Controlling dengue: an uphill task?

Mosquito-borne dengue viral fever is one of the fastest spreading global health hazards of recent times. Although it has been widespread especially in the tropics, dengue came into prominence since the early 1950’s following the epidemic in south East Asia. The commonest presentation of Dengue Fever is characterized by high fever, severe headaches, muscle pain and skin rash. This is the primary form and is less serious than the deadly secondary form referred to as Dengue hemorrhagic fever. The latter mainly affects most Asian and Latin American countries and has become a leading cause of hospitalization and death among children in these regions.1 It is estimated that 390 million dengue infections occur per year of which about 25% present with clinical manifestations

Right hepatic artery encircle the gallbladder: a case report

Detailed knowledge of the vascular anatomy of hepatobiliary system is important for a safe cholecystectomy. We are reporting a case of aberrant type of right hepatic artery originating from superior mesenteric artery and encircles the gallbladder that has been found during laparoscopic cholecystectomy operation. We presented a 39-year-old Malay lady came to International Islamic University Malaysia Medical Centre with features of obstructive jaundice. Ultrasound of hepatobiliary system showed cholelithiasis with choledocholithiasis causing dilatation of the common bile duct. ERCP had been performed and sphincterotomy was done. Patient was planned for laparoscopic cholecystectomy. Intraoperatively, the Calot’s triangle was identified in usual manner. However, the right hepatic artery was identified encircling the gallbladder body anteriorly before entering the liver. The procedure was converted to open cholecystectomy due to anatomical variation via Kocher’s incision. Further identification upon open cholecystectomy revealed right hepatic artery originates from superior mesenteric artery runs anterior to cystic duct and encircles the gallbladder before further branches into right and left lobe of the liver. Right hepatic artery was dissected from the gallbladder and the gallbladder removed after cystic duct ligation and separation from the liver bed. On table cholangiogram showed distal CBD stone which was pushed down to duodenum with forceps? Post-operative was uneventful and patient liver functions improved. Knowledge regarding anatomical structure and variant of hepatic artery as well as cystic artery and cystic duct is important to ensure the inadvertent ligation of right hepatic artery which would leads to hepatic ischemia and necrosis

Adrenal cavernous hemangioma: a rare incidental finding from a routine ultrasound assessment

Cavernous hemangioma of the adrenal gland is a very rare benign vascular tumour. Its rarity and non-specific presentation pose a challenge to the radiologists and surgeons in making the correct diagnosis. We report a case of adrenal cavernous hemangioma in a 76-years old gentleman, in which a large heterogeneous mass was incidentally found at his left hypochondriac region during a routine KUB and prostate ultrasound assessment for benign prostatic hyperplasia. A multiphasic CT study performed and revealed a large mass with a maximum diameter of 18 cm occupying the left suprarenal area. Considering the large size of the left suprarenal mass with mass effect to the surrounding structures, the patient undergone left adrenalectomy. His final histopathological diagnosis revealed a cavernous hemangioma. This case highlighted literature review and role of imaging in this extremely rare benign tumour as one of the differential diagnoses of an adrenal incidentaloma

The sensitivity and specificity of methylene blue dye as a single agent in sentinel lymph node biopsy for early breast cancer

Introduction: Axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), although associated with significant morbidity, has been the standard procedure for axillary staging for breast cancer in many hospitals in Malaysia. The limited resources for radioisotope tracer and nuclear medicine service, coupled with insufficient number of trained surgeons, have been the major obstacles to perform sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Materials and Methods: This study looks into the application of 1% methylene blue dye (MBD) as a single agent for SLNB and observes the outcome and any associated complication. Thirty-four patients with early breast cancer were enrolled. Two millilitres (ml) of 1% MBD was diluted with saline to a total volume of 5 ml. After induction of general anaesthesia, 3 ml of the diluted 1% MBD is injected subdermally at the upper outer quadrant of the breast followed by 5 minutes of massage. Sentinel nodes are identified as blue nodes or lymph nodes with a blue-stained lymphatic channel and were surgically removed. All patients then underwent tumour excision, either mastectomy or breast-conserving surgery, and ALND. The sentinel nodes were categorized to positive or negative for metastases and were compared with axillary lymph nodes for diagnostic value assessment. Results: Identification rate of sentinel nodes was 91.2%. The mean number of removed sentinel nodes was 2 (SD=1) and the mean number of axillary nodes was 16 (SD=6). Sentinel node metastasis was found in 13 (41.9%) cases. There were two false-negative cases, resulting in a sensitivity of 86.7% (95%CI: 62.1-96.3). The negative predictive value of sentinel nodes to predict axillary metastasis was 88.9% (95%CI: 67.296.9). There were no complications observed. Conclusion: Although inferior to the standard dual-tracer technique, the usage of MBD as a single agent in SLNB for early breast cancer still offers favourable accuracy and identification rate. With continuous training and improved surgeons experience, performing SLNB with blue dye alone is feasible in order to reduce the risks and morbidities associated with ALND

Immunoinformatics design of multivalent epitope vaccine against monkeypox virus and its variants using membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins as targets

IntroductionThe current monkeypox (MPX) outbreak, caused by the monkeypox virus (MPXV), has turned into a global concern, with over 59,000 infection cases and 23 deaths worldwide.ObjectivesHerein, we aimed to exploit robust immunoinformatics approach, targeting membrane-bound, enveloped, and extracellular proteins of MPXV to formulate a chimeric antigen. Such a strategy could similarly be applied for identifying immunodominant epitopes and designing multi-epitope vaccine ensembles in other pathogens responsible for chronic pathologies that are difficult to intervene against.MethodsA reverse vaccinology pipeline was used to select 11 potential vaccine candidates, which were screened and mapped to predict immunodominant B-cell and T-cell epitopes. The finalized epitopes were merged with the aid of suitable linkers, an adjuvant (Resuscitation-promoting factor), a PADRE sequence (13 aa), and an HIV TAT sequence (11 aa) to formulate a multivalent epitope vaccine. Bioinformatics tools were employed to carry out codon adaptation and computational cloning. The tertiary structure of the chimeric vaccine construct was modeled via I-TASSER, and its interaction with Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) was evaluated using molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation. C-ImmSim server was implemented to examine the immune response against the designed multi-epitope antigen.Results and discussionThe designed chimeric vaccine construct included 21 immunodominant epitopes (six B-cell, eight cytotoxic T lymphocyte, and seven helper T-lymphocyte) and is predicted non-allergen, antigenic, soluble, with suitable physicochemical features, that can promote cross-protection among the MPXV strains. The selected epitopes indicated a wide global population coverage (93.62%). Most finalized epitopes have 70%–100% sequence similarity with the experimentally validated immune epitopes of the vaccinia virus, which can be helpful in the speedy progression of vaccine design. Lastly, molecular docking and molecular dynamics simulation computed stable and energetically favourable interaction between the putative antigen and TLR4.ConclusionOur results show that the multi-epitope vaccine might elicit cellular and humoral immune responses and could be a potential vaccine candidate against the MPXV infection. Further experimental testing of the proposed vaccine is warranted to validate its safety and efficacy profile

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination modelling for safe surgery to save lives: data from an international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative SARS-CoV-2 vaccination could support safer elective surgery. Vaccine numbers are limited so this study aimed to inform their prioritization by modelling. Methods: The primary outcome was the number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one COVID-19-related death in 1 year. NNVs were based on postoperative SARS-CoV-2 rates and mortality in an international cohort study (surgical patients), and community SARS-CoV-2 incidence and case fatality data (general population). NNV estimates were stratified by age (18–49, 50–69, 70 or more years) and type of surgery. Best- and worst-case scenarios were used to describe uncertainty. Results: NNVs were more favourable in surgical patients than the general population. The most favourable NNVs were in patients aged 70 years or more needing cancer surgery (351; best case 196, worst case 816) or non-cancer surgery (733; best case 407, worst case 1664). Both exceeded the NNV in the general population (1840; best case 1196, worst case 3066). NNVs for surgical patients remained favourable at a range of SARS-CoV-2 incidence rates in sensitivity analysis modelling. Globally, prioritizing preoperative vaccination of patients needing elective surgery ahead of the general population could prevent an additional 58 687 (best case 115 007, worst case 20 177) COVID-19-related deaths in 1 year. Conclusion: As global roll out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination proceeds, patients needing elective surgery should be prioritized ahead of the general population

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022–2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. Methods: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. Findings: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8–63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0–45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2–34·1] to 15·5% [13·7–17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4–40·3) to 41·1% (33·9–48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6–25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5–43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5–17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7–11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7–27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5–6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2–26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [–0·6 to 3·6]). Interpretation: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised