652 research outputs found

    Validating Predictions of Unobserved Quantities

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    The ultimate purpose of most computational models is to make predictions, commonly in support of some decision-making process (e.g., for design or operation of some system). The quantities that need to be predicted (the quantities of interest or QoIs) are generally not experimentally observable before the prediction, since otherwise no prediction would be needed. Assessing the validity of such extrapolative predictions, which is critical to informed decision-making, is challenging. In classical approaches to validation, model outputs for observed quantities are compared to observations to determine if they are consistent. By itself, this consistency only ensures that the model can predict the observed quantities under the conditions of the observations. This limitation dramatically reduces the utility of the validation effort for decision making because it implies nothing about predictions of unobserved QoIs or for scenarios outside of the range of observations. However, there is no agreement in the scientific community today regarding best practices for validation of extrapolative predictions made using computational models. The purpose of this paper is to propose and explore a validation and predictive assessment process that supports extrapolative predictions for models with known sources of error. The process includes stochastic modeling, calibration, validation, and predictive assessment phases where representations of known sources of uncertainty and error are built, informed, and tested. The proposed methodology is applied to an illustrative extrapolation problem involving a misspecified nonlinear oscillator

    Environmental Psychology for the 21st Century : the Challenge of Sustainable Development

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    ABSTRACT: With the millennium upon us, environmental psychology needs to take account of two variables which have, until now, been inadequately considered: intercultural differences and the temporal dimension of people - environment relations. The cultural factor cannot be ignored in western societies which are increasingly intercultural, and our relation to the built as well as the natural environment needs to be analysed in terms of temporality. This paper analyses the impact of intercultural factors and the time perspective on four levels of analysis the micro-environment, the proximate environment, urban environment and the global environment. To look at these four levels and at their interrelations is particularly important when we have to meet the sustainable development exigencies towards the individual’s well-being and quality of life, which are dependent on cultural specific needs.RESUMEN: Con la llegada del Nuevo milenio, la psicología ambiental necesita tomar en cuenta dos variables que fueron, hasta hoy, consideradas de manera inadecuada: las diferencias interculturales y la dimensión temporal de las relaciones individuo - medio ambiente. El factor cultural no puede ser ignorado en las sociedades occidentales que son crecientemente interculturales, y nuestra relación tanto con el ambiente construido como con el ambiente natural necesita ser analizado en términos de temporalidad. Este trabajo analiza el impacto de los factores culturales y de la perspectiva temporal en los cuatros niveles de análisis: el micro-ambiente, el ambiente próximo, el ambiente urbano y el ambiente global. Interesarse en esos cuatro niveles y sus interelaciones es particularmente importante ya que tenemos que cumplir con las exigencias del desarrollo sustentable con respecto al bienestar y la calidad de vida del individuo que son dependientes de necesidades culturalmente específicas

    Psicologia Ambiental e estudos pessoas-ambiente: que tipo de colaboração multidisciplinar?

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    Cet article cherche à définir quelles sont les collaborations existantes entre la Psychologie Environmentale et les différentes études personnes-environnement.à partir des travaux inscrits au Congrès IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). Dans la relation entre transdisciplinarité, pluridisciplinarité et interdisciplinarité, il estime que le fonctionnement scientifique est nécessairement monodisciplinaire, tandis que l'intervention dans les relations personnes-environnement implique une dynamique complexe. Quant à l'intervention (maniement socio-environnemental), il différencie deux types de fonctionnement: l'interdisciplinaire et le transdisciplinaire. Il en conclut que ce n'est que la connaissance qui intègre les différentes optiques disciplinaires dans des optiques transdisciplinaires qui fournira une réponse adéquate aux défis de ce nouveau siècle.This article aims to show the existing collaborations between Environmental Psychology and the diverse people-environment studies, based on the works presented in the Congress IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). In the relation between transdisciplinarity, pluridisciplinarity and interdisciplinarity, it understands that scientific functioning is necessarily mono-disciplinary, while intervention in people-environment relations involves a complex dynamics. As for intervention (socio-environmental handling), it distinguishes two types of functioning: interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary. It concludes that only the knowledge that integrates the several disciplinary approaches into transdisciplinary approaches will provide an adequate answer to the challenges of this new century.Este artigo procura definir quais as colaborações existentes entre a Psicologia Ambiental e os diversos estudos pessoas-ambiente a partir dos trabalhos inscritos no Congresso IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). Na relação entre transdiciplinaridade, pluridisciplinaridade e interdisciplinaridade, entende que o funcionamento científico é necessariamente mono-disciplinar, enquanto a intervenção nas relações pessoas-ambiente envolve uma dinâmica complexa. Quanto à intervenção (manejo sócio-ambiental), distingue dois tipos de funcionamento: interdisciplinar e transdisciplinar. Conclui por um conhecimento que integre as diversas abordagens disciplinares em abordagens transdiciplinares

    Globalización y sociabilidad urbana: hitos para una educación hacia la ciudadanía

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    La calidad de vida y el bienestar en los ambientes urbanos son los requisitos para la ciudadanía, como condición del desarrollo sostenible. Sin una identidad urbana y una apropiación de la ciudad, no es posible la educación cívica. De aquí la importancia de la educación en la consolidación de una ciudadanía urbana. Dos aspectos sostienen la vida urbana de manera sostenible: 1) la apropiación del lugar de residencia, por ejemplo, el arraigo territorial, y 2) las redes sociales e interpersonales desarrolladas dentro de la ciudad. Los individuos a menudo se unen de manera espontánea o se agrupan en un territorio urbano de acuerdo con sus afinidades sociales, culturales, étnicas o económicas, y forman distritos más o menos homogéneos que tienden a singularizarse dentro de la comunidad urbana o en su totalidad. La educación representa un papel importante al preparar a los individuos para considerarse a sí mismos como ciudadanos dentro de la diversidad urbana. Esto se puede lograr al intervenir en dos aspectos complementarios e interconectados: las dimensiones física y social del ambiente urbano. El primer aspecto tiene que ver con el tejido urbano como espacio de vida. El segundo, con la diversidad social. El aislamiento del individuo de la comunidad puede prevenirse únicamente a través de la educación en la aceptación de la diversidad y de los fines comunes que persiguen las personas. Trabajar en pro de ciudades sostenibles implica favorecer una cultura ciudadana y promover nuevas políticas de cohesión y cooperación

    Psicologia Ambiental e estudos pessoas-ambiente: que tipo de colaboração multidisciplinar?

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    Cet article cherche à définir quelles sont les collaborations existantes entre la Psychologie Environmentale et les différentes études personnes-environnement.à partir des travaux inscrits au Congrès IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). Dans la relation entre transdisciplinarité, pluridisciplinarité et interdisciplinarité, il estime que le fonctionnement scientifique est nécessairement monodisciplinaire, tandis que l'intervention dans les relations personnes-environnement implique une dynamique complexe. Quant à l'intervention (maniement socio-environnemental), il différencie deux types de fonctionnement: l'interdisciplinaire et le transdisciplinaire. Il en conclut que ce n'est que la connaissance qui intègre les différentes optiques disciplinaires dans des optiques transdisciplinaires qui fournira une réponse adéquate aux défis de ce nouveau siècle.This article aims to show the existing collaborations between Environmental Psychology and the diverse people-environment studies, based on the works presented in the Congress IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). In the relation between transdisciplinarity, pluridisciplinarity and interdisciplinarity, it understands that scientific functioning is necessarily mono-disciplinary, while intervention in people-environment relations involves a complex dynamics. As for intervention (socio-environmental handling), it distinguishes two types of functioning: interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary. It concludes that only the knowledge that integrates the several disciplinary approaches into transdisciplinary approaches will provide an adequate answer to the challenges of this new century.Este artigo procura definir quais as colaborações existentes entre a Psicologia Ambiental e os diversos estudos pessoas-ambiente a partir dos trabalhos inscritos no Congresso IAPS-16 (Paris, 2000). Na relação entre transdiciplinaridade, pluridisciplinaridade e interdisciplinaridade, entende que o funcionamento científico é necessariamente mono-disciplinar, enquanto a intervenção nas relações pessoas-ambiente envolve uma dinâmica complexa. Quanto à intervenção (manejo sócio-ambiental), distingue dois tipos de funcionamento: interdisciplinar e transdisciplinar. Conclui por um conhecimento que integre as diversas abordagens disciplinares em abordagens transdiciplinares

    Soil-transmitted helminthiasis: the efficacy of recommended drugs, new drugs and combinations

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    Soil-transmitted helminthiasis is caused by an infection with Ascaris lumbricoides, the hookworms Ancylostoma duodenale and Necator americanus, and Trichuris trichiura. Around the world an estimated 1.5 billion people are infected with at least one of these species. While A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura are more prevalent in school-aged children, hookworm infections are common in adults. Infected people live predominantly under poor conditions in the least developed settings. Chronic infections with soil-transmitted helminths could lead to growth stunting, intellectual impairment, cognitive and educational deficits, malnutrition, and iron deficiency anaemia. The global estimated burden of soil-transmitted helminth infections was estimated at 3.3 million disability adjusted life years in 2016. The overall aim of the PhD thesis was to contribute to better treatment options for soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We first meta-analysed the efficacy of the currently available anthelminthic drugs (albendazole, mebendazole, levamisole and pyrantel pamoate). Since none of the existing drugs have a high efficacy against all three soil-transmitted helminths and the efficacy decreased over time, new drugs or drug co-administrations (with a different efficacy profile) were evaluated during this PhD thesis in three different randomized clinical trials. In the first, a weight-independent dose of oxantel pamoate against T. trichiura was investigated, in the second, the efficacy of tribendimidine was evaluated alone and in co-administration against hookworm and in the third, the improved efficacy of triple drug therapies over co-administrations was assessed. Moreover, the new remote location online diagnostic tool FECPAKG2 was compared to the current standard method Kato-Katz

    Introduction: Environmental psychology on the move

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    Climate change adaptation in the rental sector

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    © 2015 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved. This chapter examines both assets and barriers for climate adaptation in the rental housing sector through a case study of renters and housing managers in regional Australia. The study included in-depth semi-structured interviews with 22 tenants and 17 housing managers in the public and private housing sectors. A wide range of secondary sources including media articles, sustainable renting guides and legislative and policy documents. Private sector tenants believed that negative social and political attitudes to renters in Australia were an obstacle to changing tenancy conditions and improving housing. There was a wide range of views among property managers about the importance or reality of climate change, from belief to some scepticism. Amending tenancy conditions to enhance the active contribution of tenants to climate change adaptation may require innovative legislative frameworks that reflect climate change and equity imperatives as well as protection for landlords and tenants

    Apresentação

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