Homogenisation and analysis of an expanded long-term monthly rainfall network for the Island of Ireland (1850-2010)

Long-term precipitation series are critical for understanding emerging changes to the hydrological cycle. To this end we construct a homogenised Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network comprising 25 stations and a composite series covering the period 1850-2010, providing the second- longest regional precipitation archive in the British-Irish Isles. We expand the existing catalogue of long-term precipitation records for the island by recovering archived data for an additional eight stations. Following bridging and updating of stations HOMER homogenisation software is used to detect breaks using pairwise and joint detection. Twenty-five breakpoints are detected across 14 stations, and the majority (20) are corroborated by metadata. Assessment of variability and change in homogenised and extended precipitation records reveal positive (winter) and negative (summer) trends. Trends in records covering the typical period of digitisation (1941 onwards) are not always representative of longer records. Furthermore, trends in post-homogenisation series change magnitude and even direction at some stations. While cautionary flags are raised for some series, confidence in the derived network is high given attention paid to metadata, coherence of behaviour across the network and consistency of findings with other long-term climatic series such as England and Wales precipitation. As far as we are aware, this work represents the first application of HOMER to a long- term precipitation network and bodes well for use in other regions. It is expected that the homogenised IIP network will find wider utility in benchmarking and supporting climate services across the Island of Ireland, a sentinel location in the North Atlantic

An evaluation of persistent meteorological drought using a homogeneous Island of Ireland precipitation network

This paper investigates the spatial and temporal properties of persistent meteorological droughts using the homogeneous Island of Ireland Precipitation (IIP) network. Relative to a 1961-1990 baseline period it is shown that the longest observed run of below average precipitation since the 1850s lasted up to 5 years (10 half-year seasons) at sites in southeast and east Ireland, or 3 years across the network as a whole. Dry- and wet-spell length distributions were represented by a first-order Markov model which yields realistic runs of below average rainfall for individual sites and IIP series. This model shows that there is relatively high likelihood (p=0.125) of a 5 year dry-spell at Dublin, and that near unbroken dry runs of 10 years or more are conceivable. We suggest that the IIP network and attendant rainfall deficit modelling provide credible data for stress testing water supply and drought plans under extreme conditions

The results of compression forces applied to the isolated human calvaria

Data for the force necessary to fracture the isolated calvaria (skull cap) are not available in the extant literature. Twenty dry adult calvaria were tested to failure quasistatically at the vertex using a 15-kN load cell. The forces necessary to fracture or cause diastasis of calvarial sutures were then documented and gross examination of the specimens made. Failure forces had a mean measurement of 2772 N. Initial fractures did not cross suture lines. Prior to complete destruction of the calvaria there were 7 specimens in which all sutures of the calvaria became diastatic, 6 specimens in which the calvaria became diastatic along only the coronal sutures, 2 specimens in which the calvaria became diastatic along only the sagittal suture and 5 specimens in which there were diagonal linear parietal bone fractures. Our hopes are that these data may contribute to the structural design of more safer protective devices for use in our society, assist in predicting injury and aid in the construction of treatment paradigms

A western diet increases serotonin availability in rat small intestine

Diet-induced obesity is associated with changes in gastrointestinal function and induction of a mild inflammatory state. Serotonin (5-HT) containing enterochromaffin (EC) cells within the intestine respond to nutrients and are altered by inflammation. Thus, our aim was to characterize the uptake and release of 5-HT from EC cells of the rat ileum in a physiologically relevant model of diet-induced obesity. In chow-fed (CF) and Western diet-fed (WD) rats electrochemical methods were used to measure compression evoked (peak) and steady state (SS) 5-HT levels with fluoxetine used to block the serotonin reuptake transporter (SERT). The levels ofmRNAfor tryptophan hydroxylase 1 (TPH1) and SERT were determined by quantitative PCR, while EC cell numbers were determined immunohistochemically. In WD rats, the levels of 5-HT were significantly increased (SS: 19.2±3.7 ±M; peak: 73.5±14.1 ±M) compared with CF rats (SS: 12.3±1.8 ±M; peak: 32.2±7.2 ±M), while SERTdependent uptake of 5-HT was reduced (peak WD: 108% of control versus peak CF: 212% control). In WD rats, there was a significant increase in TPH1 mRNA, a decrease in SERT mRNA and protein, and an increase in EC cells. In conclusion, our data show that foods typical of a Western diet are associated with an increased 5-HT availability in the rat ileum. Increased 5-HT availability is driven by the up-regulation of 5-HT synthesis genes, decreased re-uptake of 5-HT, and increased numbers and/or 5-HT content of EC cells which are likely to cause altered intestinal motility and sensation in vivo. Copyright © 2010 The Endocrine Society. All rights reserved

Learning from errors:Assessing final year medical students' reflection on safety improvement, five year cohort study

Abstract Background Investigation of real incidents has been consistently identified by expert reviews and student surveys as a potentially valuable teaching resource for medical students. The aim of this study was to adapt a published method to measure resident doctors’ reflection on quality improvement and evaluate this as an assessment tool for medical students. Methods The design is a cohort study. Medical students were prepared with a tutorial in team based learning format and an online Managing Incident Review course. The reliability of the modified Mayo Evaluation of Reflection on Improvement tool (mMERIT) was analysed with Generalizability G-theory. Long term sustainability of assessment of incident review with mMERIT was tested over five consecutive years. Results A total of 824 students have completed an incident review using 167 incidents from NHS Tayside’s online reporting system. In order to address the academic practice gap students were supervised by Senior Charge Nurses or Consultants on the wards where the incidents had been reported. Inter-rater reliability was considered sufficiently high to have one assessor for each student report. There was no evidence of a gradient in student marks across the academic year. Marks were significantly higher for students who used Section Questions to structure their reports compared with those who did not. In Year 1 of the study 21 (14%) of 153 mMERIT reports were graded as concern. All 21 of these students achieved the required standard on resubmission. Rates of resubmission were lower (3% to 7%) in subsequent years. Conclusions We have shown that mMERIT has high reliability with one rater. mMERIT can be used by students as part of a suite of feedback to help supplement their self-assessment on their learning needs and develop insightful practice to drive their development of quality, safety and person centred professional practice. Incident review addresses the need for workplace based learning and use of real life examples of mistakes, which has been identified by previous studies of education about patient safety in medical schools

