A critical analysis of regulated river ecosystem responses to managed environmental flows from reservoirs

Summary 1.The flow regime of a river is fundamental in determining its ecological characteristics. Impoundment of rivers has been documented to severely impact the natural flow regime, resulting in abiotic and biotic changes in downstream ecosystems. Contemporary water legislation is driving increasing concern among environmentalists and water resource managers with respect to how these impacts can be mitigated. This has stimulated research aimed at assessing the relationship between reservoir outflow modification (i.e. managed environmental flows) and downstream ecosystem responses. 2.We carried out a critical review and synthesis of the global literature concerning post-impoundment reservoir outflow modification and associated downstream biotic and abiotic responses. Seventy-six studies published between 1981 and 2012 were analysed. In contrast to previous studies of this subject, we systematically assessed the methodological quality of research to identify strengths and weaknesses of the approaches. We also undertook a novel quantification of ecosystem responses to flow modification, thus enabling identification of priorities for future research. 3.We identified that: (i) there was a research bias towards North American and Western European studies; (ii) the majority of studies reported changes in flow magnitude (e.g. artificial floods) and primarily focused on traditionally monitored ecological groups (e.g. fish); (iii) relationships between flow, biota (e.g. macroinvertebrates) and water quality (e.g. electrical conductivity and suspended solids concentration) were evident, demonstrating the potential for managed environmental flows to manipulate river ecosystems; (iv) site-specific factors (e.g. location, climate) are likely to be important as some ecosystem responses were inconsistent between studies (e.g. fish movement in response to increases in flow magnitude); and (v) quality of study design, methodological and analytical techniques varied, and these factors may have contributed to the reported variability of ecosystem response. 4.To advance scientific understanding and guide future management of regulated flow regimes, we highlight a pressing need for: (i) diversification of study locations as well as flow modification and ecosystem response types assessed; (ii) a focus on understanding flow–ecosystem response relationships at regional scales; (iii) further quantitative studies to enable robust statistical analyses in future meta-analyses; and (iv) robust monitoring of flow experiments and the use of contemporary statistical techniques to extract maximum knowledge from ecological response data

The impact of contact tracing in clustered populations

The tracing of potentially infectious contacts has become an important part of the control strategy for many infectious diseases, from early cases of novel infections to endemic sexually transmitted infections. Here, we make use of mathematical models to consider the case of partner notification for sexually transmitted infection, however these models are sufficiently simple to allow more general conclusions to be drawn. We show that, when contact network structure is considered in addition to contact tracing, standard “mass action” models are generally inadequate. To consider the impact of mutual contacts (specifically clustering) we develop an improvement to existing pairwise network models, which we use to demonstrate that ceteris paribus, clustering improves the efficacy of contact tracing for a large region of parameter space. This result is sometimes reversed, however, for the case of highly effective contact tracing. We also develop stochastic simulations for comparison, using simple re-wiring methods that allow the generation of appropriate comparator networks. In this way we contribute to the general theory of network-based interventions against infectious disease

Comparing stochastic differential equations and agent-based modelling and simulation for early-stage cancer

There is great potential to be explored regarding the use of agent-based modelling and simulation as an alternative paradigm to investigate early-stage cancer interactions with the immune system. It does not suffer from some limitations of ordinary differential equation models, such as the lack of stochasticity, representation of individual behaviours rather than aggregates and individual memory. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when contrasted with stochastic versions of ODE models using early-stage cancer examples. We seek answers to the following questions: (1) Does this new stochastic formulation produce similar results to the agent-based version? (2) Can these methods be used interchangeably? (3) Do agent-based models outcomes reveal any benefit when compared to the Gillespie results? To answer these research questions we investigate three well-established mathematical models describing interactions between tumour cells and immune elements. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and also converted to the Gillespie algorithm formulation. Our interest in this work, therefore, is to establish a methodological discussion regarding the usability of different simulation approaches, rather than provide further biological insights into the investigated case studies. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent models that implement the same mechanisms; however, the incapacity of the Gillespie algorithm to retain individual memory of past events affects the similarity of some results. Furthermore, the emergent behaviour of ABMS produces extra patters of behaviour in the system, which was not obtained by the Gillespie algorithm

Stemming the tide: progress towards resolving the causes of decline and implementing management responses for the disappearing mammal fauna of northern Australia

