Predicting and controlling the dynamics of infectious diseases

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent parameter that defines the spread of infection. All the preventive measures aim to decrease the average time of isolation under given constraints

Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014

This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested linear model. It contains one major variable - the average time of infectiousness (time from onset to hospitalization) that is considered as a parameter for controlling the future dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario

Trend Analysis of Selected Hydro-Meterological Processes

Identification of the precise nature and attributes of the time series of climatological data is very important and is usually the first step of water resources planning and management, The major objective of this study is to determine the presence or otherwise of trend over time for some selected Hydro-climatic components of Kaduna, Nigeria, and deduce (if trend is detected) it’s magnitude.To this end this study employed statistical approaches used to investigate the presence and extent of persistence, trend analysis in Hydro-climatic time series. The study investigated spatial distributional pattern (i.e. Trend) of the indicative Hydro-climatic variables based on Mann Kendall test, twenty six years of hydro-climatic data for Kaduna, Kaduna state were used. The non-parametric Man-Kendall test was used to detect monotonic trends, and the Mann-Kendall slope estimator was used to estimate the magnitude of trend on the variables. The study showed that there is an evidence of trend on all variables, The Temperature and Evaporation variables showed a positive and significant trend over time, while rainfall and stream flow have negative trend though not significant at the 95 or 99% level of confidence. Thus, it could be concluded that the trend of change in temperature around River Kaduna is on the increase, with no significant increase in change of rainfall.This is not favourable for stream-flow management and other related hydrological processes. Based on the results it is strongly recommended that proper water resource management strategy be put in place to avoid the water drying off; tests should be carried out on other hydro-climatic variables to ensure better management since there is no strong independence among hydro-climatic characteristics. Keywords: Hydro-climatic, Man-Kendall, Rainfall, Stream-flow, Temperature, Tren

Data Mining with SQL Server 2008 Business Intelligence Development Studio A Hands-on Approach

Data mining is an emerging field of study in Information Systems programs. The purpose of this tutorial is to provide a hands-on approach on how to utilize SQL Server 2008 Business Intelligence platforms to teach a senior level data mining methods class in an Information Systems program. Our intention is to highlight the capabilities of the platform to faculty currently teaching a business intelligence course and are interested in expanding their teaching portfolio to the data mining area with hands-on exercises and projects. The platform allows faculty to focus on teaching the analytical aspects of data mining and the usage of algorithms through practical hands-on demonstrations, homework assignments and projects. As a result, students are expected to gain a conceptual understanding of data mining and the application of data mining algorithms for the purpose of decision support. Such a platform allows faculty to provide a comprehensive coverage of the topic with practical hands-on experience. The availability of this set of tools transforms the role of a student from a programmer of data mining algorithms (doing low level IT) to a business intelligence analyst

Transabdominal sonographic diagnosis of placenta praevia in a tertiary maternity unit in Jos, Nigeria: How accurate?

Context: Ultrasonography has revolutionalise the diagnosis and  management of placenta praevia, a high risk pregnancy associated with life threatening maternal and fetal complications. Although transabdominal sonography (TAS) is a valuable obstetric imaging technique in this maternity unit, its value in the diagnosis of placenta praevia has not been assessed.Objectives: To assess the accuracy and false positive rate of TAS in the diagnosis of placenta praevia and to determine the types of placenta praevia.Study design, Settings and Subjects: A prospective descriptive study of all women with transabdominal sonographic diagnosis of placenta praevia in the maternity unit of Jos University Teaching Hospital, Jos, Nigeria between January 2006 and June 2009. All the patients had sonographic assessment with scanner Toshiba just vision 400, with a 3.5MHz curvilinear transducer. The presence or absence of placenta praevia was confirmed at caesareandelivery.Main outcome measures: Accuracy and false positive rate of TAS in the diagnosis of placenta praevia as well as it types.Results: Placenta praevia was confirmed intra-operatively in 121 out of the 137 patients with ultrasound diagnosis. Thus, the diagnostic accuracy of TAS was 88.3% and a false positive rate of 11.7% with about 68.8% of the false positive cases having abruptio placentae. Seventy four (61.2%) and 47 (38.8%) were major and minor degree placenta praevia respectively.Conclusion: TAS is a valuable and accurate modality for the diagnosis of placenta praevia in this maternity unit but more vigilance is needed during the procedure so as to reduce the false positive rate. The use of vaginal ultrasonography in this centre may significantly improve the accuracy in the diagnosis of the condition.Keywords: Placenta praevia, Transabdominal, Sonography, accuracy, false positive rate

Path Coefficient Analysis of Growth and Yield Traits of Rice (Oryza sativa L.) at Bokolori, Talata Mafara, Sudan Savanna Ecological Zone, Nigeria

In order to determine the direct and indirect effects of yield and yield components of rice, a field experiment was conducted in each of the wet seasons of 2016 and 2017 at Irrigation Research Stations of the Institute for Agricultural Research, Bokolori, Talata Mafara, in the Sudan Savanna ecological zone of Nigeria (12° 34’ N; 06° 04’E). The treatment consisted of four (4) weed management practice (Oxadiazon at 1.0 kg a.i ha-1 [pre-emergence], Orizo-plus [proponil 360 g/l + 2,4-D 200 g/l] at 2.8 kg a.i ha-1[post emergence at 3 WAS], manual weeding [at 3 and 6 WAS] and weedy check [control]); three (3) each of seeding method (Drilling, Dibbling and Broadcast) and seed rate (40 kg ha-1; 70 kg ha-1; 100 kg ha-1). The experiment was laid in a split plot design replicated three times. Weed management practice was assigned to the main plots while the combination of seeding method and seed rate to the subplots. Data were collected on plant height, leaf area, crop dry matter, tillering ability, crop growth rate, harvest index (HI), panicle length, number of grains per panicle, 1000-grain weight and paddy yield. The result indicated that, the highest individual contribution of 25.04% to paddy yield was made by dry matter followed by 1000-grain weight (8.74%), tillering ability (8.46%), leaf area (3.13%), number of grains per panicle (1.03%) and the least was from panicle length (0.83%). The contribution of these growth and yield attributes to yield suggests that, priority be given to these traits when making selection for improvement

Exploratory Analysis Of The Readability Of Information Privacy Statement Of The Primary Social Networks

The goal of a privacy policy statement of a web site is to inform users of the policies and procedures of a web-site as it relates to their collection, use, sharing, access, security and use of technology as it relates to collection of data (cookies and web beacons) and disclosure of personally identifiable information when a user visits the web site.  In this paper we perform exploratory data analysis of the historical evolution of the readability as well as the reading grade level of the privacy policy statements of Google, Yahoo, Myspace and Facebook.  We used the Flesch-Kinkaid, Gunning Fog and SMOG reading grade analysis measures. We gathered summary statistics of the complexity of each privacy statement (count of 3+ syllables words, count of 6+ characters words, count of 20+ word sentences).  We conclude that (1) Except for Yahoo.com, these privacy policy statements are currently written for web-users with a minimum of 2 years of college education. This is not the case for most of social networks users. (2) Using Yahoo.com as a benchmark, privacy policy statements can accomplish their goals and maintain a reading grade level of high school education or less. Accordingly, social networks can accomplish their goal of providing clear and concise privacy policy statements without having to complicate the policy statements with too many 3+ syllable words, 6+ characters words and 20+ word sentences.  In summary, it is possible to write a legally binding privacy policy statement that is also clear and easy to read

Radikalisme Agama Legitimasi Tafsir Kekerasan di Ruang Publik

Religious radicalism shows a high intensity over the last decade in Indonesia. This religious radicalism subsequently brings a massive impact when it is admitted by the action of choosing violence as the only way. In this article, we put forward our arguments: first, the point of intersection between violence and religion; second, radicalism used as a method to respond to various issues such as injustice, and so on. Third, regarding alternative methods that can be done in order to minimize radical action and understanding in Indonesia. This paper confirms three main points. First, the teaching of religion, especially Islam basically contains the peace teachings and safety; therefore, one was very anti-violence and radical actions. Second, radical action can be a method to hear our voices in response to various injustices that occur in a few places in the world. Third, understand the narrowly religious texts have an impact on building understanding and narrow action anyway. &nbsp