23 research outputs found
McClear: a new model estimating downwelling solar radiation at ground level in clear-sky conditions
International audienceA new fast clear-sky model called McClear was developed to estimate the downwelling shortwave direct and global irradiances received at ground level under clear skies. It is a fully physical model replacing empirical relations or simpler models used before. It exploits the recent results on aerosol properties, and total column content in water vapour and ozone produced by the MACC project (Monitoring Atmosphere Composition and Climate). It accurately reproduces the irradiance computed by the libRadtran reference radiative transfer model with a computational speed approximately 105 times greater by adopting the abaci, or look-up table, approach combined with interpolation functions. It is therefore suited for geostationary satellite retrievals or numerical weather prediction schemes with many pixels or grid points, respectively. McClear irradiances were compared to 1 min measurements made in clear-sky conditions at several stations within the Baseline Surface Radiation Network in various climates. The bias for global irradiance comprises between â6 and 25Wmâ2. The RMSE ranges from 20Wmâ2 (3% of the mean observed irradiance) to 36Wmâ2 (5 %) and the correlation coefficient ranges between 0.95 and 0.99. The bias for the direct irradiance comprises between â48 and +33Wmâ2. The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 33Wmâ2 (5 %) to 64Wmâ2 (10 %). The correlation coefficient ranges between 0.84 and 0.98. This work demonstrates the quality of the McClear model combined with MACC products, and indirectly the quality of the aerosol properties modelled by the MACC reanalysis
the numerics of physical parametrization in the ecmwf model
The numerical aspects of physical parametrization are discussed mainly in the context of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System. Two time integration techniques are discussed. With parallel splitting the tendencies of all the parametrized processes are computed independently of each other. With sequential splitting, tendencies of the explicit processes are computed first and are used as input to the subsequent implicit fast process. It is argued that sequential splitting is better than parallel splitting for problems with multiple time scales, because a balance between processes is obtained during the time integration. It is shown that sequential splitting applied to boundary layer diffusion in the ECMWF model leads to much smaller time truncation errors than does parallel splitting. The so called Semi-Lagrangian Averaging of Physical Parametrizations (SLAVEPP), as implemented in the ECMWF model, is explained. The scheme reduces time truncation errors compared to standard first order methods, although a few implementation questions remain. In the scheme fast and slow processes are handled differently and it remains a research topic to find the optimal way of handling convection and clouds. Process specific numerical issues are discussed in the context of the ECMWF parametrization package. Examples are the non-linear stability problems in the vertical diffusion scheme, the stability related mass flux limit in the convection scheme and the fast processes in the cloud microphysics. Vertical resolution in the land surface scheme is inspired by the requirement to represent diurnal to annual time scales. Finally, a new coupling strategy between atmospheric models and land surface schemes is discussed. It allows for fully implicit coupling also for tiled land surface schemes
Operational Dust Prediction
Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed
Aerosols for Concentrating Solar Electricity Production Forecasts: Requirement Quantification and ECMWF/MACC Aerosol Forecast Assessment
The potential for transferring a larger share of our energy supply toward renewable energy is a widely discussed goal in society, economics, environment, and climate-related programs. For a larger share of electricity to come from fluctuating solar and wind energy-based electricity, production forecasts are required to ensure successful grid integration. Concentrating solar power holds the potential to make the fluctuating solar electricity a dispatchable resource by using both heat storage systems and solar production forecasts based on a reliable weather prediction. These solar technologies exploit the direct irradiance at the surface, which is a quantity very dependent on the aerosol extinction with values up to 100%. Results from present-day numerical weather forecasts are inadequate, as they generally use climatologies for dealing with aerosol extinction. Therefore, meteorological forecasts have to be extended by chemical weather forecasts. The paper aims at quantifying on a global scale the question of whether and where daily mean or hourly forecasts are required, or if persistence is sufficient in some regions. It assesses the performance of recently introduced NWP aerosol schemes by using the ECMWF/Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) forecast, which is a preparatory activity for the upcoming European Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) Atmosphere Service
Evaluation of a cloud system life-cycle simulated by the Meso-NH model during FASTEX using METEOSAT radiances and TOVS-3I cloud retrievals
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Une méthode utilisant les techniques neuronales pour le calcul rapide de la distribution verticale du bilan radiatif thermique terrestre.
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Cloud forcing: A modeling perspective
Radiation fields from a perpetual July integration of a T106 version of the ECMWF operational model are used as surrogate observations of the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere to illustrate various difficulties that modellers might face when trying to reconcile cloud radiation forcings derived from satellite observations with model-generated ones. Differences between the so-called Methods 1 and 2 of Cess and Potter (1987) and a variant Method 3 are addressed. Method 1 is shown to be the least robust of all methods, due to potential uncertainties related to persistent cloudiness, length of the period over which clear-sky conditions are looked for, biases in retrieved clear-sky quantities due to an insufficient sampling of the diurnal cycle. We advocate the use of Method 2 as the only unambiguous one to produce consistent radiative diagnostics for intercomparing model results. Impact of the three methods on the derived sensitivities and cloud feedbacks following an imposed change in sea surface temperature (used as a surrogate climate change) is discussed. 17 refs., 12 figs., 1 tab