Introduction: Recent studies at sites in northern Australia have reported severe and rapid decline of several native mammal species, notwithstanding an environmental context (small human population size, limited habitat loss, substantial reservation extent) that should provide relative conservation security. All of the more speciose taxonomic groups of mammals in northern Australia have some species for which their conservation status has been assessed as threatened, with 53 % of dasyurid, 47 % of macropod and potoroid, 33 % of bandicoot and bilby, 33 % of possum, 30 % of rodent, and 24 % of bat species being assessed as extinct, threatened or near threatened. However, the geographical extent and timing of declines, and their causes, remain poorly resolved, limiting the application of remedial management actions.\ud \ud Material and methods: Focusing on the tropical savannas of northern Australia, this paper reviews disparate recent and ongoing studies that provide information on population trends across a broader geographic scope than the previously reported sites, and examines the conservation status and trends for mammal groups (bats, macropods) not well sampled in previous monitoring studies. It describes some diverse approaches of studies seeking to document conservation status and trends, and of the factors that may be contributing to observed patterns of decline.\ud \ud Results and Discussion: Current trends and potential causal factors for declines. The studies reported demonstrate that the extent and timing of impacts and threats have been variable across the region, although there is a general gradational pattern of earlier and more severe decline from inland lower rainfall areas to higher rainfall coastal regions. Some small isolated areas appear to have retained their mammal species, as have many islands which remain critical refuges. There is now some compelling evidence that predation by feral cats is implicated in the observed decline, with those impacts likely to be exacerbated by prevailing fire regimes (frequent, extensive and intense fire), by reduction in ground vegetation cover due to livestock and, in some areas, by 'control' of dingoes. However the impacts of dingoes may be complex, and are not yet well resolved in this area. The relative impacts of these individual factors vary spatially (with most severe impacts in higher rainfall and more rugged areas) and between different mammal species, with some species responding idiosyncratically: the most notable example is the rapid decline of the northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) due to poisoning by the introduced cane toad (Rhinella marina), which continues to spread extensively across northern Australia. The impact of disease, if any, remains unresolved.\ud \ud Conservation Management Responses. Recovery of the native mammal fauna may be impossible in some areas. However, there are now examples of rapid recovery following threat management. Priority conservation actions include: enhanced biosecurity for important islands, establishment of a network of feral predator exclosures, intensive fire management (aimed at increasing the extent of longer-unburnt habitat and in delivering fine scale patch burning), reduction in feral stock in conservation reserves, and acquisition for conservation purposes of some pastoral lands in areas that are significant for mammal conservation

Linear mapping approximation of gene regulatory networks with stochastic dynamics

The intractability of most stochastic models of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) limits their utility. Here, the authors present a linear-mapping approximation mapping models onto simpler ones, giving approximate but accurate analytic or semi- analytic solutions for a wide range of model GRNs

Delayed Differentiation Makes Many Models Compatible with Data for CD8+ T Cell Differentiation

Upon antigen stimulation, naïve CD8+ T cells differentiate into short-lived effectors and longer-lived memory T cells. The kinetics of expansion of antigen-specific CD8+ T cells is highly reproducible at the population level, but the fate of individual naïve cells is stochastic, as individual naïve CD8+ T cells produce different numbers of effector and memory cells. Using mathematical models to analyse experimental data on tracing the fate of individual naïve T cells, it was previously shown that a linear model where naïve CD8+ T cells first differentiate into memory precursors that subsequently differentiate into effector cells describes the data best. However, this ‘memory first’ linear model assumed that the proliferation and differentiation events were distributed exponentially, whereas several studies indicate that differentiation of CD8+ T cell subsets need not follow an exponential distribution. Here we investigate the effect of delayed differentiation by adding intermediate compartments and use similar ordinary differential equations and Gillespie simulations to evaluate alternate models of CD8+ T cell differentiation. Models where a substantial fraction of the naïve CD8+ T cells directly differentiate into effector cells, without going through a memory phase, exhibit population dynamics that are very similar to the original ‘memory first’ linear model. Because alternate models with delayed differentiation perform better than those without a delay, we conclude that non-exponential forms of cellular differentiation need to be considered when comparing models. Hence the exact pathway for the differentiation of naïve CD8+ T cells into effector and memory T cells remains an open question

Evolution with Stochastic Fitness and Stochastic Migration

Migration between local populations plays an important role in evolution - influencing local adaptation, speciation, extinction, and the maintenance of genetic variation. Like other evolutionary mechanisms, migration is a stochastic process, involving both random and deterministic elements. Many models of evolution have incorporated migration, but these have all been based on simplifying assumptions, such as low migration rate, weak selection, or large population size. We thus have no truly general and exact mathematical description of evolution that incorporates migration.We derive an exact equation for directional evolution, essentially a stochastic Price equation with migration, that encompasses all processes, both deterministic and stochastic, contributing to directional change in an open population. Using this result, we show that increasing the variance in migration rates reduces the impact of migration relative to selection. This means that models that treat migration as a single parameter tend to be biassed - overestimating the relative impact of immigration. We further show that selection and migration interact in complex ways, one result being that a strategy for which fitness is negatively correlated with migration rates (high fitness when migration is low) will tend to increase in frequency, even if it has lower mean fitness than do other strategies. Finally, we derive an equation for the effective migration rate, which allows some of the complex stochastic processes that we identify to be incorporated into models with a single migration parameter.As has previously been shown with selection, the role of migration in evolution is determined by the entire distributions of immigration and emigration rates, not just by the mean values. The interactions of stochastic migration with stochastic selection produce evolutionary processes that are invisible to deterministic evolutionary theory

