Influence of larval transport and temperature on recruitment dynamics of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) across spatial scales of observation

© The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Romagnoni, G., Kvile, K. o., Dagestad, K., Eikeset, A. M., Kristiansen, T., Stenseth, N. C., & Langangen, O. Influence of larval transport and temperature on recruitment dynamics of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) across spatial scales of observation. Fisheries Oceanography, (2020): 1-16, doi:10.1111/fog.12474.The survival of fish eggs and larvae, and therefore recruitment success, can be critically affected by transport in ocean currents. Combining a model of early‐life stage dispersal with statistical stock–recruitment models, we investigated the role of larval transport for recruitment variability across spatial scales for the population complex of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua ). By using a coupled physical–biological model, we estimated the egg and larval transport over a 44‐year period. The oceanographic component of the model, capable of capturing the interannual variability of temperature and ocean current patterns, was coupled to the biological component, an individual‐based model (IBM) that simulated the cod eggs and larvae development and mortality. This study proposes a novel method to account for larval transport and success in stock–recruitment models: weighting the spawning stock biomass by retention rate and, in the case of multiple populations, their connectivity. Our method provides an estimate of the stock biomass contributing to recruitment and the effect of larval transport on recruitment variability. Our results indicate an effect, albeit small, in some populations at the local level. Including transport anomaly as an environmental covariate in traditional stock–recruitment models in turn captures recruitment variability at larger scales. Our study aims to quantify the role of larval transport for recruitment across spatial scales, and disentangle the roles of temperature and larval transport on effective connectivity between populations, thus informing about the potential impacts of climate change on the cod population structure in the North Sea.G.R. was supported by the Norden Top‐level Research Initiative sub‐programme “Effect Studies and Adaptation to Climate Change” through the Nordic Centre for Research on Marine Ecosystems and Resources under Climate Change (NorMER). K.Ø.K. was supported by the WHOI John H. Steele Post‐doctoral Scholar award and VISTA – a basic research program in collaboration between The Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, and Equinor. We thank an anonymous referee for valuable comments that substantially improved the article

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis