The Cost of Climate Policy in the United States

We consider the cost of meeting emissions reduction targets consistent with a G8 proposal of a 50 percent global reduction in emissions by 2050, and an Obama Administration proposal of an 80 percent reduction over this period. We apply the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA), modeling these two policy scenarios if met by applying a national cap-and-trade system, and compare results with an earlier EPPA analysis of reductions of this stringency. We also test results to alternative assumptions about program coverage, banking behavior, and cost of technology in the electric power sector. Two main messages emerge from the exercise. First, technology uncertainties have a huge effect on the generation mix but only a moderate effect on the emissions price and welfare cost of achieving the assumed targets. Measured in terms of changes in economic welfare, the economic cost of 80 percent reduction by 2050 is in the range of 2 to 3% by 2050, with CO2 prices between $48 and$67 in 2015 rising to between $190 and$266 by 2050. Second, implementation matters. When an idealized economy-wide cap-and-trade is replaced by coverage omitting some sectors, or if the credibility of long-term target is weak (limiting banking behavior) prices and welfare costs change substantially.Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

Global Stability of a Premixed Reaction Zone (Time-Dependent Liñan’s Problem)

Global stability properties of a premixed, three-dimensional reaction zone are considered. In the nonadiabatic case (i.e., when there is a heat exchange between the reaction zone and the burned gases) there is a unique, spatially one-dimensional steady state that is shown to be unstable (respectively, asymptotically stable) if the reaction zone is cooled (respectively, heated) by the burned mixture. In the adiabatic case, there is a unique (up to spatial translations) steady state that is shown to be stable. In addition, the large-time asymptotic behavior of the solution is analyzed to obtain sufficient conditions on the initial data for stabilization. Previous partial numerical results on linear stability of one-dimensional reaction zones are thereby confirmed and extended

The Future of U.S. Natural Gas Production, Use, and Trade

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)Two computable general equilibrium models, one global and the other providing U.S. regional detail, are applied to analysis of the future of U.S. natural gas as an input to an MIT study of the topic. The focus is on uncertainties including the scale and cost of gas resources, the costs of competing technologies, the pattern of greenhouse gas mitigation, and the evolution of global natural gas markets. Results show that the outlook for gas over the next several decades is very favorable. In electric generation, given the unproven and relatively high cost of other low-carbon generation alternatives, gas likely is the preferred alternative to coal. A broad GHG pricing policy would increase gas use in generation but reduce use in other sectors, on a balance increasing its role from present levels. The shale gas resource is a major contributor to this optimistic view of the future of gas, but it is far from a panacea over the longer term. Gas can be an effective bridge to a lower emissions future, but investment in the development of still lower CO2 technologies remains an important priority. Also, international gas resources may well prove to be less costly than those in the U.S., except for the lowest-cost domestic shale resources, and the emergence of an integrated global gas market could result in significant U.S. gas imports.American Clean Skies Foundation, with additional support from the Hess Corporation, the Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburos (Columbia), the Energy Futures Coalition, and the MIT Energy Initiative

Short Chain Fatty Acids Taken at Time of Thrombectomy in Acute Ischemic Stroke Patients Are Independent of Stroke Severity But Associated with Inflammatory Markers and Worse Symptoms at Discharge

Introduction: Short chain fatty acids (SCFA) are gut microbiota-derived metabolites that contribute to the gut-brain axis and may impact stroke outcomes following gut dysbiosis. We evaluated plasma SCFA concentrations against stroke severity parameters and identified SCFA-associated protein networks. Methods: The Blood and Clot Thrombectomy Registry and Collaboration (BACTRAC), a continuously enrolling tissue bank, was used to obtain stroke samples. Arterial blood distal and proximal to the thrombus was obtained from Acute Ischemic Stroke (AIS) Patients (n=53) during thrombectomy. Patient demographics, stroke presentation and outcome parameters were reported. The SCFAs were isolated from proximal plasma via chemical derivatization UHPLC coupled tandem mass spectrometry using electrospray ionization and multiple reaction monitoring. Proteomic levels for 184 cardioembolic and inflammatory proteins was quantified from systemic and intracranial plasma by Olink. Arterial blood from cerebrovascular patients undergoing elective neurointerventional procedures was used as controls. Results: Acetate positively correlated with time from last known normal (LKN) and was significantly lower in stroke patients compared to control. Isobutyrate, Butyrate and 2-Methylbutyrate negatively correlated with %ΔNIHSS. Isobutyrate and 2-Methylbutyrate positively correlated with NIHSS discharge. SCFA concentrations were not associated with NIHSS admission, infarct volume, or edema volume. Multiple SCFAs positively associated with systemic and pro-inflammatory cytokines, most notably IL-6, TNF-α, VCAM1, IL-17, and MCP-1. Conclusions: Plasma SCFA concentrations taken at time of stroke are not associated with stroke severity at presentation. However, higher levels of SCFAs at the time of stroke are associated with increased markers of inflammation, less recovery from admission to discharge, and worse symptom burden at discharge

