A typology of different development and testing options for symbolic regression modelling of measured and calculated datasets

AbstractData-driven modelling is used to develop two alternative types of predictive environmental model: a simulator, a model of a real-world process developed from either a conceptual understanding of physical relations and/or using measured records, and an emulator, an imitator of some other model developed on predicted outputs calculated by that source model. A simple four-way typology called Emulation Simulation Typology (EST) is proposed that distinguishes between (i) model type and (ii) different uses of model development period and model test period datasets. To address the question of to what extent simulator and emulator solutions might be considered interchangeable i.e. provide similar levels of output accuracy when tested on data different from that used in their development, a pair of counterpart pan evaporation models was created using symbolic regression. Each model type delivered similar levels of predictive skill to that other of published solutions. Input–output sensitivity analysis of the two different model types likewise confirmed two very similar underlying response functions. This study demonstrates that the type and quality of data on which a model is tested, has a greater influence on model accuracy assessment, than the type and quality of data on which a model is developed, providing that the development record is sufficiently representative of the conceptual underpinnings of the system being examined. Thus, previously reported substantial disparities occurring in goodness-of-fit statistics for pan evaporation models are most likely explained by the use of either measured or calculated data to test particular models, where lower scores do not necessarily represent major deficiencies in the solution itself

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in urban soils of Greater London, UK

Surface soils from a 19 km2 area in east London, UK were analysed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) (n = 76). ∑16 PAH ranged from 4 to 67 mg/kg (mean, 18 mg/kg) and ∑50 PAH ranged from 6 to 88 mg/kg (mean, 25 mg/kg). ∑7 PCB ranged from 1 to 750 μg/kg (mean, 22 μg/kg) and ∑tri-hepta PCB ranged 9 to 2600 μg/kg (mean, 120 μg/kg). Compared to other international cities concentrations were similar for PAH but higher for PCB. Normal background concentrations (NBC) were calculated and compared to risk-based human health generic assessment criteria (GAC). Benzo[a]pyrene NBC for urban (6.9 mg/kg), semi-urban (4.4 mg/kg) and urban + semi urban (6 mg/kg) domains exceed residential (1 mg/kg) and allotment (2.2 mg/kg) LQM/CIEH GAC (at 6% SOM) and the Indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene NBC for urban (6.8 mg/kg) and urban + semi-urban (5.2 mg/kg) domains exceed the residential (4.2 mg/kg) LQM/CIEH GAC (at 6% SOM). Capsule Abstract: Normal background concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and polychlorinated biphenyls are elevated in east London soils and in some cases exceed regulatory assessment criteria

Soil-sebum partition coefficients for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HMW-PAH)

In vitro high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (HMW-PAH) soil-sebum partition coefficients (KSS) were measured for twelve soils collected from former UK gasworks. Concentrations of ∑16 USEPA PAH in the soils ranged from 51 to 1440 mg/kg. Time series extractions (0.5, 1, 2, 4, 8 and 24 h) at skin temperature (32 °C) of HMW-PAH from sebum to soil for two samples were conducted to determine the maximum release time-step. The maximum HMW-PAH release time-step was determined as 4 h, which was subsequently used as the extraction time for the remaining samples. The 4 h extraction for all samples showed HMW-PAH KSS ranging from 0.06 to 1.4 (median = 0.59; mean = 0.59; standard deviation = 0.27; median absolute deviation = 0.29). Evaluation of KSS data for the 4 h extractions showed that soil type and selected HMW-PAH properties (literature based molecular weight and octanol-carbon partition coefficients) affect the amount of HMW-PAH released from soil into sebum

Integrating Slacks-based Measure of Efficiency and Super-efficiency in Data Envelopment Analysis

In this paper, we develop an integrated model for slacks- based measure (SBM) simultaneously of both the efficiency and the super-efficiency for decision-making units (DMUs) in data envelopment analysis (DEA). Unlike the traditional solution approaches in which we need to identify the efficient DMUs by the SBM model of Tone [20] before applying the super SBM model of Tone [21] for the DMUs to achieve their super-effciency scores, our integration can obtain the efficiency scores of the infficient DMUs and the super-efficiency scores of the efficient DMUs by solving simultaneously these two models by an onestage approach. Therefore, it may save computational time for large-scale practical applications. Due to the non-linearity in the objective function of this integrated model, we develop a linearisation technique to deal with the non-linear model. The numerical experiments, carried out on several examples in the literature and a case study, have demonstrated the accuracy and the computational time effectiveness of our proposed model as compared with the traditional solution approache

Resident's preferences for urban brownfield revitalization: Insights from two Czech cities.

Residents’ preferences are one of the factors in deciding how brownfields should be revitalized. We compare the views of residents in a city with many brownfields (Karviná) with those in a city with only few brownfields (České Budějovice). We assessed the preferences of residents for four global regeneration alternatives (refurbishment, demolition, open space, (re)development) in three different areas of a city (city centre, inner city, city outskirts). A one percent population sample of two post-socialistic cities in the Czech Republic, was used for the comparison. Positive preferences towards brownfield regeneration were confirmed. We found spatial differences in preferences between refurbishment and demolition of brownfields in each city area: demolition was preferred for inner city brownfields whereas refurbishment was preferred in the city centre and outskirts. Differences were also identified between the two cities: residents of the brownfield rich city preferred demolition, whereas residents of the city with few brownfields preferred refurbishment. Creating new public open space, for residents′ recreation, was given a lower importance within the city centre and a higher significance in outskirts. With the support of a combined ANOVA model, significant differences in residents’ preferences were found for distinct types of regeneration with regards to the cities’ character, the location of brownfields within the city and residents′ proximity

Chemical pollution: a growing peril and potential catastrophic risk to humanity

Anthropogenic chemical pollution has the potential to pose one of the largest environmental threats to humanity, but global understanding of the issue remains fragmented. This article presents a comprehensive perspective of the threat of chemical pollution to humanity, emphasising male fertility, cognitive health and food security. There are serious gaps in our understanding of the scale of the threat and the risks posed by the dispersal, mixture and recombination of chemicals in the wider environment. Although some pollution control measures exist they are often not being adopted at the rate needed to avoid chronic and acute effects on human health now and in coming decades. There is an urgent need for enhanced global awareness and scientific scrutiny of the overall scale of risk posed by chemical usage, dispersal and disposal

Quality of service in public transport based on customer satisfaction surveys: A review and assessment of methodological approaches

The growth of literature in the field of quality of service in the public transport (PT) sector shows increasing concern for a better understanding of the factors affecting service quality (SQ) in PT organizations and companies. A large variety of approaches to SQ has been developed in recent years owing to the complexity of the concept; the broad range of attributes required to evaluate SQ; and the imprecision, subjectivity and heterogeneous nature of the data used to analyse it. Most of these approaches are based on customer satisfaction surveys. This paper seeks to summarize the evolution of research and current thinking as it relates to the different methodological approaches for SQ evaluation in the PT sector over the years, and provides a discussion of future directions.This study is sponsored by the Conserjería de Innovación, Ciencia y Economía of the Junta de Andalucía (Spain) through the Excellence Research Project denominated “Q-METROBUS-Quality of service indicator for METROpolitan public BUS transport services”

Soil and land use research in Europe: lessons learned from INSPIRATION bottom-up strategic research agenda setting

