Characterizing the Hadley circulation response through regional climate feedbacks

The robust weakening of the tropical atmospheric circulation in projections of anthropogenic warming is associated with substantial changes in regional and global climate. The present study focuses on understanding the response of the annual-mean Hadley circulation from a perspective of interactions between climate feedbacks and tropical circulation. Simulations from an ensemble of coupled ocean–atmosphere models are used to quantify changes in Hadley cell strength in terms of feedbacks, radiative forcing, ocean heat uptake, atmospheric eddies, and gross moist stability. Climate feedbacks are calculated for the model integrations from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) using radiative kernels. Tropical mean circulation is found to be reduced by up to 2.6% K^(−1) for an abrupt quadrupling of carbon dioxide concentration. The weakening is characterized by an increase in gross moist stability, by an increase in eddy heat flux, and by positive extratropical feedbacks, such as those associated with lapse rate and sea ice response. Understanding the impact of radiative feedbacks on the large-scale circulation provides a framework for constraining uncertainty in the dynamic climate response, including the hydrological cycle

The influence of regional feedbacks on circulation sensitivity

Weakening of the tropical overturning circulation in a warmer world is a robust feature in climate models. Here an idealized representation of ocean heat flux drives a Walker cell in an aquaplanet simulation. A goal of the study is to assess the influence of the Walker circulation on the magnitude and structure of climate feedbacks, as well as to global sensitivity. We compare two CO_2 perturbation experiments, one with and one without a Walker circulation, to isolate the differences attributable to tropical circulation and associated zonal asymmetries. For an imposed Walker circulation, the subtropical shortwave cloud feedback is reduced, which manifests as a weaker tropical-subtropical anomalous energy gradient and consequently a weaker slow down of the Hadley circulation, relative to the case without a Walker circulation. By focusing on the coupled feedback circulation system, these results offer insights into understanding changes in atmospheric circulation and hence the hydrological cycle under global warming

Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming

Arctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow-ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This manuscript aims to build such an understanding by synthesizing current knowledge of AA and to produce a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA. We recommend raising the priority of Arctic climate sensitivity research, improving the accuracy of Arctic surface energy budget observations, rethinking climate feedback definitions, coordinating new model experiments and intercomparisons, and further investigating the role of episodic variability in AA

Process Drivers, Inter-Model Spread, and the Path Forward: A Review of Amplified Arctic Warming

This is the final version. Available on open access from Frontiers Media via the DOI in this recordArctic amplification (AA) is a coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean process. This understanding has evolved from the early concept of AA, as a consequence of snow-ice line progressions, through more than a century of research that has clarified the relevant processes and driving mechanisms of AA. The predictions made by early modeling studies, namely the fall/winter maximum, bottom-heavy structure, the prominence of surface albedo feedback, and the importance of stable stratification have withstood the scrutiny of multi-decadal observations and more complex models. Yet, the uncertainty in Arctic climate projections is larger than in any other region of the planet, making the assessment of high-impact, near-term regional changes difficult or impossible. Reducing this large spread in Arctic climate projections requires a quantitative process understanding. This manuscript aims to build such an understanding by synthesizing current knowledge of AA and to produce a set of recommendations to guide future research. It briefly reviews the history of AA science, summarizes observed Arctic changes, discusses modeling approaches and feedback diagnostics, and assesses the current understanding of the most relevant feedbacks to AA. These sections culminate in a conceptual model of the fundamental physical mechanisms causing AA and a collection of recommendations to accelerate progress towards reduced uncertainty in Arctic climate projections. Our conceptual model highlights the need to account for local feedback and remote process interactions within the context of the annual cycle to constrain projected AA. We recommend raising the priority of Arctic climate sensitivity research, improving the accuracy of Arctic surface energy budget observations, rethinking climate feedback definitions, coordinating new model experiments and intercomparisons, and further investigating the role of episodic variability in AA.NASANatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC)US National Science foundationAlfred P. Sloan FoundationNatural Environment Research Council (NERC

Time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy of solids in the extreme ultraviolet at 500 kHz repetition rate

Time- and angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (trARPES) employing a 500 kHz extreme-ultraviolet light source operating at 21.7 eV probe photon energy is reported. Based on a high-power ytterbium laser, optical parametric chirped pulse amplification, and ultraviolet-driven high-harmonic generation, the light source produces an isolated high-harmonic with 110 meV bandwidth and a flux of more than 1011 photons/s on the sample. Combined with a state-of-the-art ARPES chamber, this table-top experiment allows high-repetition rate pump-probe experiments of electron dynamics in occupied and normally unoccupied (excited) states in the entire Brillouin zone and with a temporal system response function below 40 f

A New Paradigm for Large Earthquakes in Stable Continental Plate Interiors

Large earthquakes within stable continental regions (SCR) show that significant amounts of elastic strain can be released on geological structures far from plate boundary faults, where the vast majority of the Earth's seismic activity takes place. SCR earthquakes show spatial and temporal patterns that differ from those at plate boundaries and occur in regions where tectonic loading rates are negligible. However, in the absence of a more appropriate model, they are traditionally viewed as analogous to their plate boundary counterparts, occuring when the accrual of tectonic stress localized at long-lived active faults reaches failure threshold. Here we argue that SCR earthquakes are better explained by transient perturbations of local stress or fault strength that release elastic energy from a pre-stressed lithosphere. As a result, SCR earthquakes can occur in regions with no previous seismicity and no surface evidence for strain accumulation. They need not repeat, since the tectonic loading rate is close to zero. Therefore, concepts of recurrence time or fault slip rate do not apply. As a consequence, seismic hazard in SCRs is likely more spatially distributed than indicated by paleoearthquakes, current seismicity, or geodetic strain rates

Extratropical forcing and tropical rainfall distribution: energetics framework and ocean Ekman advection

Intense tropical rainfall occurs in a narrow belt near the equator, called the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In the past decade, the atmospheric energy budget has been used to explain changes in the zonal-mean ITCZ position. The energetics framework provides a mechanism for extratropics-to-tropics teleconnections, which have been postulated from paleoclimate records. In atmosphere models coupled with a motionless slab ocean, the ITCZ shifts toward the warmed hemisphere in order for the Hadley circulation to transport energy toward the colder hemisphere. However, recent studies using fully coupled models show that tropical rainfall can be rather insensitive to extratropical forcing when ocean dynamics is included. Here, we explore the effect of meridional Ekman heat advection while neglecting the upwelling effect on the ITCZ response to prescribed extratropical thermal forcing. The tropical component of Ekman advection is a negative feedback that partially compensates the prescribed forcing, whereas the extratropical component is a positive feedback that amplifies the prescribed forcing. Overall, the tropical negative feedback dominates over the extratropical positive feedback. Thus, including Ekman advection reduces the need for atmospheric energy transport, dampening the ITCZ response. We propose to build a hierarchy of ocean models to systematically explore the full dynamical response of the coupled climate system

Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics

Dynamical processes in the atmosphere and ocean are central to determining the large-scale drivers of regional climate change, yet their predictive understanding is poor. Here, we identify three frontline challenges in climate dynamics where significant progress can be made to inform adaptation: response of storms, blocks and jet streams to external forcing; basin-to-basin and tropical–extratropical teleconnections; and the development of non-linear predictive theory. We highlight opportunities and techniques for making immediate progress in these areas, which critically involve the development of high-resolution coupled model simulations, partial coupling or pacemaker experiments, as well as the development and use of dynamical metrics and exploitation of hierarchies of models