A decision analysis approach for optimal groundwater monitoring system design under uncertainty

International audienceGroundwater contamination is the degradation of the natural quality of groundwater as a result of human activity. Landfills are one of the most common human activities threatening the groundwater quality. The objective of the monitoring systems is to detect the contaminant plumes before reaching the regulatory compliance boundary in order to prevent the severe risk to both society and groundwater quality, and also to enable cost-effective counter measures in case of a failure. The detection monitoring problem typically has a multi-objective nature. A multi-objective decision model (called MONIDAM) which links a classic decision analysis approach with a stochastic simulation model is applied to determine the optimal groundwater monitoring system given uncertainties due to the hydrogeological conditions and contaminant source characteristics. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate uncertainties. Hydraulic conductivity and the leak location are the random inputs of the simulation model. The design objectives considered in the model are: (1) maximizing the detection probability, (2) minimizing the contaminated area and, (3) minimize the total cost of the monitoring system. The results show that the monitoring systems located close to the source are optimal except for the cases with very high unit installation and sampling cost and/or very cheap unit remediation cost

Прибыльность предприятия и стратегия ее обеспечения

Целью статьи является системное развитие теоретических, научно-методических и практических положений обеспечения прибыльности предприятия с помощью специально разработанных стратегий, которые направлены на повышение конкурентоспособности и эффективности развития предприятия, обоснование путей улучшения управления прибыльностью предприятий на основе различных исследований

Diabetes mellitus type II as a risk factor for depression: a lower than expected risk in a general practice setting

The aim of the present study was to determine whether a diagnosis of diabetes mellitus (DM) in a primary setting is associated with an increased risk of subsequent depression. A retrospective cohort design was used based on the Registration Network Family Practice (RNH) database. Patients diagnosed with diabetes mellitus at or after the age of 40 and who were diagnosed between 01-01-1980 and 01-01-2007 (N = 6,140), were compared with age-matched controls from a reference group (N = 18,416) without a history of diabetes. Both groups were followed for an emerging first diagnosis of depression (and/or depressive feelings) until January 1, 2008. 2.0% of the people diagnosed with diabetes mellitus developed a depressive disorder, compared to 1.6% of the reference group. After statistical correction for confounding factors diabetes mellitus was associated with an increased risk of developing subsequent depression (HR 1.26; 95% CI: 1.12–1.42) and/or depressive feelings (HR 1.33; 95% CI: 1.18–1.46). After statistical adjustment practice identification code, age and depression preceding diabetes, were significantly related to a diagnosis of depression. Patients with diabetes mellitus are more likely to develop subsequent depression than persons without a history of diabetes. Results from this large longitudinal study based on a general practice population indicate that this association is weaker than previously found in cross-sectional research using self-report surveys. Several explanations for this dissimilarity are discussed

Perspectives on scientific error

Theoretical arguments and empirical investigations indicate that a high proportion of published findings do not replicate and are likely false. The current position paper provides a broad perspective on scientific error, which may lead to replication failures. This broad perspective focuses on reform history and on opportunities for future reform. We organize our perspective along four main themes: institutional reform, methodological reform, statistical reform and publishing reform. For each theme, we illustrate potential errors by narrating the story of a fictional researcher during the research cycle. We discuss future opportunities for reform. The resulting agenda provides a resource to usher in an era that is marked by a research culture that is less error-prone and a scientific publication landscape with fewer spurious findings

Remifentanil patient controlled analgesia versus epidural analgesia in labour. A multicentre randomized controlled trial

Background Pain relief during labour is a topic of major interest in the Netherlands. Epidural analgesia is considered to be the most effective method of pain relief and recommended as first choice. However its uptake by pregnant women is limited compared to other western countries, partly as a result of non-availability due to logistic problems. Remifentanil, a synthetic opioid, is very suitable for patient controlled analgesia. Recent studies show that epidural analgesia is superior to remifentanil patient controlled analgesia in terms of pain intensity score; however there was no difference in satisfaction with pain relief between both treatments. Methods/design The proposed study is a multicentre randomized controlled study that assesses the cost-effectiveness of remifentanil patient controlled analgesia compared to epidural analgesia. We hypothesize that remifentanil patient controlled analgesia is as effective in improving pain appreciation scores as epidural analgesia, with lower costs and easier achievement of 24 hours availability of pain relief for women in labour and efficient pain relief for those with a contraindication for epidural analgesia. Eligible women will be informed about the study and randomized before active labour has started. Women will be randomly allocated to a strategy based on epidural analgesia or on remifentanil patient controlled analgesia when they request pain relief during labour. Primary outcome is the pain appreciation score, i.e. satisfaction with pain relief. Secondary outcome parameters are costs, patient satisfaction, pain scores (pain-intensity), mode of delivery and maternal and neonatal side effects. The economic analysis will be performed from a short-term healthcare perspective. For both strategies the cost of perinatal care for mother and child, starting at the onset of labour and ending ten days after delivery, will be registered and compared. Discussion This study, considering cost effectiveness of remifentanil as first choice analgesia versus epidural analgesia, could strongly improve the care for 180.000 women, giving birth in the Netherlands yearly by giving them access to pain relief during labour, 24 hours a day.Liv M Freeman, Kitty WM Bloemenkamp, Maureen TM Franssen, Dimitri NM Papatsonis, Petra J Hajenius, Marloes E van Huizen, Henk A Bremer, Eline SA van den Akker, Mallory D Woiski, Martina M Porath, Erik van Beek, Nico Schuitemaker, Paulien CM van der Salm, Bianca F Fong, Celine Radder, Caroline J Bax, Marko Sikkema, M Elske van den Akker-van Marle, Jan MM van Lith, Enrico Lopriore, Renske J Uildriks, Michel MRF Struys, Ben Willem J Mol, Albert Dahan, and Johanna M Middeldor

