Estimate solar contribution to the global surface warming using the ACRIM TSI satellite composite

We study, by using a wavelet decomposition methodology, the solar signature on global surface temperature data using the ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite by Willson and Mordvinov. These data present a +0.047%/decade trend between minima during solar cycles 21-23 (1980-2002). We estimate that the ACRIM upward trend might have minimally contributed $\sim$10-30% of the global surface temperature warming over the period 1980-2002

Diagnostics of accelerating plasma Semiannual progress report, 1 Sep. 1968 - 28 Feb. 1969

Accelerating plasma diagnostics - validity of local thermal equilibrium assumption in electromagnetic shock tubes, and current-sheet velocity in coaxial plasma accelerato

Diagnostics of accelerating plasma Semiannual progress report, 1 Mar. - 31 Aug. 1968

Plasma diagnostics in electromagnetically driven shock tubes using laser scattering methods as compared to spectroscopic technique

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed

Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles: Beyond the mass action principle

We present a Monte Carlo simulation of the transmission of measles within a population sample during its growing and equilibrium states by introducing two different vaccination schedules of one and two doses. We study the effects of the contact rate per unit time $\xi$ as well as the initial conditions on the persistence of the disease. We found a weak effect of the initial conditions while the disease persists when $\xi$ lies in the range 1/L-10/L ($L$ being the latent period). Further comparison with existing data, prediction of future epidemics and other estimations of the vaccination efficiency are provided. Finally, we compare our approach to the models using the mass action principle in the first and another epidemic region and found the incidence independent of the number of susceptibles after the epidemic peak while it strongly fluctuates in its growing region. This method can be easily applied to other human, animals and vegetable diseases and includes more complicated parameters.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, Submitted to Phys.Rev.

A "superstorm": When moral panic and new risk discourses converge in the media

This is an Author's Accepted Manuscript of an article published in Health, Risk and Society, 15(6), 681-698, 2013, copyright Taylor & Francis, available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com/10.1080/13698575.2013.851180.There has been a proliferation of risk discourses in recent decades but studies of these have been polarised, drawing either on moral panic or new risk frameworks to analyse journalistic discourses. This article opens the theoretical possibility that the two may co-exist and converge in the same scare. I do this by bringing together more recent developments in moral panic thesis, with new risk theory and the concept of media logic. I then apply this theoretical approach to an empirical analysis of how and with what consequences moral panic and new risk type discourses converged in the editorials of four newspaper campaigns against GM food policy in Britain in the late 1990s. The article analyses 112 editorials published between January 1998 and December 2000, supplemented with news stories where these were needed for contextual clarity. This analysis shows that not only did this novel food generate intense media and public reactions; these developed in the absence of the type of concrete details journalists usually look for in risk stories. Media logic is important in understanding how journalists were able to engage and hence how a major scare could be constructed around convergent moral panic and new risk type discourses. The result was a media ‘superstorm’ of sustained coverage in which both types of discourse converged in highly emotive mutually reinforcing ways that resonated in a highly sensitised context. The consequence was acute anxiety, social volatility and the potential for the disruption of policy and social change

Quantum statistical effects in nano-oscillator arrays

We have theoretically predicted the density of states(DOS), the low temperature specific heat, and Brillouin scattering spectra of a large, free standing array of coupled nano-oscillators. We have found significant gaps in the DOS of 2D elastic systems, and predict the average DOS to be nearly independent of frequency over a broad band f < 50GHz. At low temperatures, the measurements probe the quantum statistics obeyed by rigid body modes of the array and, thus, could be used to verify the quantization of the associated energy levels. These states, in turn, involve center-of mass motion of large numbers of atoms, N > 1.e14, and therefore such observations would extend the domain in which quantum mechanics has been experimentally tested. We have found the required measurement capability to carry out this investigation to be within reach of current technology.Comment: 1 tex file, 3 figures, 1 bbl fil

Evidences for a quasi 60-year North Atlantic Oscillation since 1700 and its meaning for global climate change

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) obtained using instrumental and documentary proxy predictors from Eurasia is found to be characterized by a quasi 60-year dominant oscillation since 1650. This pattern emerges clearly once the NAO record is time integrated to stress its comparison with the temperature record. The integrated NAO (INAO) is found to well correlate with the length of the day (since 1650) and the global surface sea temperature record HadSST2 and HadSST3 (since 1850). These findings suggest that INAO can be used as a good proxy for global climate change, and that a 60-year cycle exists in the global climate since at least 1700. Finally, the INAO ~60-year oscillation well correlates with the ~60- year oscillations found in the historical European aurora record since 1700, which suggests that this 60-year dominant climatic cycle has a solar-astronomical origin

A translational framework for public health research

&lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;The paradigm of translational medicine that underpins frameworks such as the Cooksey report on the funding of health research does not adequately reflect the complex reality of the public health environment. We therefore outline a translational framework for public health research.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Discussion&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Our framework redefines the objective of translation from that of institutionalising effective interventions to that of improving population health by influencing both individual and collective determinants of health. It incorporates epidemiological perspectives with those of the social sciences, recognising that many types of research may contribute to the shaping of policy, practice and future research. It also identifies a pivotal role for evidence synthesis and the importance of non-linear and intersectoral interfaces with the public realm.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;Summary&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;We propose a research agenda to advance the field and argue that resources for 'applied' or 'translational' public health research should be deployed across the framework, not reserved for 'dissemination' or 'implementation'.&lt;/p&gt

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill