Ecological theatre and the evolutionary game: how environmental and demographic factors determine payoffs in evolutionary games

In the standard approach to evolutionary games and replicator dynamics, differences in fitness can be interpreted as an excess from the mean Malthusian growth rate in the population. In the underlying reasoning, related to an analysis of "costs" and "benefits", there is a silent assumption that fitness can be described in some type of units. However, in most cases these units of measure are not explicitly specified. Then the question arises: are these theories testable? How can we measure "benefit" or "cost"? A natural language, useful for describing and justifying comparisons of strategic "cost" versus "benefits", is the terminology of demography, because the basic events that shape the outcome of natural selection are births and deaths. In this paper, we present the consequences of an explicit analysis of births and deaths in an evolutionary game theoretic framework. We will investigate different types of mortality pressures, their combinations and the possibility of trade-offs between mortality and fertility. We will show that within this new approach it is possible to model how strictly ecological factors such as density dependence and additive background fitness, which seem neutral in classical theory, can affect the outcomes of the game. We consider the example of the Hawk-Dove game, and show that when reformulated in terms of our new approach new details and new biological predictions are produced

Het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma in Nederland. Ontwikkelingen in 2006

In 2006 several changes were made in the Dutch National Immunisation Programme (NIP): Hepatitis B vaccination at birth was added for children born to mothers positive for hepatitis B surface antigen; a new vaccine for diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis (a-cellular), poliomyelitis and Haemophilus influenzae (DTaP-IPV/Hib) was introduced; vaccination against pneumococcal disease was added at two, three, four and eleven months; risk groups for hepatitis B receive a combined vaccine for DTaP-IPV/Hib and HBV at the same ages; DT-IPV and aP at the age of four years were combined in one vaccine; and new MMR vaccines were introduced. As new information became available in 2006, the desirability to introduce vaccinations in the NIP for the following diseases could be (re)considered: hepatitis B (universal vaccination), rotavirus, varicella and human papillomavirus. For respiratory syncytial virus and meningococcal serogroup B disease no candidate vaccines are available yet. Extension of the programme with available vaccines for hepatitis A, influenza and tuberculosis is not (yet) recommended. The NIP in the Netherlands is effective and safe. However, continued monitoring of the effectiveness and safety of the NIP is important as changes are made regularly. Maintaining high vaccine uptake is vital to prevent (re)emergence of diseases. Furthermore, the programme should be regularly reviewed as new vaccines become available.In 2006 traden verschillende veranderingen op in het Rijksvaccinatieprogramma (RVP) in Nederland: kinderen die geboren worden uit moeders die chronisch geinfecteerd zijn met hepatitis B krijgen vlak na de geboorte een hepatitis B vaccinatie; er is een ander vaccin geintroduceerd voor difterie, kinkhoest (a-cellulair), tetanus, poliomyelitis en Haemophilus influenzae (DaKTP/Hib); vaccinatie tegen pneumokokken is toegevoegd op de leeftijd van 2, drie, vier en elf maanden; risicogroepen voor hepatitis B krijgen op diezelfde leeftijden een combinatievaccin voor DaKTP/Hib en hepatitis B; DTP en aK zijn gecombineerd in een vaccin op vierjarige leeftijd; en er zijn nieuwe BMR vaccins geintroduceerd. Op basis van informatie die in 2006 beschikbaar is gekomen wordt geadviseerd de introductie van vaccinaties voor de volgende ziekten te overwegen: hepatitis B (universele vaccinatie), rotavirus, waterpokken en humaan papillomavirus. Voor respiratoir syncytieel virus en meningokokken B zijn nog geen kandidaatvaccins beschikbaar en uitbreiding van het RVP met beschikbare vaccins voor hepatitis A, influenza en tuberculose wordt nog niet aanbevolen. Het RVP is effectief en veilig, maar voortdurende bewaking hiervan is groot belang, omdat er regelmatig veranderingen optreden. Handhaven van de hoge vaccinatiegraad is essentieel om terugkeer van ziekten te voorkomen. Verder moet regelmatig bekeken worden of het RVP aangepast moet worden aangezien er steeds nieuwe vaccins beschikbaar komen

Modelling the strategies for age specific vaccination scheduling during influenza pandemic outbreaks

Finding optimal policies to reduce the morbidity and mortality of the ongoing pandemic is a top public health priority. Using a compartmental model with age structure and vaccination status, we examined the effect of age specific scheduling of vaccination during a pandemic influenza outbreak, when there is a race between the vaccination campaign and the dynamics of the pandemic. Our results agree with some recent studies on that age specificity is paramount to vaccination planning. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures when they are applied during the outbreak. Comparing five possible strategies, we found that age specific scheduling can have a huge impact on the outcome of the epidemic. For the best scheme, the attack rates were up to 10% lower than for other strategies. We demonstrate the importance of early start of the vaccination campaign, since ten days delay may increase the attack rate by up to 6%. Taking into account the delay between developing immunity and vaccination is a key factor in evaluating the impact of vaccination campaigns. We provide a general framework which will be useful for the next pandemic waves as well

Order of invasion affects the spatial distribution of a reciprocal intraguild predator

When intraguild predation is reciprocal, i.e. two predator species kill and feed on each other, theory predicts that well-mixed populations of the two species cannot coexist. At low levels of the shared resource, only the best competitor exists, whereas if the level of the common resource is high, the first species to arrive on a patch can reach high numbers, which prevents the invasion of the second species through intraguild predation. The order of invasion may therefore be of high importance in systems with reciprocal intraguild predation with high levels of productivity, with the species arriving first excluding the other species. However, natural systems are not well mixed and usually have a patchy structure, which gives individuals the possibility to choose patches without the other predator, thus reducing opportunities for intraguild predation. Such avoidance behaviour can cause spatial segregation between predator species, which, in turn, may weaken the intraguild interaction strength and facilitate their co-occurrence in patchy systems. Using a simple set-up, we studied the spatial distribution of two reciprocal intraguild predators when either of them was given priority on a patch with food. We released females of two predatory mite species sequentially and found that both species avoided patches on which the other species was resident. This resulted in partial spatial segregation of the species and thus a lower chance for the two species to encounter each other. Such behaviour reinforces segregation, because heterospecifics avoid patches with established populations of the other species. This may facilitate coexistence of two intraguild predators that would exclude each other in well-mixed populations

Periodic Host Absence Can Select for Higher or Lower Parasite Transmission Rates

This paper explores the effect of discontinuous periodic host absence on the evolution of pathogen transmission rates by using Ro maximisation techniques. The physiological consequence of an increased transmission rate can be either an increased virulence, i.e. there is a transmission-virulence trade-off or ii) a reduced between season survival, i.e. there is a transmission-survival trade-off. The results reveal that the type of trade-off determines the direction of selection, with relatively longer periods of host absence selecting for higher transmission rates in the presence of a trade-off between transmission and virulence but lower transmission rates in the presence of a trade-of between transmission and between season survival. The fact that for the transmission-virulence trade-off both trade-off parameters operate during host presence whereas for the transmission-survival trade-off one operates during host presence (transmission) and the other (survival) during the period of host absence is the main cause for this difference in selection direction. Moreover, the period of host absence seems to be the key determinant of the pathogens transmission rate. Comparing plant patho-systems with contrasting biological features suggests that airborne plant pathogen respond differently to longer periods of host absence than soil-borne plant pathogens

Attenuation of N2 amplitude of laser-evoked potentials by theta burst stimulation of primary somatosensory cortex

