Norms, Mobilization and Conflict: The Merowe Dam as a Case Study

This article investigates dynamics of mobilization over environmental and human rights norms in the context of undemocratic governments. We test the suggestion in norm diffusion theories that success of domestic struggles in this context depends on the level of internalization of norms brought forth by international pressure. We find that the internalization (or lack thereof) of global norms by the Government of Sudan does not explain its recognition of environmental justice claims in this case. Furthermore, the various litigation efforts pursued by affected people outside of Sudan did not influence their campaign. However, a combination of the political climate in the country and a unique political interplay between the government and a distinct group of the affected people may have led to the singular success of their campaign. We use a combination of discourse analysis, legal analysis, norms-mapping and semi-structured interviews to reach conclusions

Optimal Randomized Group Testing Algorithm to Determine the Number of Defectives

We study the problem of determining the exact number of defective items in an adaptive group testing by using a minimum number of tests. We improve the existing algorithm and prove a lower bound that shows that the number of tests in our algorithm is optimal up to small additive terms

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Sustainable Water Management in Iraq (Kurdistan) as a Challenge for Governmental Responsibility

<p>During the last few decades, a critical scarcity of water has occurred in the Middle East due to climate change and the mismanagement of water resources. The situation is complicated by the absence of an effective legislative framework at the local level as well as by the incapability and disrepute of the local water authorities. Most Iraqi citizens depend on the surface waters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which have their sources in upstream neighbouring countries. Water crises concerning the shared waters urgently require a solution at the international level. Unfortunately, Iraq has faced several wars in a row (1980–2003), which has prevented the country from establishing its institutions. The rapid increase in the population of the transboundary countries on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, and the high demands on agriculture, are accelerating water exploitation. In this paper, the present state of water management in Iraq from the viewpoint of the legislative framework, water balance, and transboundary issues will be discussed, with special attention to Kurdistan. Many legislative documents have been established or amended by the Iraqi and Kurdistan parliaments since 2003. In 2015, the Kurdistan Government Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources, in cooperation with the EU, issued a guide for environmental legislation related to all environmental components such as air, water, and soil. The recommendations on actions needed in the water management in Kurdistan will be presented; they are inspired by the Water Framework Directive (WFD) (2000/60/EC) implemented in EU member states.</p&gt

Food Loss at Retail Stores in Lebanon: A Pilot Assessment Study

While the level of Food Losses (FL) in the retail sector is relatively low compared to others, there is a rising focus on FL reduction at the retail level because practices and strategies on this level exert a significant influence on the generation of Food Loss and Waste (FLW) on both the upstream and downstream stages of the food chain. This paper explores Retail Food Loss (RFL) in Lebanon. After a literature review, a survey was designed to collect the relevant data from various sizes of retail stores. Eighty-one retail stores participated in the survey. The data collected were statistically analyzed. The results show that these retailers make purchase decisions based on consumer demand, promotions and discounts offered by supplier, and quantities of those products still available in store, with consumer demand accounting for 38,59%, promotions/discounts for 25% and remaining quantities for 22.83% of purchase decisions. Retailers identify numerous causes of RFL related to the diverse types of food commodities, however, the expiry date and the loss of freshness are seen as the main ones. To prevent losses, retailers engage in different practices e.g., 92,59% apply discounts to food products nearing their expiry dates and 90.12% of the retailers surveyed consider these strategies to be efficient. The 79% of retailers consider their losses to be low, and 14% estimate them as average. None of the respondents consider their RFL to be high, and 7% find it challenging to provide an accurate estimation of the quantities involved. Based on the findings, it is obvious that the financial crisis in Lebanon is affecting RFL with discounted prices playing a role in encouraging consumers to buy food products that might otherwise be wasted. There appears to be a deficiency in consumer comprehension pertaining to food labeling. In parallel, the estimations made by retailers concerning the magnitude of retail losses may be prone to inaccuracies and thus misleading. Consequently, increasing awareness about food labeling and handling as well as recording quantities of RFL along with their causes are crucial to begin with. Keywords: food waste and loss; retail; consumers, food system DOI: 10.7176/JEES/14-4-03 Publication date: June 30th 202

Effect of Deteriorated Seed Soaking with Different Concentrations of Gibberellin (GA3) on Germination and Seedling Growth of Two Oat (Avena sativa L.) Cultivars

A factorial experiment with two factors was carried out at the Seed Technology Lab., College of Agriculture, University of Baghdad in 2018 in order to study the effect of seed priming with gibberellic acid (GA3) (0, 100, 300 and 500 mgL-1) on germination and seedling growth of deteriorated seed of two oat cultivars (Shifaa, and Shofan11). The complete randomized design was used with four replications. The results showed that cultivars, soaking in different concentrations of GA3 and their interactions had a significant effect on studied traits. Shofan11, GA3 (500 mg L-1) and their interaction gave the highest values of germination ratio (74.1, 85 and 85%), lengths of radical (7, 8.5 and 8.6 cm) and plumule (9.3, 10.8 and 10.9 cm), fresh (71.95, 74.74 and 74.76 mg) and dry (18.41, 23.14 and 25.07 mg) weights of seedling and seedling vigour index (1270.2, 1644 and 1655.5), respectively. It can be concluded that soaking of deteriorated seed with GA3 led to increasing germination ratio and improved seedling growth in oat.  

A case of urinary bladder agenesis and bilateral ectopic ureters: a case report

Abstract Background Urinary bladder agenesis is a very rare congenital anomaly with very few cases reported in the literature. Case presentation We report a one-month-old baby presenting with ambiguous genitalia and recurrent urinary tract infections. Her clinical course was complicated by renal impairment. Magnetic resonant imaging (MRI) revealed a diagnosis of bladder agenesis with bilateral ectopic insertion of the ureters into the vagina, associated with several other anomalies. The patient underwent bilateral high anterior ureterostomies in an hospital abroad at 5.5 months of age. She then developed ureteral necrosis that had to be corrected with left pyeloplasty and by placing a left nephrostomy tube for drainage. Eventually, the patient’s renal function declined, and she developed chronic kidney disease (CKD).The case with its imaging findings and pathogenesis as well as a review of the literature are presented. Conclusions Urinary bladder agenesis is a rare congenital condition that can be associated with multiple anomalies. Early diagnosis and therapeutic intervention can prevent progression to chronic kidney disease

Influenza surveillance in Middle East, North, East and South Africa: Report of the 8th MENA Influenza Stakeholders Network

International audienc