Estimating volcanic deformation source parameters with a Finite Element inversion: the 2001-2002 unrest at Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Deformation at Cotopaxi was observed between 2001 and 2002 along with recorded seismicity beneath the northeast (NE) flank, despite the fact that the last eruption occurred in 1942. We use electronic distance meter deformation data along with the patterns of recorded seismicity to constrain the cause of this unrest episode. To solve for the optimum deformation source parameters we employ inverse finite element (FE) models that account for material heterogeneities and surface topography. For a range of source shapes the models converge on a shallow reservoir beneath the southwest (SW) flank. The individual best fit model is a small oblate-shaped source, approximately 4–5 km beneath the summit, with a volume increase of roughly 20 × 106 m3. This SW source location contrasts with the NE seismicity locations. Subsequently, further FE models that additionally account for temperature-dependent viscoelasticity are used to reconcile the deformation and seismicity simultaneously. Comparisons of elastic and viscous timescales allude to aseismic pressurization of a small magma reservoir in the SW. Seismicity in the NE is then explained through a mechanism of fluid migration from the SW to the NE along fault systems. We extend our analyses to further show that if future unrest crises are accompanied by measurable seismicity around the deformation source, this could indicate a higher magma supply rate and increased likelihood of a forthcoming eruption.The data informing this paper is available upon request to the lead author. This work was supported by the European Commission, Framework Program 7 (grant 282759, VUELCO, and grant 308665, MEDSUV), the Natural Environmental Research Council (NE/G01843X/1), and the Royal Society (UF090006). We thank reviewers A. Gudmundsson and L. Crescentini, and Editor A. Revil, for their comments which helped to improve the paper. We also thank Mark Jellinek for thoughtful discussions during manuscript preparation

Lava flow morphology at an erupting andesitic stratovolcano: a satellite perspective on El Reventador, Ecuador

Lava flows pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and property located close to volcanoes, and understanding how flows advance is necessary to manage volcanic hazard during eruptions. Compared to low-silica basaltic flows, flows of andesite composition are infrequently erupted and so relatively few studies of their characteristics and behaviour exist. We use El Reventador, Ecuador as a target to investigate andesitic lava flow properties during a 4.5 year period of extrusive eruption between February 2012 and August 2016. We use satellite radar to map the dimensions of 43 lava flows and look at variations in their emplacement behaviour over time. We find that flows descend the north and south flanks of El Reventador, and were mostly emplaced during durations shorter than the satellite repeat interval of 24 days.Flows ranged in length from 0.3 to 1.7 km, and the length of these flows decreased over the observation period. We measure a decrease in flow volume with time that is correlated with a long-term exponential decrease in eruption rate, and propose that this behaviour is caused by temporary magma storage in the conduit acting as a melt capacitor between the magma reservoir and the surface. We use the dimensions of the flow levees and widths to estimate the flow yield strengths, which were of the order of 10-100 kPa. We observe that some flows were diverted by topographic obstacles, and compare measurements of decreased channel width and increased flow thickness at the obstacles with observations from laboratory experiments. Radar observations, such as those presented here, could be used to map and measure properties of evolving lava flow fields at other remote or difficult to monitor volcanoes

Rapid localized flank inflation and implications for potential slope instability at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

This is the final version. Available on open access from Elsevier via the DOI in this recordHigh rates of volcano surface deformation can be indicative of a forthcoming eruption, but can also relate to slope instability and possible flank collapse. Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, has been persistently active since 1999 and has previously experienced catastrophic flank failures. During the ongoing eruptive activity, significant surface deformation has been observed, with the highest rates contained within the amphitheatre-shaped scar from the 3000-year-old failure on the west flank However, the cause of this asymmetric deformation and how it might relate to slope stability has not been assessed. Here, for the first time, we present a range of models to test physical processes that might produce asymmetric deformation, which are then applied to slope stability. Our models are informed by InSAR measurements of a deformation episode in November 2015, which show a maximum displacement of ~3.5 cm over a period of ~3 weeks, during which time the volcano also experienced multiple explosions and heightened seismicity. Asymmetric flank material properties, from the rebuilding of the cone, cannot explain the full magnitude and spatial footprint of the observed west flank deformation. The inflation is inferred to be primarily caused by shallow, short35 term, pre-eruptive magma storage that preferentially exploits the 3 ka flank collapse surface. Shallow and rapid pressurization from this inclined deformation source can generate shear stress along the collapse surface, which increases with greater volumes of magma. This may contribute to slope instability during future unrest episodes and promote flank failure, with general application to other volcanoes worldwide displaying asymmetric deformation patterns.Royal SocietyNatural Environment Research Council (NERC)Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC

Decaying lava extrusion rate at El Reventador Volcano, Ecuador measured using high-resolution satellite radar

Lava extrusion at erupting volcanoes causes rapid changes in topography and morphology on the order of tens or even hundreds of metres. Satellite radar provides a method for measuring changes in topographic height over a given time period to an accuracy of metres, either by measuring the width of radar shadow cast by steep sided features, or by measuring the difference in radar phase between two sensors separated in space. We measure height changes, and hence estimate extruded lava volume flux, at El Reventador, Ecuador between 2011 and 2016, using data from the Radarsat-2 and TanDEM-X satellite missions. We find 39 new lava flows were extruded between 9 February 2012 and 24 August 2016, with a cumulative volume of 44.8M m3 dense rock equivalent and a gradually decreasing eruption rate. The average dense rock rate of lava extrusion during this time is 0.31 ± 0.02 m3s−1, which is similar to the long term average from 1972 to 2016. Apart from a volumetrically small dyke opening event between 9 March and 10 June 2012, lava extrusion at El Reventador is not accompanied by any significant magmatic ground deformation. We use a simple physics-based model to estimate that the volume of the magma reservoir under El Reventador is greater than 3 km3. Our lava extrusion data can be equally well fit by models representing a closed reservoir depressurising during the eruption with no magma recharge, or an open reservoir with a time-constant magma recharge rate of up to 0.35 ± 0.01 m3s−

Using satellite radar amplitude imaging for monitoring syn-eruptive changes in surface morphology at an ice-capped stratovolcano

Satellite-based measurements of synthetic aperture radar amplitude provide a method for monitoring volcanoes during unrest and eruptions even when visual observations are not possible, for example due to poor weather or at night, and when radar phase measurements are noisy or decorrelated. Here, we use high resolution radar amplitude images from the TerraSAR-X and COSMO SkyMed satellites to investigate surface changes associated with explosive eruptions of Cotopaxi volcano, Ecuador in August 2015. We generate change difference and amplitude ratio maps spanning the start of explosive activity at Cotopaxi, which show complex spatial variations in radar amplitude both on and around the summit ice-cap that we attribute to a number of processes related to the eruption. Observed amplitude decreases are caused by crater deepening, ashfall onto ice and surface smoothing by ashfall onto slopes facing away from the satellite, while amplitude increases are due to deposition of coarse lapilli and wet tephra, increased soil saturation due to geothermally driven glacier melting, and smoothing of slopes facing towards the satellite. We discuss the potential applications of radar amplitude images for monitoring and hazard evaluation at active volcanoes

Aquatic community response to volcanic eruptions on the Ecuadorian Andean flank: evidence from the palaeoecological record

Aquatic ecosystems in the tropical Andes are under increasing pressure from human modification of the landscape (deforestation and dams) and climatic change (increase of extreme events and 1.5 °C on average temperatures are projected for AD 2100). However, the resilience of these ecosystems to perturbations is poorly understood. Here we use a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach to assess the response of aquatic ecosystems to a major mechanism for natural disturbance, volcanic ash deposition. Specifically, we present data from two Neotropical lakes located on the eastern Andean flank of Ecuador. Laguna Pindo (1°27.132′S–78°04.847′W) is a tectonically formed closed basin surrounded by a dense mid-elevation forest, whereas Laguna Baños (0°19.328′S–78°09.175′W) is a glacially formed lake with an inflow and outflow in high Andean Páramo grasslands. In each lake we examined the dynamics of chironomids and other aquatic and semi-aquatic organisms to explore the effect of thick (> 5 cm) volcanic deposits on the aquatic communities in these two systems with different catchment features. In both lakes past volcanic ash deposition was evident from four large tephras dated to c.850 cal year BP (Pindo), and 4600, 3600 and 1500 cal year BP (Baños). Examination of the chironomid and aquatic assemblages before and after the ash depositions revealed no shift in composition at Pindo, but a major change at Baños occurred after the last event around 1500 cal year BP. Chironomids at Baños changed from an assemblage dominated by Pseudochironomus and Polypedilum nubifer-type to Cricotopus/Paratrichocladius type-II, and such a dominance lasted for approximately 380 years. We suggest that, despite potential changes in the water chemistry, the major effect on the chironomid community resulted from the thickness of the tephra being deposited, which acted to shallow the water body beyond a depth threshold. Changes in the aquatic flora and fauna at the base of the trophic chain can promote cascade effects that may deteriorate the ecosystem, especially when already influenced by human activities, such as deforestation and dams, which is frequent in the high Andes