Viscoelastic haemostatic assay augmented protocols for major trauma haemorrhage (ITACTIC): a randomized, controlled trial

Purpose: Contemporary trauma resuscitation prioritizes control of bleeding and uses major haemorrhage protocols (MHPs) to prevent and treat coagulopathy. We aimed to determine whether augmenting MHPs with Viscoelastic Haemostatic Assays (VHA) would improve outcomes compared to Conventional Coagulation Tests (CCTs). Methods: This was a multi-centre, randomized controlled trial comparing outcomes in trauma patients who received empiric MHPs, augmented by either VHA or CCT-guided interventions. Primary outcome was the proportion of subjects who, at 24 h after injury, were alive and free of massive transfusion (10 or more red cell transfusions). Secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality. Pre-specified subgroups included patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Results: Of 396 patients in the intention to treat analysis, 201 were allocated to VHA and 195 to CCT-guided therapy. At 24 h, there was no difference in the proportion of patients who were alive and free of massive transfusion (VHA: 67%, CCT: 64%, OR 1.15, 95% CI 0.76–1.73). 28-day mortality was not different overall (VHA: 25%, CCT: 28%, OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.54–1.31), nor were there differences in other secondary outcomes or serious adverse events. In pre-specified subgroups, there were no differences in primary outcomes. In the pre-specified subgroup of 74 patients with TBI, 64% were alive and free of massive transfusion at 24 h compared to 46% in the CCT arm (OR 2.12, 95% CI 0.84–5.34). Conclusion: There was no difference in overall outcomes between VHA- and CCT-augmented-major haemorrhage protocols

The association between timed up and go test and history of falls: The Tromsø study

BACKGROUND: Fall-related injuries in older adults are a major health problem. Although the aetiology of falls is multifactorial, physical factors are assumed to contribute significantly. The "Timed up and go test" (TUG) is designed to measure basic mobility function. This report evaluates the association between TUG times and history of falls. METHODS: A retrospective, observational, population-based study was conducted on 414 men and 560 women with mean age 77.5 (SD 2.3). TUG time and falls during the previous 12 months were recorded. Covariates were age, sex, medical history and health-related mobility problems. Means, confidence intervals and test characteristics for TUG were calculated. Odds ratios and influence of covariates were examined by logistic regression. RESULTS: The mean TUG time was 11.1s (SD 2.5) among male non-fallers and 13.0s (SD 7.8) among fallers. The difference was 1.9s (95%CI 0.9–3.0). The odds ratio for fallers being in the upper quartile was 2.1 (95%CI 1.4–3.3). Adjusted for covariates, the odds ratio was (OR = 1.8, 95%CI 1.1–2.9). The corresponding mean was 13.0s (SD 5.74) among female non-fallers and 13.9s (SD 8.5) among fallers. The difference was 0.9 (95%CI -0.3–2.1). The odds ratio for fallers being in upper quartile was 1.0 (95%CI 0.7–1.4). The area under the ROC curve was 0.50 (95%CI 0.45–0.55) in women and 0.56 (95%CI 0.50–0.62) in men. CONCLUSION: TUG is statistically associated with a history of falls in men but not in women. The ability to classify fallers is poor, and the clinical value of the association is therefore limited

Mechanistic interplay between ceramide and insulin resistance

Recent research adds to a growing body of literature on the essential role of ceramides in glucose homeostasis and insulin signaling, while the mechanistic interplay between various components of ceramide metabolism remains to be quantified. We present an extended model of C16:0 ceramide production through both the de novo synthesis and the salvage pathways. We verify our model with a combination of published models and independent experimental data. In silico experiments of the behavior of ceramide and related bioactive lipids in accordance with the observed transcriptomic changes in obese/diabetic murine macrophages at 5 and 16 weeks support the observation of insulin resistance only at the later phase. Our analysis suggests the pivotal role of ceramide synthase, serine palmitoyltransferase and dihydroceramide desaturase involved in the de novo synthesis and the salvage pathways in influencing insulin resistance versus its regulation