Psychological and ethical issues in third party assisted conception and surrogate motherhood

The continuing increase in babies born via third party assisted conception (AC) and surrogate motherhood across the world shows the success of and medical and social demand for third party interventions in family building. However, with the increasing use of such interventions world-wide, commercialisation and commodification have proliferated. This in turn has led to inequality in access to AC services, in choice of third party input, and in questionable human rights and psychosocial welfare issues. Transitioning to parenthood using third party AC and surrogate motherhood, in addition to requiring equality in access, also demand accuracy of birth and genetic information. In the absence of accurate record keeping, continuing practices of anonymity, and marginalization of the contribution of donors and surrogates, psychological, social, health and ethical questions are raised for donors, recipients and potentially for (genetic, gestational) part, half and full offspring, siblings and others in the extended family such as grandparents

Vascular smooth muscle cells remodel collagen matrices by long-distance action and anisotropic interaction

While matrix remodeling plays a key role in vascular physiology and pathology, the underlying mechanisms have remained incompletely understood. We studied the remodeling of collagen matrices by individual vascular smooth muscle cells (SMCs), clusters and monolayers. In addition, we focused on the contribution of transglutaminase 2 (TG2), which plays an important role in the remodeling of small arteries. Single SMCs displaced fibers in collagen matrices at distances up to at least 300 μm in the course of 8–12 h. This process involved both ‘hauling up’ of matrix by the cells and local matrix compaction at a distance from the cells, up to 200 μm. This exceeded the distance over which cellular protrusions were active, implicating the involvement of secreted enzymes such as TG2. SMC isolated from TG2 KO mice still showed compaction, with changed dynamics and relaxation. The TG active site inhibitor L682777 blocked local compaction by wild type cells, strongly reducing the displacement of matrix towards the cells. At increasing cell density, cells cooperated to establish compaction. In a ring-shaped collagen matrix, this resulted in preferential displacement in the radial direction, perpendicular to the cellular long axis. This process was unaffected by inhibition of TG2 cross-linking. These results show that SMCs are capable of matrix remodeling by prolonged, gradual compaction along their short axis. This process could add to the 3D organization and remodeling of blood vessels based on the orientation and contraction of SMCs

Neuronal network dysfunction in a model for Kleefstra syndrome mediated by enhanced NMDAR signaling

Kleefstra syndrome (KS) is a neurodevelopmental disorder caused by mutations in the histone methyltransferase EHMT1. To study the impact of decreased EHMT1 function in human cells, we generated excitatory cortical neurons from induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells derived from KS patients. Neuronal networks of patient-derived cells exhibit network bursting with a reduced rate, longer duration, and increased temporal irregularity compared to control networks. We show that these changes are mediated by upregulation of NMDA receptor (NMDAR) subunit 1 correlating with reduced deposition of the repressive H3K9me2 mark, the catalytic product of EHMT1, at the GRIN1 promoter. In mice EHMT1 deficiency leads to similar neuronal network impairments with increased NMDAR function. Finally, we rescue the KS patient-derived neuronal network phenotypes by pharmacological inhibition of NMDARs. Summarized, we demonstrate a direct link between EHMT1 deficiency and NMDAR hyperfunction in human neurons, providing a potential basis for more targeted therapeutic approaches for KS

Prevalence of human papillomavirus in Indonesia: a population-based study in three regions

Cervical cancer is the most common cancer among women in the Indonesian population, yet little is known about the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV). We investigated age-specific prevalence of HPV types and possible risk factors of HPV positivity in a population-based sample of 2686 women, aged 15–70 years, in Jakarta, Tasikmalaya, and Bali, Indonesia. The overall HPV prevalence was 11.4%, age-standardized to the world standard population 11.6%. The most prevalent types found were HPV 52, HPV 16, HPV 18, and HPV 39, respectively, 23.2, 18.0, 16.1, and 11.8% of the high-risk HPV types. In 20.7% of infections, multiple types were involved. Different age-specific prevalence patterns were seen: overall high in Jakarta, and in Tasikmalaya, and declining with age in Bali. The number of marriages was most associated with HPV positivity (OR 1.81 95% CI 1.31–2.51)). Remarkably, in Indonesia HPV 16 and HPV 18 are equally common in the general population, as they are in cervical cancer. HPV 52 was the most prevalent type in the general population, suggesting that this type should be included when prophylactic HPV vaccination is introduced in Indonesia