synchrotron emission produced by relativistic plasma located in the immediate vicinity of the black hole. Here we present the corresponding linear-polarimetric EHT images of the center of M87. We find that only a part of the ring is significantly polarized. The resolved fractional linear polarization has a maximum located in the southwest part of the ring, where it rises to the level of similar to 15%. The polarization position angles are arranged in a nearly azimuthal pattern. We perform quantitative measurements of relevant polarimetric properties of the compact emission and find evidence for the temporal evolution of the polarized source structure over one week of EHT observations. The details of the polarimetric data reduction and calibration methodology are provided. We carry out the data analysis using multiple independent imaging and modeling techniques, each of which is validated against a suite of synthetic data sets. The gross polarimetric structure and its apparent evolution with time are insensitive to the method used to reconstruct the image. These polarimetric images carry information about the structure of the magnetic fields responsible for the synchrotron emission. Their physical interpretation is discussed in an accompanying publication

The Event Horizon Telescope Image of the Quasar NRAO 530

We report on the observations of the quasar NRAO 530 with the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) on 2017 April 5−7, when NRAO 530 was used as a calibrator for the EHT observations of Sagittarius A*. At z = 0.902, this is the most distant object imaged by the EHT so far. We reconstruct the first images of the source at 230 GHz, at an unprecedented angular resolution of ∼20 μas, both in total intensity and in linear polarization (LP). We do not detect source variability, allowing us to represent the whole data set with static images. The images reveal a bright feature located on the southern end of the jet, which we associate with the core. The feature is linearly polarized, with a fractional polarization of ∼5%-8%, and it has a substructure consisting of two components. Their observed brightness temperature suggests that the energy density of the jet is dominated by the magnetic field. The jet extends over 60 μas along a position angle ∼ −28°. It includes two features with orthogonal directions of polarization (electric vector position angle), parallel and perpendicular to the jet axis, consistent with a helical structure of the magnetic field in the jet. The outermost feature has a particularly high degree of LP, suggestive of a nearly uniform magnetic field. Future EHT observations will probe the variability of the jet structure on microarcsecond scales, while simultaneous multiwavelength monitoring will provide insight into the high-energy emission origin