In the opponent's shoes: increasing the behavioral validity of attackers' judgments in counterterrorism models

A key objective for policymakers and analysts dealing with terrorist threats is trying to predict the actions that malicious agents may take. A recent trend in counterterrorism risk analysis is to model the terrorists' judgments, as these will guide their choices of such actions. The standard assumptions in most of these models are that terrorists are fully rational, following all the normative desiderata required for rational choices, such as having a set of constant and ordered preferences, being able to perform a cost-benefit analysis of their alternatives, among many others. However, are such assumptions reasonable from a behavioral perspective? In this article, we analyze the types of assumptions made across various counterterrorism analytical models that represent malicious agents' judgments and discuss their suitability from a descriptive point of view. We then suggest how some of these assumptions could be modified to describe terrorists' preferences more accurately, by drawing knowledge from the fields of behavioral decision research, politics, philosophy of choice, public choice, and conflict management in terrorism. Such insight, we hope, might help make the assumptions of these models more behaviorally valid for counterterrorism risk analysis

Understanding the dynamic of tropical agriculture for remote sensing applications: a case study of Southeastern Brazil.

Abstract: The agricultural activity can greatly benefit from remote sensing technology (RS). Optical passive RS has been vastly explored for agricultural mapping and monitoring, in despite of cloud cover issue. This is observed even in the tropics, where frequency of clouds is very high. However, more studies are needed to better understand the high dynamism of tropical agriculture and its impact on the use of passive RS. In tropical countries, such as in Brazil, the use of current agricultural technologies, associated with favourable climate, allow the planting period to be wide and to have plants of varying phenological cycles. In this context, the main objective of the current study is to better understand the dynamics of a selected area in Southeast of São Paulo state, and its impact on the use of orbital passive RS. For that purpose, data (from field and satellite) from 55 agricultural fields, including annual, semi-perennial and perennial crops and silviculture, were acquired between July 2014 and December 2016. Field campaigns were conducted in a monthly base to gather information about the condition of the crops along their development (data available in a website). Field data corresponding to the 2014-2015 crop year were associated with a time series of Landsat-8/OLI RGB false-colour compositions images and MODIS/Terra NDVI profiles. The type of information that can be extracted (such as specie identification, crop management practices adopted, date of harvest, type o production system used etc) by combining passive remote sensing data with field data is discussed in the paper

CSF parvalbumin levels reflect interneuron loss linked with cortical pathology in multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION AND METHODS: In order to verify whether parvalbumin (PVALB), a protein specifically expressed by GABAergic interneurons, could be a MS-specific marker of grey matter neurodegeneration, we performed neuropathology/molecular analysis of PVALB expression in motor cortex of 40 post-mortem progressive MS cases, with/without meningeal inflammation, and 10 control cases, in combination with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) assessment. Analysis of CSF PVALB and neurofilaments (Nf-L) levels combined with physical/cognitive/3TMRI assessment was performed in 110 naïve MS patients and in 32 controls at time of diagnosis. RESULTS: PVALB gene expression was downregulated in MS (fold change = 3.7 ± 1.2, P < 0.001 compared to controls) reflecting the significant reduction of PVALB+ cell density in cortical lesions, to a greater extent in MS patients with high meningeal inflammation (51.8, P < 0.001). Likewise, post-mortem CSF-PVALB levels were higher in MS compared to controls (fold change = 196 ± 36, P < 0.001) and correlated with decreased PVALB+ cell density (r = -0.64, P < 0.001) and increased MHC-II+ microglia density (r = 0.74, P < 0.01), as well as with early age of onset (r = -0.69, P < 0.05), shorter time to wheelchair (r = -0.49, P < 0.05) and early age of death (r = -0.65, P < 0.01). Increased CSF-PVALB levels were detected in MS patients at diagnosis compared to controls (P = 0.002). Significant correlation was found between CSF-PVALB levels and cortical lesion number on MRI (R = 0.28, P = 0.006) and global cortical thickness (R = -0.46, P < 0.001), better than Nf-L levels. CSF-PVALB levels increased in MS patients with severe cognitive impairment (mean ± SEM:25.2 ± 7.5 ng/mL) compared to both cognitively normal (10.9 ± 2.4, P = 0.049) and mild cognitive impaired (10.1 ± 2.9, P = 0.024) patients. CONCLUSIONS: CSF-PVALB levels reflect loss of cortical interneurons in MS patients with more severe disease course and might represent an early, new MS-specific biomarker of cortical neurodegeneration, atrophy, and cognitive decline

Identification of gaps in sugarcane plantations using UAV images.

The objective of this study is to present a methodology for the detection and quantification of gaps formed during planting or growing of sugarcane crops. The use of UAV images for precision agriculture is relevant because it brings new possibilities for improving crop's productivity by feeding the producer with highly accurate data about the crop status

Endoplasmic reticulum stress signalling – from basic mechanisms to clinical applications

The endoplasmic reticulum (ER) is a membranous intracellular organelle and the first compartment of the secretory pathway. As such, the ER contributes to the production and folding of approximately one‐third of cellular proteins, and is thus inextricably linked to the maintenance of cellular homeostasis and the fine balance between health and disease. Specific ER stress signalling pathways, collectively known as the unfolded protein response (UPR), are required for maintaining ER homeostasis. The UPR is triggered when ER protein folding capacity is overwhelmed by cellular demand and the UPR initially aims to restore ER homeostasis and normal cellular functions. However, if this fails, then the UPR triggers cell death. In this review, we provide a UPR signalling‐centric view of ER functions, from the ER's discovery to the latest advancements in the understanding of ER and UPR biology. Our review provides a synthesis of intracellular ER signalling revolving around proteostasis and the UPR, its impact on other organelles and cellular behaviour, its multifaceted and dynamic response to stress and its role in physiology, before finally exploring the potential exploitation of this knowledge to tackle unresolved biological questions and address unmet biomedical needs. Thus, we provide an integrated and global view of existing literature on ER signalling pathways and their use for therapeutic purposes

Behavioral challenges in policy analysis with conflicting objectives

Public policy problems are rife with conflicting objectives: efficiency versus fairness, technical criteria versus political goals, costs versus multiple benefits. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis provides robust methodologies to support policy makers in making tough choices and in designing better policy options when considering these conflicting objectives. However, important behavioral challenges exist in developing these models: the use of expert judgments, whenever evidence is not available; the elicitation of preferences and priorities from policy makers and communities; and the effective management of group decision processes. The extensive developments in behavioral decision research, social psychology, facilitated decision modeling, and incomplete preference models shed light on how decision analysts should address these issues, so we can provide better decision support and develop high quality decision models. In this tutorial I discuss the main findings of these extensive, but rather fragmented, literatures providing a coherent and practical framework for managing behavioral issues, minimizing behavioral biases, and optimizing the quality of human judgments in policy analysis models with conflicting objectives. I illustrate these guidelines with policy analysis interventions that we have conducted over the last decade for several organizations, such as the World Health Organization (WHO), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA), the Malaria Consortium/USAID, the UK National Audit Office, among others

The clinical relevance of oliguria in the critically ill patient : Analysis of a large observational database

Funding Information: Marc Leone reports receiving consulting fees from Amomed and Aguettant; lecture fees from MSD, Pfizer, Octapharma, 3 M, Aspen, Orion; travel support from LFB; and grant support from PHRC IR and his institution. JLV is the Editor-in-Chief of Critical Care. The other authors declare that they have no relevant financial interests. Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Copyright: Copyright 2020 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Background: Urine output is widely used as one of the criteria for the diagnosis and staging of acute renal failure, but few studies have specifically assessed the role of oliguria as a marker of acute renal failure or outcomes in general intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Using a large multinational database, we therefore evaluated the occurrence of oliguria (defined as a urine output 16 years) patients in the ICON audit who had a urine output measurement on the day of admission were included. To investigate the association between oliguria and mortality, we used a multilevel analysis. Results: Of the 8292 patients included, 2050 (24.7%) were oliguric during the first 24 h of admission. Patients with oliguria on admission who had at least one additional 24-h urine output recorded during their ICU stay (n = 1349) were divided into three groups: transient - oliguria resolved within 48 h after the admission day (n = 390 [28.9%]), prolonged - oliguria resolved > 48 h after the admission day (n = 141 [10.5%]), and permanent - oliguria persisting for the whole ICU stay or again present at the end of the ICU stay (n = 818 [60.6%]). ICU and hospital mortality rates were higher in patients with oliguria than in those without, except for patients with transient oliguria who had significantly lower mortality rates than non-oliguric patients. In multilevel analysis, the need for RRT was associated with a significantly higher risk of death (OR = 1.51 [95% CI 1.19-1.91], p = 0.001), but the presence of oliguria on admission was not (OR = 1.14 [95% CI 0.97-1.34], p = 0.103). Conclusions: Oliguria is common in ICU patients and may have a relatively benign nature if only transient. The duration of oliguria and need for RRT are associated with worse outcome.publishersversionPeer reviewe