Theta burst stimulation (TBS) is a special repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) paradigm, where bursts of low-intensity stimuli are applied in the theta frequency. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of neuronavigated TBS over primary somatosensory cortex (SI) on laser-evoked potentials (LEPs) and acute pain perception induced with Tm : YAG laser stimulation. The amplitude changes of the N1, N2, and P2 components of LEPs and related subjective pain rating scores of 12 healthy subjects were analyzed prior to and following continuous TBS (cTBS), intermittent TBS (iTBS), intermediate TBS (imTBS), and sham stimulation. Our results demonstrate that all active TBS paradigms significantly diminished the amplitude of the N2 component, when the hand contralateral to the site of TBS was laser-stimulated. Sham stimulation condition had no significant effect. The subjective pain perception also decreased during the experimental sessions, but did not differ significantly from the sham stimulation condition. The main finding of our study is that TBS over SI diminished the amplitude of the N2 component evoked from the contralateral side without any significant analgesic effects. Furthermore, imTBS produced responses similar to those observed by other forms of TBS induced excitability changes in the SI

Osteopontin Impairs Host Defense during Established Gram-Negative Sepsis Caused by Burkholderia pseudomallei (Melioidosis)

Melioidosis is a severe tropical disease caused by infection with the bacterium Burkholderia (B.) pseudomallei. In northeast Thailand infection with this bacterium is the major cause of community-acquired septicemia with a mortality rate up to 40%. Extending the knowledge on the mechanisms of host defense against B. pseudomallei infection would be helpful to improve treatment of this severe illness. Osteopontin (OPN) is a cytokine that is involved in several immune responses that occur during bacterial infection. In this study, we investigated levels of OPN in patients with melioidosis, and studied the function of OPN during experimental melioidosis in mice. We found that OPN concentrations were elevated in patients with severe melioidosis, and that high OPN concentrations are associated with poor outcome in patients with melioidosis. In experimental melioidosis in mice plasma and lung OPN levels were also increased. Moreover, mice with melioidosis that were deficient for OPN demonstrated reduced bacterial numbers in their lungs, diminished pulmonary tissue injury, and decreased neutrophil infiltration into the lungs during established melioidosis. Moreover, these mice displayed a delayed mortality as compared to control mice. In conclusion, sustained production of OPN impairs host defense during melioidosis

Beyond R0 : demographic models for variability of lifetime reproductive output

© The Author(s), 2011. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in PLoS One 6 (2011): e20809, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0020809.The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants).Supported by National Science Foundation Grant DEB-0816514 and by a Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: a review and reporting protocol.

BACKGROUND: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. METHODS: We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. RESULTS: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. CONCLUSIONS: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison

Parasympathetic nervous system dysfunction, as identified by pupil light reflex, and its possible connection to hearing impairment

Context Although the pupil light reflex has been widely used as a clinical diagnostic tool for autonomic nervous system dysfunction, there is no systematic review available to summarize the evidence that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive method to detect parasympathetic dysfunction. Meanwhile, the relationship between parasympathetic functioning and hearing impairment is relatively unknown. Objectives To 1) review the evidence for the pupil light reflex being a sensitive method to evaluate parasympathetic dysfunction, 2) review the evidence relating hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity and 3) seek evidence of possible connections between hearing impairment and the pupil light reflex. Methods Literature searches were performed in five electronic databases. All selected articles were categorized into three sections: pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction, hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity, pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Results Thirty-eight articles were included in this review. Among them, 36 articles addressed the pupil light reflex and parasympathetic dysfunction. We summarized the information in these data according to different types of parasympathetic-related diseases. Most of the studies showed a difference on at least one pupil light reflex parameter between patients and healthy controls. Two articles discussed the relationship between hearing impairment and parasympathetic activity. Both studies reported a reduced parasympathetic activity in the hearing impaired groups. The searches identified no results for pupil light reflex and hearing impairment. Discussion and Conclusions As the first systematic review of the evidence, our findings suggest that the pupil light reflex is a sensitive tool to assess the presence of parasympathetic dysfunction. Maximum constriction velocity and relative constriction amplitude appear to be the most sensitive parameters. There are only two studies investigating the relationship between parasympathetic activity and hearing impairment, hence further research is needed. The pupil light reflex could be a candidate measurement tool to achieve this goal