We introduce the INSPIRATION bottom-up approach for the development of a strategic research agenda for spatial planning, land use and soil-sediment-water-system management in Europe. Research and innovation needs were identified by more than 500 European funders, endusers, scientists, policy makers, public administrators and consultants. We report both on the concept and on the implementation of the bottom-up approach, provide a critique of the process and draw key lessons for the development of research agendas in the future. Based on identified strengths and weaknesses we identified as key opportunities and threats 1) a high ranking and attentiveness for the research topics on the political agenda, in press and media or in public awareness, 2) availability of funding for research, 3) the resources available for creating the agenda itself, 4) the role of the sponsor of the agenda development, and 5) the continuity of stakeholder engagement as bases for identification of windows of opportunity, creating ownership for the agenda and facilitating its implementation. Our derived key recommendations are 1) a clear definition of the area for which the agenda is to be developed and for the targeted user, 2) a conceptual model to structure the agenda, 3) making clear the expected roles, tasks, input formats regarding the involvement and communication with the stakeholders and project partners, 4) a sufficient number of iterations and checks of the agenda with stakeholders to insure completeness, relevance and creation of co-ownership for the agenda, and 5) from the beginning prepare the infrastructure for the network to implement the agenda

Persistent Organic Pollutants in Urban Soils of Central London, England, UK: Measurement and Spatial Modelling of Black Carbon (BC), Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH), Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH) and Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCB)

Total organic carbon (TOC), black carbon (BC), total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) were determined in 73 surface (0-2 cm) and subsurface (5-20 cm) soil samples taken from a 142 km2 area in Central London, UK. Soils were assessed to provide a baseline chemistry for site owners, developers, occupiers and regulators involved in understanding the potential risk to human health and the environment. TOC range was 1.75-11.85 % (mean 5.82 %), BC 3.72-32.71 mg.g-1 (mean 13.8 mg.g-1), TPH 72-4673 mg.g-1 (mean 443 mg.g-1), Σ16PAH 1.64-421.23 mg.g-1 (mean 47.99 mg.g-1) and Σ7PCB 2.56-148.72 µg.kg-1 (mean 20.82 µg.kg-1). Surface soils were less polluted than sub-surface soils due to a decline in industry, power generation, coal burning and traffic. PAH and PCB showed a stronger affinity for BC than TOC and were higher than many other international cities. South east London (Greenwich, Woolwich, Deptford) had the highest PAH pollution. Source PAH ratios confirmed a combustion/urban road run-off origin with minor petroleum inputs. Random Forest spatial modelling (machine learning) revealed large scale pollution trends across London soils. Normal background concentrations (NBC) were calculated and compared to risk-based human health generic assessment criteria (GAC). Benz[a]anthracene, benzo[a]pyrene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, and dibenzo[a]anthracene exceeded the Land Quality Management GACs for three land uses (residential, allotments and public open space near residential housing). The NBC determined for ∑7PCBs (110 µg.kg-1) and dioxin-like PCB 118 (59 µg.kg-1) exceeded the residential and allotment soil guideline values

The Photon Ring in M87*

We report measurements of the gravitationally lensed secondary image—the first in an infinite series of so-called “photon rings”—around the supermassive black hole M87* via simultaneous modeling and imaging of the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) observations. The inferred ring size remains constant across the seven days of the 2017 EHT observing campaign and is consistent with theoretical expectations, providing clear evidence that such measurements probe spacetime and a striking confirmation of the models underlying the first set of EHT results. The residual diffuse emission evolves on timescales comparable to one week. We are able to detect with high significance a southwestern extension consistent with that expected from the base of a jet that is rapidly rotating in the clockwise direction. This result adds further support to the identification of the jet in M87* with a black hole spin-driven outflow, launched via the Blandford-Znajek process. We present three revised estimates for the mass of M87* based on identifying the modeled thin ring component with the bright ringlike features seen in simulated images, one of which is only weakly sensitive to the astrophysics of the emission region. All three estimates agree with each other and previously reported values. Our strongest mass constraint combines information from both the ring and the diffuse emission region, which together imply a mass-to-distance ratio of 4.20 − 0.06 + 0.12 μ as and a corresponding black hole mass of (7.13 \ub1 0.39) 7 109 M ⊙, where the error on the latter is now dominated by the systematic uncertainty arising from the uncertain distance to M87*