Microclimate affects landscape level persistence in the British Lepidoptera

Microclimate has been known to drive variation in the distribution and abundance of insects for some time. Until recently however, quantification of microclimatic effects has been limited by computing constraints and the availability of fine-scale biological data. Here, we tested fine-scale patterns of persistence/extinction in butterflies and moths against two computed indices of microclimate derived from Digital Elevation Models: a summer solar index, representing fine-scale variation in temperature, and a topographic wetness index, representing fine-scale variation in moisture availability. We found evidence of microclimate effects on persistence in each of four 20 × 20 km British landscapes selected for study (the Brecks, the Broads, Dartmoor, and Exmoor). Broadly, local extinctions occurred more frequently in areas with higher minimum or maximum solar radiation input, while responses to wetness varied with landscape context. This negative response to solar radiation is consistent with a response to climatic warming, wherein grid squares with particularly high minimum or maximum insolation values provided an increasingly adverse microclimate as the climate warmed. The variable response to wetness in different landscapes may have reflected spatially variable trends in precipitation. We suggest that locations in the landscape featuring cooler minimum and/or maximum temperatures could act as refugia from climatic warming, and may therefore have a valuable role in adapting conservation to climatic change

Biodiversity 2020: climate change evaluation report

In 2011, the government published Biodiversity 2020: A strategy for England’s wildlife and ecosystem services [1]. This strategy for England builds on the 2011 Natural Environment White Paper - NEWP [2] and provides a comprehensive picture of how we are implementing our international and EU commitments. It sets out the strategic direction for biodiversity policy between 2011-2020 on land (including rivers and lakes) and at sea, and forms part of the UK’s commitments under the ‘the Aichi targets’ agreed in 2010 under the United Nations Convention of Biological Diversity’s Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 [3]. Defra is committed to evaluating the Biodiversity 2020 strategy and has a public commitment to assess climate change adaptation measures. This document sets out the information on assessing how action under Biodiversity 2020 has helped our wildlife and ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Biodiversity 2020 aims to halt the loss of biodiversity and restore functioning ecosystems for wildlife and for people. The outcomes and actions in Biodiversity 2020, although wider in scope, aimed to increase resilience of our wildlife and ecosystems in the face of a changing climate. In order to inform the assessment, we have defined which of the measurable outputs under Biodiversity 2020 contribute to resilience. Biodiversity 2020 included plans to develop and publish a dedicated set of indicators to assess progress towards the delivery of the strategy. The latest list (at the time of writing), published in 2017, contains 24 biodiversity indicators [4] that would help inform progress towards achieving specific outcomes, they are also highly relevant to the outputs (detailed below) that form the basis for this evaluation. The Adaptation Sub-Committee’s 2017 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Evidence Report [5] sets out the priority climate change risks and opportunities for the UK. The ASC also produced a review of progress in the National Adaptation Programme - “Progress in preparing for climate change” [6], which highlights adaptation priorities and progress being made towards achieving them. The UK Government’s response to the ASC [7] review includes a set of recommendations, of which Recommendation 6 states that “Action should be taken to enhance the condition of priority habitats and the abundance and range of priority species”. The recommendation further iterated that “This action should maintain or extend the level of ambition that was included in Biodiversity 2020” and that “An evaluation should be undertaken of Biodiversity 2020 including the extent to which goals have been met and of the implications for resilience to climate change.” To this, end an evaluation process has been put in place to define: a. What worked and why? Which actions or activities have had the greatest benefit in terms of delivering the desired outcomes? And, conversely, what prevented progress? b. Where are the opportunities? What are the financial, political, scientific and social opportunities for furthering the desired outcomes in the future? These objectives underpin the evaluation process for actions to date, and will also inform future actions and the iteration of a new nature strategy for England

Geographical range margins of many taxonomic groups continue to shift polewards

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups

A national-scale assessment of climate change impacts on species: assessing the balance of risks and opportunities for multiple taxa

It is important for conservationists to be able to assess the risks that climate change poses to species, in order to inform decision making. Using standardised and repeatable methods, we present a national-scale assessment of the risks of range loss and opportunities for range expansion, that climate change could pose for over 3,000 plants and animals that occur in England. A basic risk assessment that compared projected future changes in potential range with recently observed changes classified 21% of species as being at high risk and 6% at medium risk of range loss under a B1 climate change scenario. A greater number of species were classified as having a medium (16%) or high (38%) opportunity to potentially expand their distribution. A more comprehensive assessment, incorporating additional ecological information, including potentially confounding and exacerbating factors, was applied to 402 species, of which 35 % were at risk of range loss and 42 % may expand their range extent. This study covers a temperate region with a significant proportion of species at their poleward range limit. The balance of risks and opportunities from climate change may be different elsewhere. The outcome of both risk assessments varied between taxonomic groups, with bryophytes and vascular plants containing the greatest proportion of species at risk from climate change. Upland habitats contained more species at risk than other habitats. Whilst the overall pattern was clear, confidence was generally low for individual assessments, with the exception of well-studied taxa such as birds. In response to climate change, nature conservation needs to plan for changing species distributions and increasing uncertainty of the future

Altered Gene Expression in Pulmonary Tissue of Tryptophan Hydroxylase-1 Knockout Mice: Implications for Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension

The use of fenfluramines can increase the risk of developing pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) in humans, but the mechanisms responsible are unresolved. A recent study reported that female mice lacking the gene for tryptophan hydroxylase-1 (Tph1(−/−) mice) were protected from PAH caused by chronic dexfenfluramine, suggesting a pivotal role for peripheral serotonin (5-HT) in the disease process. Here we tested two alternative hypotheses which might explain the lack of dexfenfluramine-induced PAH in Tph1(−/−) mice. We postulated that: 1) Tph1(−/−) mice express lower levels of pulmonary 5-HT transporter (SERT) when compared to wild-type controls, and 2) Tph1(−/−) mice display adaptive changes in the expression of non-serotonergic pulmonary genes which are implicated in PAH. SERT was measured using radioligand binding methods, whereas gene expression was measured using microarrays followed by quantitative real time PCR (qRT-PCR). Contrary to our first hypothesis, the number of pulmonary SERT sites was modestly up-regulated in female Tph1(−/−) mice. The expression of 51 distinct genes was significantly altered in the lungs of female Tph1(−/−) mice. Consistent with our second hypothesis, qRT-PCR confirmed that at least three genes implicated in the pathogenesis of PAH were markedly up-regulated: Has2, Hapln3 and Retlna. The finding that female Tph1(−/−) mice are protected from dexfenfluramine-induced PAH could be related to compensatory changes in pulmonary gene expression, in addition to reductions in peripheral 5-HT. These observations emphasize the intrinsic limitation of interpreting data from studies conducted in transgenic mice that are not fully characterized

Global importance of large-diameter trees

Aim: To examine the contribution of large‐diameter trees to biomass, stand structure, and species richness across forest biomes. Location: Global. Time period: Early 21st century. Major taxa studied: Woody plants. Methods: We examined the contribution of large trees to forest density, richness and biomass using a global network of 48 large (from 2 to 60 ha) forest plots representing 5,601,473 stems across 9,298 species and 210 plant families. This contribution was assessed using three metrics: the largest 1% of trees ≥ 1 cm diameter at breast height (DBH), all trees ≥ 60 cm DBH, and those rank‐ordered largest trees that cumulatively comprise 50% of forest biomass. Results: Averaged across these 48 forest plots, the largest 1% of trees ≥ 1 cm DBH comprised 50% of aboveground live biomass, with hectare‐scale standard deviation of 26%. Trees ≥ 60 cm DBH comprised 41% of aboveground live tree biomass. The size of the largest trees correlated with total forest biomass (r2 = .62, p < .001). Large‐diameter trees in high biomass forests represented far fewer species relative to overall forest richness (r2 = .45, p < .001). Forests with more diverse large‐diameter tree communities were comprised of smaller trees (r2 = .33, p < .001). Lower large‐diameter richness was associated with large‐diameter trees being individuals of more common species (r2 = .17, p = .002). The concentration of biomass in the largest 1% of trees declined with increasing absolute latitude (r2 = .46, p < .001), as did forest density (r2 = .31, p < .001). Forest structural complexity increased with increasing absolute latitude (r2 = .26, p < .001). Main conclusions: Because large‐diameter trees constitute roughly half of the mature forest biomass worldwide, their dynamics and sensitivities to environmental change represent potentially large controls on global forest carbon cycling. We recommend managing forests for conservation of existing large‐diameter trees or those that can soon reach large diameters as a simple way to conserve and potentially enhance ecosystem services

Key Parameters of Face Shape Variation in 3D in a Large Sample

Improvement of methods for evidential facial comparison for the Courts relies on the collection of large databases of facial images that permit the analysis of face shape variation and the development of statistical tools. In this paper, we present a short description and key findings of an anthropometric study of face shape variation in three-dimensions. We used Statistical Shape Analysis to investigate a large database sample (n = 1968), classified by age and gender. We found that size, shape of the bilateral features and midline contributed successively to overall variation. Face size is associated with age. Sexual dimorphism is evident in size and shape, and shows patterns that affect male and female subjects differently. We anticipate this approach will lend itself to the development of methods for analysis of variation within subject groups and the establishment of the relative uniqueness or abundance of facial measurements within them

Natural environment and assets [Chapter 3]

Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London. This chapter assesses the climate-related risks and opportunities for the UK’s natural environment in support of the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3)

Environmental myopia: A diagnosis and a remedy

Long-term ecological observation affords a picture of the past that uniquely informs our understanding of present and future ecological communities and processes. Without a long-term perspective, our vision is prone to environmental myopia. Long-term experiments (LTEs) in particular can reveal the mechanisms that underlie change in communities and ecosystem functioning in a way that cannot be understood by long-term monitoring alone. Despite the urgent need to know more about how climate change will affect ecosystems and their functioning, the continued existence of LTEs is extremely precarious and we believe that dedicated funds are needed to support them. A new non-profit organization called the Ecological Continuity Trust seeks to provide a solution to this problem by establishing an endowment that will be specifically earmarked to sustain LTEs as a scientific tool for the benefit of future generations