Robust estimation for ARMA models

This paper introduces a new class of robust estimates for ARMA models. They are M-estimates, but the residuals are computed so the effect of one outlier is limited to the period where it occurs. These estimates are closely related to those based on a robust filter, but they have two important advantages: they are consistent and the asymptotic theory is tractable. We perform a Monte Carlo where we show that these estimates compare favorably with respect to standard M-estimates and to estimates based on a diagnostic procedure.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS570 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A critical-density closed Universe in Brans-Dicke theory

In a Brans-Dicke (BD) cosmological model, the energy density associated with some scalar field decreases as \displaystyle a^{{-2}(\frac{\omega_{o}+ {\frac12}%}{\omega_{o}+1})} with the scale factor $a(t)$ of the Universe, giving a matter with an Equation of state $\displaystyle p=-{1/3}(\frac{2+\omega_{o}}{1+\omega_{o}}) \rho$. In this model, the Universe could be closed but still have a nonrelativistic-matter density corresponding to its critical value, $\Omega_{o}=1$. Different cosmological expressions, such as, luminosity distance, angular diameter, number count and ratio of the redshift tickness-angular size, are determined in terms of the redshift for this model.Comment: To appear in MNRAS, 7 pages, 5 eps figure

Elevated expression of c-kit in small venous malformations of blue rubber bleb nevus syndrome

The blue rubber bleb nevus syndrome (BRBNS, syn. bean syndrome) is a rare disease characterized by multiple cutaneous and gastrointestinal venous malformations associated with severe bleeding. However, the underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown and no targeted therapeutic approach exists to date. Here we report the case of a 19-year-old male patient with severe BRBNS in whom we analyzed the expression of tyrosine kinases frequently involved in tumor development by immunohistochemistry (vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-2, stem cell growth factor receptor (c-kit), platelet-derived growth factor receptor-β, and stem cell tyrosine kinase-1). A prominent expression of c-kit was detectable in smaller blood vessels, which also showed a moderate expression of the proliferation marker MIB1. Surprisingly, other growth factor receptors stained negatively. We therefore conclude that pharmacological inhibition of the c-kit signaling pathway in cavernous hemangiomas by selective kinase inhibitors may offer options in the treatment of BRBNS patients

Adjuvant therapy of osteosarcoma—A Phase II trial

BACKGROUND The objective of this study was to estimate the time to treatment failure and survival rate of the three-drug combination of doxorubicin, cisplatin, and ifosfamide as primary and postoperative, adjunctive treatment for teenagers and adults with osteosarcoma (OS). METHODS Sixty-three eligible patients with nonmetastatic OS of the extremities were registered from 24 institutions from February, 1992 through December, 1996. Chemotherapy was comprised of doxorubicin at a dose of 75 mg/m 2 and cisplatin at a dose of 120 mg/m 2 , alternating with doxorubicin at a dose of 50 mg/m 2 and ifosfamide at a dose of 8 g/m 2 . Four cycles were given prior to surgical resection, and four cycles were given after surgery. Outcome measures included the time to treatment failure, overall survival, toxicity, and centralized assessment of tumor necrosis. RESULTS Thirty-one of 63 eligible patients died, for a 5-year overall survival rate of 58% (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 46–71%). The median time to treatment failure was 19 months (95% CI, 12–41 months). A good pathologic response (≥ 90% necrosis) to neoadjuvant chemotherapy was observed in 48% of patients who underwent surgery. There was no correlation noted between response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and patient outcome. Grade 4 hematologic toxicities were frequent (89%), although serious nonhematologic toxicities other than nausea and emesis were uncommon. CONCLUSIONS The regimen and schedule used in the current study did not improve outcomes compared with prior trials of doxorubicin and cisplatin alone. New, more effective drugs are needed for the treatment of patients with OS. The identification and utilization of molecular markers to predict outcome and response to therapy would facilitate clinical management, limiting exposure to toxic therapies for patients with favorable molecular profiles and identifying those patients who may fail with current approaches as candidates for clinical trials. Cancer 2004;100:818–25. © 2004 American Cancer Society.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/34384/1/20021_ftp.pd

A phase I trial of S-1 with concurrent radiotherapy for locally advanced pancreatic cancer

This study investigated the maximum tolerated dose of S-1 based on the frequency of its dose-limiting toxicities (DLT) with concurrent radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer. S-1 was administered orally at escalating doses from 50 to 80 mg m−2 b.i.d. on the day of irradiation during radiotherapy. Radiation therapy was delivered through four fields as a total dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions over 5.5 weeks, and no prophylactic nodal irradiation was given. Twenty-one patients (50 three; 60 five; 70 six; 80 mg m−2 seven patients) were enrolled in this trial. At a dose of 70 mg m−2 S-1, two of six patients demonstrated DLT involving grade 3 nausea and vomiting and grade 3 haemorrhagic gastritis, whereas no patients at doses other than 70 mg m−2 demonstrated any sign of DLT. Among the 21 enrolled patients, four (19.0%) showed a partial response. The median progression-free survival time and median survival time for the patients overall were 8.9 and 11.0 months, respectively. The recommended dose of S-1 therapy with concurrent radiotherapy is 80 mg m−2 day−1. A multi-institutional phase II trial of this regimen in patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer is now underway

Dose Escalation Methods in Phase I Cancer Clinical Trials

Phase I clinical trials are an essential step in the development of anticancer drugs. The main goal of these studies is to establish the recommended dose and/or schedule of new drugs or drug combinations for phase II trials. The guiding principle for dose escalation in phase I trials is to avoid exposing too many patients to subtherapeutic doses while preserving safety and maintaining rapid accrual. Here we review dose escalation methods for phase I trials, including the rule-based and model-based dose escalation methods that have been developed to evaluate new anticancer agents. Toxicity has traditionally been the primary endpoint for phase I trials involving cytotoxic agents. However, with the emergence of molecularly targeted anticancer agents, potential alternative endpoints to delineate optimal biological activity, such as plasma drug concentration and target inhibition in tumor or surrogate tissues, have been proposed along with new trial designs. We also describe specific methods for drug combinations as well as methods that use a time-to-event endpoint or both toxicity and efficacy as endpoints. Finally, we present the advantages and drawbacks of the various dose escalation methods and discuss specific applications of the methods in developmental oncotherapeutics

Dust environment and dynamical history of a sample of short-period comets: II. 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2

Aims. This paper is a continuation of the first paper in this series, where we presented an extended study of the dust environment of a sample of short-period comets and their dynamical history. On this occasion, we focus on comets 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2, which are of special interest as targets of the spacecraft missions Stardust and EPOXI. Methods. As in the previous study, we used two sets of observational data: a set of images, acquired at Sierra Nevada and Lulin observatories, and the Afρ data as a function of the heliocentric distance provided by the amateur astronomical association Cometas-Obs. The dust environment of comets (dust loss rate, ejection velocities, and size distribution of the particles) was derived from our Monte Carlo dust tail code. To determine their dynamical history we used the numerical integrator Mercury 6.2 to ascertain the time spent by these objects in the Jupiter family Comet region. Results. From the dust analysis, we conclude that both 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2 are dusty comets, with an annual dust production rate of 2.8 × 109 kg yr-1 and (0.4-1.5) × 109 kg yr-1, respectively. From the dynamical analysis, we determined their time spent in the Jupiter family Comet region as ~40 yr in the case of 81P/Wild 2 and ~1000 yr for comet 103P/Hartley 2. These results imply that 81P/Wild 2 is the youngest and the most active comet of the eleven short-period comets studied so far, which tends to favor the correlation between the time spent in JFCs region and the comet activity previously discussed