Analysis of on-sky MOAO performance of CANARY using natural guide stars

The first on-sky results obtained by CANARY, the multi-object adaptive optics (MOAO) demonstrator, are analysed. The data were recorded at the William Herschel Telescope, at the end of September 2010. We describe the command and calibrations algorithms used during the run and present the observing conditions. The processed data are MOAO-loop engaged or disengaged slopes buffers, comprising the synchronised measurements of the four natural guide stars (NGS) wavefront sensors running in parallel, and near infrared (IR) images. We describe the method we use to establish the error budget of CANARY. We are able to evaluate the tomographic and the open loop errors, having median values around 216 nm and 110 nm respectively. In addition, we identify an unexpected residual quasi-static field aberration term of mean value 110 nm. We present the detailed error budget analysed for three sets of data for three different asterisms. We compare the experimental budgets with the numerically simulated ones and demonstrate a good agreement. We find also a good agreement between the computed error budget from the slope buffers and the measured Strehl ratio on the IR images, ranging between 10% and 20% at 1530 nm. These results make us confident in our ability to establish the error budget of future MOAO instruments

SBS 1150+599A: an extremely oxygen-poor planetary nebula in the Galactic halo?

We report results of a spectrophotometric study of SBS 1150+599A and discuss the nature of this object based upon our data. Our study shows that SBS 1150+599A is most probably a planetary nebula located in the Galactic halo and not a cataclysmic variable as originally proposed by the authors of the Second Byurakan Survey from low resolution spectroscopy. We have further elaborated on the properties of SBS 1150+599A (now becoming PN G135.9+55.9) with tools used for planetary nebula analysis. Our photoionization models show that, in order to match the observational constraints, the oxygen abundance in the nebula is probably extremely low, around 1/500 solar, which is one order of magnitude lower than the most oxygen-poor planetary nebulae known so far. This finding has strong implications on our understanding of the formation of planetary nebulae and of the evolution of the Galactic halo.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysic

Efficient Algorithm on a Non-staggered Mesh for Simulating Rayleigh-Benard Convection in a Box

An efficient semi-implicit second-order-accurate finite-difference method is described for studying incompressible Rayleigh-Benard convection in a box, with sidewalls that are periodic, thermally insulated, or thermally conducting. Operator-splitting and a projection method reduce the algorithm at each time step to the solution of four Helmholtz equations and one Poisson equation, and these are are solved by fast direct methods. The method is numerically stable even though all field values are placed on a single non-staggered mesh commensurate with the boundaries. The efficiency and accuracy of the method are characterized for several representative convection problems.Comment: REVTeX, 30 pages, 5 figure

Ernst Freund as Precursor of the Rational Study of Corporate Law

Gindis, David, Ernst Freund as Precursor of the Rational Study of Corporate Law (October 27, 2017). Journal of Institutional Economics, Forthcoming. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2905547, doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2905547The rise of large business corporations in the late 19th century compelled many American observers to admit that the nature of the corporation had yet to be understood. Published in this context, Ernst Freund's little-known The Legal Nature of Corporations (1897) was an original attempt to come to terms with a new legal and economic reality. But it can also be described, to paraphrase Oliver Wendell Holmes, as the earliest example of the rational study of corporate law. The paper shows that Freund had the intuitions of an institutional economist, and engaged in what today would be called comparative institutional analysis. Remarkably, his argument that the corporate form secures property against insider defection and against outsiders anticipated recent work on entity shielding and capital lock-in, and can be read as an early contribution to what today would be called the theory of the firm.Peer reviewe

Bostonia: The Boston University Alumni Magazine. Volume 10

Founded in 1900, Bostonia magazine is Boston University's main alumni publication, which covers alumni and student life, as well as university activities, events, and programs

Lyapunov spectral analysis of a nonequilibrium Ising-like transition

By simulating a nonequilibrium coupled map lattice that undergoes an Ising-like phase transition, we show that the Lyapunov spectrum and related dynamical quantities such as the dimension correlation length~$\xi_\delta$ are insensitive to the onset of long-range ferromagnetic order. As a function of lattice coupling constant~$g$ and for certain lattice maps, the Lyapunov dimension density and other dynamical order parameters go through a minimum. The occurrence of this minimum as a function of~$g$ depends on the number of nearest neighbors of a lattice point but not on the lattice symmetry, on the lattice dimensionality or on the position of the Ising-like transition. In one-space dimension, the spatial correlation length associated with magnitude fluctuations and the length~$\xi_\delta$ are approximately equal, with both varying linearly with the radius of the lattice coupling.Comment: 29 pages of text plus 15 figures, uses REVTeX macros. Submitted to Phys. Rev. E