An artificial neural network model for rainfall forecasting in Bangkok, Thailand

This paper presents a new approach using an Artificial Neural Network technique to improve rainfall forecast performance. A real world case study was set up in Bangkok; 4 years of hourly data from 75 rain gauge stations in the area were used to develop the ANN model. The developed ANN model is being applied for real time rainfall forecasting and flood management in Bangkok, Thailand. Aimed at providing forecasts in a near real time schedule, different network types were tested with different kinds of input information. Preliminary tests showed that a generalized feedforward ANN model using hyperbolic tangent transfer function achieved the best generalization of rainfall. Especially, the use of a combination of meteorological parameters (relative humidity, air pressure, wet bulb temperature and cloudiness), the rainfall at the point of forecasting and rainfall at the surrounding stations, as an input data, advanced ANN model to apply with continuous data containing rainy and non-rainy period, allowed model to issue forecast at any moment. Additionally, forecasts by ANN model were compared to the convenient approach namely simple persistent method. Results show that ANN forecasts have superiority over the ones obtained by the persistent model. Rainfall forecasts for Bangkok from 1 to 3 h ahead were highly satisfactory. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the most important input parameter besides rainfall itself is the wet bulb temperature in forecasting rainfall

The Rigidly Rotating Magnetosphere of Sigma Ori E

We attempt to characterize the observed variability of the magnetic helium-strong star sigma Ori E in terms of a recently developed rigidly rotating magnetosphere model. This model predicts the accumulation of circumstellar plasma in two co-rotating clouds, situated in magnetohydrostatic equilibrium at the intersection between magnetic and rotational equators. We find that the model can reproduce well the periodic modulations observed in the star's light curve, H alpha emission-line profile, and longitudinal field strength, confirming that it furnishes an essentially correct, quantitative description of the star's magnetically controlled circumstellar environment.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, accepted by Ap

Focusing by blocking: repeatedly generating central density peaks in self-propelled particle systems by exploiting diffusive processes

Over the past few years the displacement statistics of self-propelled particles has been intensely studied, revealing their long-time diffusive behavior. Here, we demonstrate that a concerted combination of boundary conditions and switching on and off the self-propelling drive can generate and afterwards arbitrarily often restore a non-stationary centered peak in their spatial distribution. This corresponds to a partial reversibility of their statistical behavior, in opposition to the above-mentioned long-time diffusive nature. Interestingly, it is a diffusive process that mediates and makes possible this procedure. It should be straightforward to verify our predictions in a real experimental system.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Testing the companion hypothesis for the origin of the X-ray emission from intermediate-mass main-sequence stars

There is no straightforward explanation for intrinsic X-ray emission from intermediate-mass main-sequence stars. Therefore the observed emission is often interpreted in terms of (hypothesized) late-type magnetically active companion stars. We use Chandra imaging observations to spatially resolve in X-rays a sample of main-sequence B-type stars with recently discovered companions at arcsecond separation. We find that all spatially resolved companions are X-ray emitters, but seven out of eleven intermediate-mass stars are also X-ray sources. If this emission is interpreted in terms of additional sub-arcsecond or spectroscopic companions, this implies a high multiplicity of B-type stars. Firm results on B star multiplicity pending, the alternative, that B stars produce intrinsic X-rays, can not be discarded. The appropriate scenario in this vein is might be a magnetically confined wind, as suggested for the X-ray emission of the magnetic Ap star IQ Aur. However, the only Ap star in the Chandra sample is not detected in X-rays, and therefore does not support this picture.Comment: 12 pages; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Predictions for mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of massive O-type stars

Mass loss forms an important aspect of the evolution of massive stars, as well as for the enrichment of the surrounding ISM. Our goal is to predict accurate mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities. These quantities can be compared to empirical values, thereby testing radiation-driven wind models. One specific issue is that of the "weak-wind problem", where empirically derived mass-loss rates fall orders of magnitude short of predicted values. We employ an established Monte Carlo model and a recently suggested new line acceleration formalism to solve the wind dynamics consistently. We provide a new grid of mass-loss rates and terminal wind velocities of O stars, and compare the values to empirical results. Our models fail to provide mass-loss rates for main-sequence stars below a luminosity of log(L/Lsun) = 5.2, where we run into a fundamental limit. At luminosities below this critical value there is insufficient momentum transferred in the region below the sonic point to kick-start the acceleration. This problem occurs at the location of the onset of the weak-wind problem. For O dwarfs, the boundary between being able to start a wind, and failing to do so, is at spectral type O6/O6.5. The direct cause of this failure is a combination of the lower luminosity and a lack of Fe V lines at the wind base. This might indicate that another mechanism is required to provide the necessary driving to initiate the wind. For stars more luminous than log(L/Lsun) = 5.2, our new mass-loss rates are in excellent agreement with the mass-loss prescription by Vink et al. 2000. This implies that the main assumption entering the method of the Vink et al. prescriptions - i.e. that the momentum equation is not explicitly solved for - does not compromise the reliability of the Vink et al. results for this part of parameter space (Abridged).Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures, Astronomy & Astrophysics (in press

New findings on the prototypical Of?p stars

In recent years several in-depth investigations of the three Galactic Of?p stars were undertaken. These multiwavelength studies revealed the peculiar properties of these objects (in the X-rays as well as in the optical): magnetic fields, periodic line profile variations, recurrent photometric changes. However, many questions remain unsolved. To clarify some of the properties of the Of?p stars, we have continued their monitoring. A new XMM observation and two new optical datasets were obtained. Additional information for the prototypical Of?p trio has been found. HD108 has now reached its quiescent, minimum-emission state, for the first time in 50--60yrs. The echelle spectra of HD148937 confirm the presence of the 7d variations in the Balmer lines and reveal similar periodic variations (though of lower amplitudes) in the HeI5876 and HeII4686 lines, underlining its similarities with the other two prototypical Of?p stars. The new XMM observation of HD191612 was taken at the same phase in the line modulation cycle but at a different orbital phase as previous data. It clearly shows that the X-ray emission of HD191612 is modulated by the 538d period and not the orbital period of 1542d - it is thus not of colliding-wind origin and the phenomenon responsible for the optical changes appears also at work in the high-energy domain. There are however problems: our MHD simulations of the wind magnetic confinement predict both a harder X-ray flux of a much larger strength than what is observed (the modeled DEM peaks at 30-40MK, whereas the observed one peaks at 2MK) and narrow lines (hot gas moving with velocities of 100--200km/s, whereras the observed FWHM is ~2000km/s).Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures (2 in jpg), accepted for publication by A&

X-ray Variability in the Young Massive Triple theta2 Ori A

Massive stars rarely show intrinsic X-ray variability. The only O-stars credited to be intrinsically variable are theta1 Ori C due to effects from magnetic confinement of its wind, and theta2 Ori A suspected of similar activity. Early Chandra observations have shown that the most massive star system in the Orion Trapezium Cluster, theta2 Ori A, shows rapid variability on time scales of hours. We determine X-ray fluxes and find that the star shows very strong variability over the last 5 years. We observed a second large X-ray outburst in November 2004 with the high resolution transmission grating spectrometer on-board Chandra. In the low state X-ray emissivities indicate temperatures well above 25 MK. In the high state we find an extended emissivity distribution with high emissivities in the range from 3 MK to over 100 MK. The outburst event in stellar terms is one of the most powerful ever observed and the most energetic one in the ONC with a lower total energy limit of 1.5x10^37 ergs. The line diagnostics show that under the assumption that the line emitting regions in the low states are as close as within 1 -- 2 stellar radii from the O-star's photosphere, whereas the hard states suggest a distance of 3 -- 5 stellar radii. The two outbursts are very close to the periastron passage of the stars. We argue that the high X-ray states are possibly the result of reconnection events from magnetic interactions of the primary and secondary stars of the spectroscopic binary. Effects from wind collisions seem unlikely for this system. The low state emissivity and R-ratios strengthen the predicament that the X-ray emission is enhanced by magnetic confinement of the primary wind. We also detect Fe fluorescence indicative of the existence of substantial amounts of neutral Fe in the vicinity of the X-ray emission.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Main Journa

CP and related phenomena in the context of Stellar Evolution

We review the interaction in intermediate and high mass stars between their evolution and magnetic and chemical properties. We describe the theory of Ap-star `fossil' fields, before touching on the expected secular diffusive processes which give rise to evolution of the field. We then present recent results from a spectropolarimetric survey of Herbig Ae/Be stars, showing that magnetic fields of the kind seen on the main-sequence already exist during the pre-main sequence phase, in agreement with fossil field theory, and that the origin of the slow rotation of Ap/Bp stars also lies early in the pre-main sequence evolution; we also present results confirming a lack of stars with fields below a few hundred gauss. We then seek which macroscopic motions compete with atomic diffusion in determining the surface abundances of AmFm stars. While turbulent transport and mass loss, in competition with atomic diffusion, are both able to explain observed surface abundances, the interior abundance distribution is different enough to potentially lead to a test using asterosismology. Finally we review progress on the turbulence-driving and mixing processes in stellar radiative zones.Comment: Proceedings of IAU GA in Rio, JD4 on Ap stars; 10 pages, 7 figure

Early post-transplant urinary IP-10 expression after kidney transplantation is predictive of short- and long-term graft function

The early identification of renal transplant recipients at enhanced risk of developing acute and subclinical rejection would allow individualized adjustment of immunosuppression before functional graft injury occurs and would exclude these patients from drug-weaning studies. Protein and reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction-based analyses of candidate markers in urine open the opportunity to closely monitor kidney-transplanted patients non-invasively. The chemokine interferon-inducible protein 10 (IP-10; CXCL10) might be an interesting candidate to uncover ongoing immune processes within the graft. Urine samples from kidney-transplanted recipients were retrospectively analyzed for IP-10 mRNA and protein expression. IP-10 levels were correlated with the incidence of acute rejection episodes proven by histology and long-term graft function assessed by the glomerular filtration rate 6 months post transplantation. IP-10 expression in urine identified patients with ongoing acute rejection episodes several days before a biopsy was indicated by rising serum creatinine levels. Most importantly, elevated levels of urinary IP-10 protein within the first four postoperative weeks were predictive of graft function at 6 months even in the absence of acute rejection. These data reveal a correlation between elevated IP-10 expression in urine at early time points post-transplantation and intragraft immune activation that leads to acute rejection and compromised long-term graft function