Empirical evaluation of prediction intervals for cancer incidence

BACKGROUND: Prediction intervals can be calculated for predicting cancer incidence on the basis of a statistical model. These intervals include the uncertainty of the parameter estimates and variations in future rates but do not include the uncertainty of assumptions, such as continuation of current trends. In this study we evaluated whether prediction intervals are useful in practice. METHODS: Rates for the period 1993–97 were predicted from cancer incidence rates in the five Nordic countries for the period 1958–87. In a Poisson regression model, 95% prediction intervals were constructed for 200 combinations of 20 cancer types for males and females in the five countries. The coverage level was calculated as the proportion of the prediction intervals that covered the observed number of cases in 1993–97. RESULTS: Overall, 52% (104/200) of the prediction intervals covered the observed numbers. When the prediction intervals were divided into quartiles according to the number of cases in the last observed period, the coverage level was inversely proportional to the frequency (84%, 52%, 46% and 26%). The coverage level varied widely among the five countries, but the difference declined after adjustment for the number of cases in each country. CONCLUSION: The coverage level of prediction intervals strongly depended on the number of cases on which the predictions were based. As the sample size increased, uncertainty about the adequacy of the model dominated, and the coverage level fell far below 95%. Prediction intervals for cancer incidence must therefore be interpreted with caution

Cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in England – Are we clear on cancer?

Background: Low cancer awareness may contribute to delayed diagnosis and poor cancer survival. We aimed to quantify socio-demographic differences in cancer symptom awareness and barriers to symptomatic presentation in the English population. Methods: Using a uniquely large data set (n=49?270), we examined the association of cancer symptom awareness and barriers to presentation with age, gender, marital status and socio-economic position (SEP), using logistic regression models to control for confounders. Results: The youngest and oldest, the single and participants with the lowest SEP recognised the fewest cancer symptoms, and reported most barriers to presentation. Recognition of nine common cancer symptoms was significantly lower, and embarrassment, fear and difficulties in arranging transport to the doctor’s surgery were significantly more common in participants living in the most deprived areas than in the most affluent areas. Women were significantly more likely than men to both recognise common cancer symptoms and to report barriers. Women were much more likely compared with men to report that fear would put them off from going to the doctor. Conclusions: Large and robust socio-demographic differences in recognition of some cancer symptoms, and perception of some barriers to presentation, highlight the need for targeted campaigns to encourage early presentation and improve cancer outcomes

Radiation-induced malignancies following radiotherapy for breast cancer

With advances in diagnosis and treatment, breast cancer is becoming an increasingly survivable disease resulting in a large population of long-term survivors. Factors affecting the quality of life of such patients include the consequences of breast cancer treatment, which may have involved radiotherapy. In this study, we compare the incidence of second primary cancers in women who received breast radiotherapy with that in those who did not (non-radiotherapy). All women studied received surgery for their first breast cancer. Second cancers of the lung, colon, oesophagus and thyroid gland, malignant melanomas, myeloid leukaemias and second primary breast cancers were studied. Comparing radiotherapy and non-radiotherapy cohorts, elevated relative risks (RR) were observed for lung cancer at 10-14 years and 15 or more (15+) years after initial breast cancer diagnosis (RR 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-2.54 and RR 1.49, 95% CI 1.05-2.14, respectively), and for myeloid leukaemia at 1-5 years (RR 2.99, 95% CI 1.13-9.33), for second breast cancer at 5-10 years (RR 1.34, 95% CI 1.10-1.63) and 15+ years (RR 1.26, 95% CI 1.00-1.59) and oesophageal cancer at 15+ years (RR 2.19, 95% CI 1.10-4.62)

Pleural cancer mortality in Spain: time-trends and updating of predictions up to 2020

Background A total of 2,514,346 metric tons (Mt) of asbestos were imported into Spain from 1906 until the ban on asbestos in 2002. Our objective was to study pleural cancer mortality trends as an indicator of mesothelioma mortality and update mortality predictions for the periods 2011–2015 and 2016–2020 in Spain.Methods Log-linear Poisson models were fitted to study the effect of age, period of death and birth cohort (APC) on mortality trends. Change points in cohort- and period-effect curvatures were assessed using segmented regression. Fractional power-link APC models were used to predict mortality until 2020. In addition, an alternative model based on national asbestos consumption figures was also used to perform long-term predictions.Results Pleural cancer deaths increased across the study period, rising from 491 in 1976–1980 to 1,249 in 2006–2010. Predictions for the five-year period 2016–2020 indicated a total of 1,319 pleural cancer deaths (264 deaths/year). Forecasts up to 2020 indicated that this increase would continue, though the age-adjusted rates showed a levelling-off in male mortality from 2001 to 2005, corresponding to the lower risk in post-1960 generations. Among women, rates were lower and the mortality trend was also different, indicating that occupational exposure was possibly the single factor having most influence on pleural cancer mortality.Conclusion The cancer mortality-related consequences of human exposure to asbestos are set to persist and remain in evidence until the last surviving members of the exposed cohorts have disappeared. It can thus be assumed that occupationally-related deaths due to pleural mesothelioma will continue to occur in Spain until at least 2040.The study was partially supported by a research grant from the Spanish Health Research Fund (FIS PI11/00871) and the HAR2009-07543 project of the Ministry of Science and Innovation. The Department of Labour of the Government of Catalonia provided the asbestos consumption data

Predation and infanticide influence ideal free choice by a parrot occupying heterogeneous tropical habitats

The ideal free distribution (IFD) predicts that organisms will disperse to sites that maximize their fitness based on availability of resources. Habitat heterogeneity underlies resource variation and influences spatial variation in demography and the distribution of populations. We relate nest site productivity at multiple scales measured over a decade to habitat quality in a box-nesting population of Forpus passerinus (green-rumped parrotlets) in Venezuela to examine critical IFD assumptions. Variation in reproductive success at the local population and neighborhood scales had a much larger influence on productivity (fledglings per nest box per year) than nest site or female identity. Habitat features were reliable cues of nest site quality. Nest sites with less vegetative cover produced greater numbers of fledglings than sites with more cover. However, there was also a competitive cost to nesting in high-quality, low-vegetative cover nest boxes, as these sites experienced the most infanticide events. In the lowland local population, water depth and cover surrounding nest sites were related with F. passerinus productivity. Low vegetative cover and deeper water were associated with lower predation rates, suggesting that predation could be a primary factor driving habitat selection patterns. Parrotlets also demonstrated directional dispersal. Pairs that changed nest sites were more likely to disperse from poor-quality nest sites to high-quality nest sites rather than vice versa, and juveniles were more likely to disperse to, or remain in, the more productive of the two local populations. Parrotlets exhibited three characteristics fundamental to the IFD: habitat heterogeneity within and between local populations, reliable habitat cues to productivity, and active dispersal to sites of higher fitness

Variation in the Structure of Bird Nests between Northern Manitoba and Southeastern Ontario

Traits that converge in appearance under similar environmental conditions among phylogenetically independent lineages are thought to represent adaptations to local environments. We tested for convergence in nest morphology and composition of birds breeding in two ecologically different locations in Canada: Churchill in northern Manitoba and Elgin in southeastern Ontario. We examined nests from four families of passerine birds (Turdidae: Turdus, Parulidae: Dendroica, Emberizidae: Passerculus and Fringillidae: Carduelis) where closely related populations or species breed in both locations. Nests of American Robins, Yellow Warblers, and Carduelis finches had heavier nest masses, and tended to have thicker nest-walls, in northern Manitoba compared with conspecifics or congenerics breeding in southeastern Ontario. Together, all species showed evidence for wider internal and external nest-cup diameters in northern Manitoba, while individual species showed varying patterns for internal nest-cup and external nest depths. American Robins, Yellow Warblers, and Carduelis finches in northern Manitoba achieved heavier nest masses in different ways. American Robins increased all materials in similar proportions, and Yellow Warblers and Common Redpolls used greater amounts of select materials. While changes in nest composition vary uniquely for each species, the pattern of larger nests in northern Manitoba compared to southeastern Ontario in three of our four phylogenetically-independent comparisons suggests that birds are adapting to similar selective pressures between locations

Pitfalls in genetic testing: the story of missed SCN1A mutations

BACKGROUND: Sanger sequencing, still the standard technique for genetic testing in most diagnostic laboratories and until recently widely used in research, is gradually being complemented by next-generation sequencing (NGS). No single mutation detection technique is however perfect in identifying all mutations. Therefore, we wondered to what extent inconsistencies between Sanger sequencing and NGS affect the molecular diagnosis of patients. Since mutations in SCN1A, the major gene implicated in epilepsy, are found in the majority of Dravet syndrome (DS) patients, we focused on missed SCN1A mutations. METHODS: We sent out a survey to 16 genetic centers performing SCN1A testing. RESULTS: We collected data on 28 mutations initially missed using Sanger sequencing. All patients were falsely reported as SCN1A mutation-negative, both due to technical limitations and human errors. CONCLUSION: We illustrate the pitfalls of Sanger sequencing and most importantly provide evidence that SCN1A mutations are an even more frequent cause of DS than already anticipated

Management of cryptorchidism: a survey of clinical practice in Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>An evidence-based Consensus on the treatment of undescended testis (UT) was recently published, recommending to perform orchidopexy between 6 and 12 months of age, or upon diagnosis and to avoid the use of hormones. In Italy, current practices on UT management are little known. Our aim was to describe the current management of UT in a cohort of Italian children in comparison with the Consensus guidelines. As management of retractile testis (RT) differs, RT cases were described separately.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Ours is a retrospective, multicenter descriptive study. An online questionnaire was filled in by 140 Italian Family Paediatricians (FP) from <it>Associazione Culturale Pediatri </it>(ACP), a national professional association of FP. The questionnaire requested information on all children with cryptorchidism born between 1/01/2004 and 1/01/2006. Data on 169 children were obtained. Analyses were descriptive.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall 24% of children were diagnosed with RT, 76% with UT. Among the latter, cryptorchidism resolved spontaneously in 10% of cases at a mean age of 21.6 months. Overall 70% of UT cases underwent orchidopexy at a mean age of 22.8 months (SD 10.8, range 1.2-56.4), 13% of whom before 1 year. The intervention was performed by a paediatric surgeon in 90% of cases, with a success rate of 91%. Orchidopexy was the first line treatment in 82% of cases, while preceded by hormonal treatment in the remaining 18%. Hormonal treatment was used as first line therapy in 23% of UT cases with a reported success rate of 25%. Overall, 13 children did not undergo any intervention (mean age at last follow up 39.6 months). We analyzed the data from the 5 Italian Regions with the largest number of children enrolled and found a statistically significant regional difference in the use of hormonal therapy, and in the use of and age at orchidopexy.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our study showed an important delay in orchidopexy. A quarter of children with cryptorchidism was treated with hormonal therapy. In line with the Consensus guidelines, surgery was carried out by a paediatric surgeon in the majority of cases, with a high success rate.</p

Communication : where evolutionary linguistics went wrong

In this article we offer a detailed assessment of current approaches to the origins of language, with a special focus on their historical and theoretical underpinnings. It is a widely accepted view within evolutionary linguistics that an account of the emergence of human language necessarily involves paying special attention to its communicative function and its relation to other animal communication systems. Ever since Darwin, some variant of this view has constituted the mainstream version in evolutionary linguistics; however, it is our contention in this article that this approach is seriously flawed, and that "animal communication" does not constitute a natural kind on which a sound theoretical model can be built. As a consequence, we argue that this communicative perspective is better abandoned in favor of a structural/formal approach based on the notion of homology, and that some interesting and unexpected similarities may be found by applying this venerable comparative method founded in the 19th century by Richard Owen