On the Generalizability of Experimental Results

The age-old question of the generalizability of the results of experiments that are conducted in artificial laboratory settings to more realistic inferential and decision making situations is considered in this paper. Conservatism in probability revision provides an example of a result that 1) has received wide attention, including attention in terms of implications for real-world decision making, on the basis of experiments conducted in artificial settings and 2) is now apparently thought by many to be highly situational and not at all a ubiquitous phenomenon, in which case its implications for real-world decision making are not as extensive as originally claimed. In this paper we consider the questions of generalizations from the laboratory to the real world in some detail, both within the context of the experiments regarding conservatism and within a more general context. In addition, we discuss some of the difficulties inherent in experimentation in realistic settings, suggest possible procedures for avoiding or at least alleviating such difficulties, and make a plea for more realistic experiments

Refined saddle-point preconditioners for discretized Stokes problems

This paper is concerned with the implementation of efficient solution algorithms for elliptic problems with constraints. We establish theory which shows that including a simple scaling within well-established block diagonal preconditioners for Stokes problems can result in significantly faster convergence when applying the preconditioned MINRES method. The codes used in the numerical studies are available online

Diagnosing the Role of Alfvén Waves in Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling: Swarm Observations of Large Amplitude Nonstationary Magnetic Perturbations During an Interval of Northward IMF

High-resolution multispacecraft Swarm data are used to examine magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling during a period of northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) on 31 May 2014. The observations reveal a prevalence of unexpectedly large amplitude (>100 nT) and time-varying magnetic perturbations during the polar passes, with especially large amplitude magnetic perturbations being associated with large-scale downward field-aligned currents. Differences between the magnetic field measurements sampled at 50 Hz from Swarm A and C, approximately 10 s apart along track, and the correspondence between the observed electric and magnetic fields at 16 samples per second, provide significant evidence for an important role for Alfvén waves in magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling even during northward IMF conditions. Spectral comparison between the wave E- and B-fields reveals a frequency-dependent phase difference and amplitude ratio consistent with interference between incident and reflected Alfvén waves. At low frequencies, the E/B ratio is in phase with an amplitude determined by the Pedersen conductance. At higher frequencies, the amplitude and phase change as a function of frequency in good agreement with an ionospheric Alfvén resonator model including Pedersen conductance effects. Indeed, within this Alfvén wave incidence, reflection, and interference paradigm, even quasi-static field-aligned currents might be reasonably interpreted as very low frequency (ω → 0) Alfvén waves. Overall, our results not only indicate the importance of Alfvén waves for magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling but also demonstrate a method for using Swarm data for the innovative experimental diagnosis of Pedersen conductance from low-Earth orbit satellite measurements

Modulation of long-term potentiation following microdoses of LSD captured by thalamo-cortical modelling in a randomised, controlled trial

This is the final version. Available from BMC via the DOI in this record. Data availability: The datasets used and/or analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Code for the TCM model is available here: https://github.com/alexandershaw4/LTP_code.Background Microdosing psychedelics is a phenomenon with claimed cognitive benefts that are relatively untested clinically. Pre-clinically, psychedelics have demonstrated enhancing efects on neuroplasticity, which cannot be measured directly in humans, but may be indexed by non-invasive electroencephalography (EEG) paradigms. This study used a visual long-term potentiation (LTP) EEG paradigm to test the efects of microdosed lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD) on neural plasticity, both acutely while on the drug and cumulatively after microdosing every third day for six weeks. Healthy adult males (n=80) completed the visual LTP paradigm at baseline, 2.5 h following a dose of 10 µg of LSD or inactive placebo, and 6 weeks later after taking 14 repeated microdoses. Visually induced LTP was used as indirect index of neural plasticity. Surface level event-related potential (ERPs) based analyses are presented alongside dynamic causal modelling of the source localised data using a generative thalamocortical model (TCM) of visual cortex to elucidate underlying synaptic circuitry. Results Event-related potential (ERP) analyses of N1b and P2 components did not show evidence of changes in visually induced LTP by LSD either acutely or after 6 weeks of regular dosing. However modelling the complete timecourse of the ERP with the TCM demonstrated changes in laminar connectivity in primary visual cortex. This primarily included changes to self-gain and inhibitory input parameters acutely. Layer 2/3 to layer 5 excitatory connectivity was also diferent between LSD and placebo groups. After regular dosing only excitatory input from layer 2/3 into layer 5 and inhibitory input into layer 4 were diferent between groups. Conclusions Without modulation of the ERPs it is difcult to relate the fndings to other studies visually inducing LTP. It also indicates the classic peak analysis may not be sensitive enough to demonstrate evidence for changes in LTP plasticity in humans at such low doses. The TCM provides a more sensitive approach to assessing changes to plasticity as diferences in plasticity mediated laminar connectivity were found between the LSD and placebo groups.Health Research Council of New ZealandMindBio Therapeutics Ltd